April 2022

[LoboLeader1]

Currently 51 and cloudy here as of 6AM. Reached a high of 57yesterday.

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts…

It will be variably cloudy. Some showers and thundershowers are possible during the afternoon or evening. High temperatures will likely reach the lower and middle 60s in much of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 63°

Newark: 65°

Philadelphia: 72°

A cooler pattern will develop starting tomorrow

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 66.0°; 15-Year: 66.4°

Newark: 30-Year: 66.8°; 15-Year: 67.2°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 68.7°; 15-Year: 69.1°

[CIK62]

The last 5 days of April are averaging 52degs.(44/60) or -5.

Month to date is  52.8[+0.1].        April should end at  52.7[-1.0].

Reached 59 here yesterday.

Today: 58-63, wind e. to n., cloudy, drizzle late, 47 by tomorrow AM.

55*(70%RH) here at 7am.{was 52 at 2am}      63* at Noon.      65* at 2pm.      Reached 69* at 5pm.        61* at 7pm.

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

Other then 33 and rain my least favorite type of weather. For some reason these types of data always feel cooler then the actual air temp, it’s like the opposite of humidity at a higher temp 

[bluewave]

Not much difference between the warmest temperatures in late February and April this year. Low 70s will be the max for both periods. We were also close in 2020. The most extreme was the 80° in late February 2018 and only 70 in late April.
 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Ending Date	Highest Max Temperature Feb 20 to Feb 28	Apr 20 to Apr 30
2022-02-28	70	72    +2
2021-02-28	54	89  +35
2020-02-29	62	68   +6
2019-02-28	52	78   +26
2018-02-28	80	70   -10
2017-02-28	74	86   +12
2016-02-29	64	83   +19
2015-02-28	42	78   +36
2014-02-28	54	76   +22
2013-02-28	51	71   +20
2012-02-29	60	74   +14
2011-02-28	61	85  +24
2010-02-28	50	81   +31

 

[Brian5671]

1 hour ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Other then 33 and rain my least favorite type of weather. For some reason these types of data always feel cooler then the actual air temp, it’s like the opposite of humidity at a higher temp 

Nasty out there with mist and drizzle it's 50 here but feels like the 30's.

[snowman19]

3 hours ago, bluewave said:

Not much difference between the warmest temperatures in late February and April this year. Low 70s will be the max for both periods. We were also close in 2020. The most extreme was the 80° in late February 2018 and only 70 in late April.
 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Ending Date	Highest Max Temperature Feb 20 to Feb 28	Apr 20 to Apr 30
2022-02-28	70	72    +2
2021-02-28	54	89  +35
2020-02-29	62	68   +6
2019-02-28	52	78   +26
2018-02-28	80	70   -10
2017-02-28	74	86   +12
2016-02-29	64	83   +19
2015-02-28	42	78   +36
2014-02-28	54	76   +22
2013-02-28	51	71   +20
2012-02-29	60	74   +14
2011-02-28	61	85  +24
2010-02-28	50	81   +31

 

Continuing to look increasingly likely that we see a very rare 3rd year La Niña this upcoming fall and winter. Looks to possibly be a Modoki La Niña taking shape: 

 

 

[Eduardo]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

Continuing to look increasingly likely that we see a very rare 3rd year La Niña this upcoming fall and winter. Looks to possibly be a Modoki La Niña taking shape: 

 

 

Still very very early in the game, but it wouldn't surprise me since "stuck patterns" seem to be the norm over the past half-decade or so....

[bluewave]

3 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Continuing to look increasingly likely that we see a very rare 3rd year La Niña this upcoming fall and winter. Looks to possibly be a Modoki La Niña taking shape: 

It will be interesting to see if the models are correct about the near record  summer -IOD.

 

[snowman19]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

It will be interesting to see if the models are correct about the near record  summer -IOD.

 

Yes, if the models are correct, this -IOD event may be one of the strongest in history, possibly even the strongest 

[bkviking]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

It will be interesting to see if the models are correct about the near record  summer -IOD.

 

Does this lead to increased tropical activity in the Atlantic? Didn’t we just go through this a few years ago? 

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

Yes, if the models are correct, this -IOD event may be one of the strongest in history, possibly even the strongest 

A bit different from our last two strong summer -IOD events. The summer 2016 and 2010 -IOD patterns came at the start of those two year La Niña events. If the models are correct, then this could be the strongest -IOD between the 2nd and potentially 3rd year La Niña. But anything is possible with those record SSTs north of Australia. The trade winds in the Central Pacific  have been at record levels for the early spring since 1979.

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/april-2022-la-niña-update-measuring

As I mentioned above, stronger trade winds are key to the La Niña feedback between the ocean and atmosphere. The trade winds were enhanced through March, and remain stronger than average into mid-April. You want a number, you say? Okay! There’s an index that measures the near-surface winds in the central Pacific region of 5°N–5°S, 175°W–140°W; it was 4.3 meters per second (9.6 miles per hour) faster than average in March. This is the strongest March value on record, but there’s a catch—this record only goes back to 1979.

 

 

[Nibor]

Cool and humid is gross. 

[donsutherland1]

The cold front responsible for today's showers will usher in a period of cooler than normal weather that will likely persist through the middle of the first week of May on account of the ongoing blocking.

During the 1991-2020 period, the April 25-May 5 period saw temperatures average 1°-2° below normal when strong blocking coincided with Niña conditions. Afterward, approximately 50% of such cases went on to see a warmer to much warmer than normal second half of May.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.9°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.0°C for the week centered around April 20. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.98°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.92°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist into the start of June.

The SOI was +27.11 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.444 today.

On April 24 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 0.379 (RMM). The April 23-adjusted amplitude was 0.557 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 96% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal April (1991-2020 normal). April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 52.6° (1.1° below normal).

 

[Santa Claus]

so bored

can we have a life-altering flood event already please

[Rmine1]

Well that rain threat disappointed

[snowman19]

13 hours ago, bluewave said:

A bit different from our last two strong summer -IOD events. The summer 2016 and 2010 -IOD patterns came at the start of those two year La Niña events. If the models are correct, then this could be the strongest -IOD between the 2nd and potentially 3rd year La Niña. But anything is possible with those record SSTs north of Australia. The trade winds in the Central Pacific  have been at record levels for the early spring since 1979.

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/april-2022-la-niña-update-measuring

As I mentioned above, stronger trade winds are key to the La Niña feedback between the ocean and atmosphere. The trade winds were enhanced through March, and remain stronger than average into mid-April. You want a number, you say? Okay! There’s an index that measures the near-surface winds in the central Pacific region of 5°N–5°S, 175°W–140°W; it was 4.3 meters per second (9.6 miles per hour) faster than average in March. This is the strongest March value on record, but there’s a catch—this record only goes back to 1979.

 

 

This is going to be a very interesting year I think, not going to be very many analogs…possible very rare 3rd year (Modoki?) La Niña, possible record -IOD event, likely -PDO/-PMM continuing as well as record warm Atlantic SSTs along and off the SE coast also likely to continue 

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts…

It will be partly sunny and cool. Some scattered showers are possible this afternoon or evening. High temperatures will likely reach the middle and upper 50s in much of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 63°

Newark: 65°

Philadelphia: 72°

Below normal temperatures will persist through the middle of the first week of May.

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 66.3°; 15-Year: 66.8°

Newark: 30-Year: 67.1°; 15-Year: 67.6°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 69.1°; 15-Year: 69.5°

[CIK62]

The last 4 days of April are averaging 50degs.(41/59) or -7.

Month to date is  52.9[Normal].      April should end at  52.5[-1.2].

Reached 66 here yesterday.

Today: 53-58 early, wind w., breezy, p. cloudy then clearing, 39 by tomorrow AM.

49*(51%RH) here at 7am{was 58* at Midnight}.     51* at 9am.        55* at 1pm.       45* at 9pm.

 

 

[LoboLeader1]

47 here as of 7:30AM. Topped out at 57 yesterday.

[Volcanic Winter]

What would be the impact of a Modoki La Niña on our weather if one were to form? What is the difference in general? 
 

I read about Modoki El Niño’s before and IIRC it refers to cooler water off the western coast of South America than would be otherwise expected. 

[dmillz25]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Big weather swings pattern continuing. The Buffalo area went from a weak tornado to a daily snowfall record. Late season freeze for the interior tonight with 30s to the coast.

 

 

 

This sucks. Hopefully it ends soon and we get consistent 70s

[dmillz25]

1 minute ago, Volcanic Winter said:

What would be the impact of a Modoki La Niña on our weather if one were to form? What is the difference in general? 
 

I read about Modoki El Niño’s before and IIRC it refers to cooler water off the western coast of South America than would be otherwise expected. 

When I think of a modoki la niña I think of it being similar to an east based el niño which isn’t good normally for snow prospects in our area unless there’s blocking involved 

[Volcanic Winter]

As an ode to my username, it’s very interesting that recent analyses are concluding that Hunga Tonga actually was a very large VEI 5 to even potentially VEI 6 Pinatubo sized eruption. That would’ve been enough to have a very substantial climate impact, had Hunga Tonga not released only about 1/40th of the sulfur as Pinatubo. Looks like the majority of it leached /reacted into the ocean instead of being blasted into the stratosphere. 
 

Pinatubo is the only modern eruption to cause a volcanic winter (to a lesser extent El Chicón as well), would’ve been very interesting to see how a similarly sized eruption would impact the current climate with 30 years of additional warming. Pinatubo was something like a -1.5F anomaly overall. 
 

Pinatubo even cooled SST’s for a few years. When I have time I can pull up a very interesting article from a physicist I follow about this if anyone were interested. 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

Precip fail yesterday as we head into another quick dry up. Feast or famine rain patterns are the new normal. 

[Brian5671]

5 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Precip fail yesterday as we head into another quick dry up. Feast or famine rain patterns are the new normal. 

barely anything here-some drizzle and a light shower or two.

[snowman19]

2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

This is going to be a very interesting year I think, not going to be very many analogs…possible very rare 3rd year (Modoki?) La Niña, possible record -IOD event, likely -PDO/-PMM continuing as well as record warm Atlantic SSTs along and off the SE coast also likely to continue 

Also, going to be +QBO assuming a normal progression 

[SnoSki14]

1 hour ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Precip fail yesterday as we head into another quick dry up. Feast or famine rain patterns are the new normal. 

The famine won't last for much longer. 

[Eduardo]

2 hours ago, dmillz25 said:

When I think of a modoki la niña I think of it being similar to an east based el niño which isn’t good normally for snow prospects in our area unless there’s blocking involved 

Yeah I think this is right.  -IOD also tends to yield cooler summers and milder winters, IIRC.  But someone correct me if I'm wrong on that.

[bluewave]

19 hours ago, bkviking said:

Does this lead to increased tropical activity in the Atlantic? Didn’t we just go through this a few years ago? 

The general rule is we get more active Atlantic hurricane seasons with a La Niña and warm Atlantic SSTs. A -IOD serves to enhance the La Niña background state with stronger trade winds. The last strong summer -IOD was in 2016 and helped to shift the super El Niño to a 2 year La Niña.
 

Causes and Predictability of the Negative Indian Ocean Dipole and Its Impact on La Niña During 2016

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-017-12674-z