Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,597
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    DAinDC
    Newest Member
    DAinDC
    Joined

April 2022


bluewave
 Share

Recommended Posts

The next 8 days are averaging  50degs.(44/55) or about +1.

Reached 57 here yesterday around 5pm.

Today: T steady 44-46, cloudy, a few hours of rain, wind e. to s. to w. to nw. and breezy late, 38 by tomorrow AM.

Still watching for a run at 80 degrees during April 12th-16th.

The 5-Day Period centered on the 15th.:

1650196800-cBQ0WDxvozI.png

44*(81%RH) here at 7am.      48* at 9am.     50* at 10am.     46* at Noon.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Morning thoughts…

It will become partly to mostly cloudy with some showers and periods of light rain. Parts of northwest New Jersey and adjacent Pennsylvania and New York State could see some early snow. High temperatures will likely reach the lower and middle 50s in much of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 52°

Newark: 52°

Philadelphia: 58°

Temperatures will be near or somewhat below normal through midweek.

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 56.6°; 15-Year: 57.5°

Newark: 30-Year: 57.4°; 15-Year: 58.1°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 59.7°; 15-Year: 60.3°

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

It will be interesting to see how long the mid month more spring-like pattern can last. The week 3 EPS and GEFS try to bring back some blocking around the 20th. While there will still be a SE Ridge, it could mean occasional back doors and stalled frontal zones between the warmer days. We’ll get some hints when the new extended EPS comes out tomorrow.


April 18-25 EPS 

 

AAEBD9FD-FF2F-4CF3-8F32-682F36AFEA32.jpeg.ffc3f3e65e8bb4ec64326f87728bb50c.jpeg

 

April 20th GEFS

 

08EC6A2C-615A-40A3-8552-F54E372EDB16.thumb.png.cf715dbf76b1e5bb621cc5c6fa515cc8.png

 

  • Like 4
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

It will be interesting to see how long the mid month more spring-like pattern can last. The week 3 EPS and GEFS try to bring back some blocking around the 20th. While there will still be a SE Ridge, it could mean occasional back doors and stalled frontal zones between the warmer days. We’ll get some hints when the new extended EPS comes out tomorrow.

Probably going to be the classic back and forth pattern.  Get a tease of 70+ for a week and then be met with backdoors and rain the next.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

So here in Sussex County, I did a ride up to High Point State Park (attached)... that 1/2" grass is just under 1500' 2 hrs after max accumulation and temp in the mid 30s.  Snow accumulation began around 1250' up there (as of 1PM equated to 2 hours of melting).

 

The HP Monument had 1.5" and many reports in the Poconos of 1-2", also generally above 1500 feet.  R/S mix down to 700 feet here in Wantage but barely could see the snow except windshield splatter-most folks at 700 feet probably didn't notice.  

IMG-2868.jpg

  • Like 10
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Dry conditions with near normal temperatures will return on tomorrow. However, the dry conditions will be short-lived. Rain and showers will return Tuesday and could linger through at least Thursday.

Overall, the week will see mainly near normal temperatures. Late in the second week of the month, there are some hints on the guidance that noticeably warmer air could try to move into the region.

It is possible that New York City's Central Park has seen its last freeze of the season. Overall, April could wind up near to somewhat warmer normal overall in the northern Mid-Atlantic region.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.9°C for the week centered around March 23. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.92°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.88°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist into at least mid-April.

The SOI was +4.25 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.457 today.

On April 1 the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 0.686 (RMM). The March 31-adjusted amplitude was 0.772 (RMM).

 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Morning thoughts…

It will be partly sunny with readings near or just below seasonable levels. High temperatures will likely reach the middle 50s in much of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 55°

Newark: 56°

Philadelphia: 57°

Temperatures will be near or somewhat below normal through midweek.

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 57.0°; 15-Year: 57.5°

Newark: 30-Year: 57.9°; 15-Year: 58.5°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 60.1°; 15-Year: 60.7°

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The next 8 days are averaging 50degs.(44/56) or +1.

Reached 50 here yesterday.

Today: 51-54, wind nw. and calming down, p. sunny, 45 tomorrow AM.

Still looking for 70 to 80 degrees April 12-16.     Then back to Normal or less.     Any 80 might hold for a while after that---as highest T to date.

40*(67%RH) here at 7am.      45* at 10am.        49* at Noon.     50* at 1pm.      53* at 2pm.    54* at 3pm.        51* at 8pm.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Looks like a wet week coming up. There is still a bit of spread on the exact storm tracks and rainfall amounts. I wonder if the missing balloon soundings have degraded some of the model output?

 

 

The gfs nam and euro seem to agree on at least .5 perhaps up to 1" for each round

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 hours ago, jm1220 said:

Glad this is after it would be a snow event. Next storm tomorrow night is trending to how others did this winter into a shredded suppressed mess. Hopefully it can be salvageable for places SW of here now in a drought.

the driest models came a bit north so far on the 0z runs so maybe we can still get 1" from this system

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Snow on the sides of the road started west of Middletown this morning and above 1500, all the way to Binghamton and then above about 800 up to Syracuse had fresh accumulations from yesterday. It wasn't much but made for a nice ride with greenery doing its best in the face of our stupid new spring weather pattern, the contrast between fresh white and green was nice.

Tuesday night should be just wet right? I'll be driving in late, won't be leaving Buffalo until about 3 then making a beeline for home.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Rain and showers will return late tomorrow and could linger through at least Thursday.

Overall, the week will see mainly near normal temperatures. Late in the second week of the month, there are some hints on the guidance that noticeably warmer air could try to move into the region.

It is possible that New York City's Central Park has seen its last freeze of the season. Overall, April could wind up near to somewhat warmer normal overall in the northern Mid-Atlantic region.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around March 30. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.80°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.90°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist into at least mid-April.

The SOI was +14.85 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.360 today.

On April 2 the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 0.496 (RMM). The April 1-adjusted amplitude was 0.667 (RMM).

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...