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April 2022


bluewave
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Tomorrow will be variably cloudy and pleasant. The ongoing blocking will likely lead to a more sustained cool pattern that could last into the beginning of May. The coolest period will likely occur from the middle of next week through the middle of the first week of May.

During the 1991-2020 period, the April 25-May 5 period saw temperatures average 1°-2° below normal when strong blocking coincided with Niña conditions. Afterward, approximately 50% of such cases went on to see a warmer to much warmer than normal second half of May.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.9°C for the week centered around April 13. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.80°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.88°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist into the start of June.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly of -1.7°C is the lowest such figure on record for a week centered around April 13. The old record was -1.4°C, which was set in 1994. Since 1982, there were five prior cases where the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.5°C or colder. 40% of those cases saw La Niña conditions the following winter; 40% saw neutral-cool ENSO conditions that approached but did not reach La Niña status. 20% of those cases saw an El Niño develop during the following winter. More immediately, the magnitude of cool anomalies implies that the proverbial stage is set for an active to very active Atlantic hurricane season.

The SOI was +15.28 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.687 today.

On April 22 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 0.787 (RMM). The April 21-adjusted amplitude was 1.168 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 84% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal April (1991-2020 normal). April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 52.8° (0.9° below normal).

 

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50 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

but this seems to happen every winter....why cant the SPV be strong in the Spring and the nao blocking be strong in the Winter?

 

is there a connection with a strong PV and little blocking...2020-21 had some strong blocking in February...

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Morning thoughts…

It will be partly to mostly cloudy. High temperatures will likely reach the lower and middle 60s in much of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 61°

Newark: 61°

Philadelphia: 66°

A cooler pattern will develop at midweek.

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 65.6°; 15-Year: 66.0°

Newark: 30-Year: 66.4°; 15-Year: 66.9°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 68.4°; 15-Year: 68.8°

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The last 6 days of April are averaging 51degs.(44/58) or -6.

Month to date is 52.8[+0.2].    April should end at  52.4[-1.3].

Reached 62 here yesterday at 6pm---early peak at 9am of 59.

Today: 56-59, wind e., p. cloudy, 48 by tomorrow AM.

Looks mostly dry for the next 10 days.

51*(61%RH) here at 7am.       56* at 9am.       60* at Noon.      T spent the whole afternoon stuck at 57* after a quick noon drop off.      53* at 10pm.

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On 4/11/2022 at 11:36 AM, gravitylover said:

 

I never expect full leaf out here until the third week of April but, as usual, "green up" has started. The buds are filling out on almost everything and some things like berries and rhododendrons are bursting today. There's a very noticeable difference in the ground moisture as every plant around started sucking the ground dry last week to make it happen so even with the recent rain it's not as soggy as you'd expect. It's almost here, pretty much right on time.

I recall April 3rd and 4th 1988 being 87°.  Was on my first route and would have welcomed some shade, but trees were barely beginning to leaf-out so no such luck.

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The latest EPS shifts  the -AO block in late April to more of an omega block in early May. So a continuation of the generally cooler  pattern. Could see above normal rainfall in early May with a strong Pacific Jet undercutting the block. 

Apr 25 to May 2

D9816DB1-503E-4B20-8E39-DE6901CD8ABC.jpeg.7981207ff59c90010d1792fbd70874b3.jpeg

 

May 2 to May 9


08378D55-7EE5-4368-AF2A-AEDE3E121189.jpeg.025a9c56004241c7000376b033f812e4.jpeg


02AD31FF-F275-4657-8113-501FE4C8AE4E.thumb.png.6183d6076f356d521ae46a2d7b849ff7.png


 

 

 

 

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Tomorrow will be variably cloudy and mild. Some showers or perhaps a thundershower are possible. Afterward, the ongoing blocking will likely lead to a more sustained cool pattern that could last into the beginning of May. The coolest period will likely occur from the middle of next week through the middle of the first week of May.

During the 1991-2020 period, the April 25-May 5 period saw temperatures average 1°-2° below normal when strong blocking coincided with Niña conditions. Afterward, approximately 50% of such cases went on to see a warmer to much warmer than normal second half of May.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.9°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.0°C for the week centered around April 20. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.98°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.92°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist into the start of June.

The SOI was +18.17 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.773 today.

On April 23 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 0.562 (RMM). The April 22-adjusted amplitude was 0.786 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 91% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal April (1991-2020 normal). April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 52.7° (1.0° below normal).

 

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