forkyfork Posted April 24, 2022 Share Posted April 24, 2022 remember when backdoor fronts meant 40s with fog 2 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted April 24, 2022 Share Posted April 24, 2022 21 minutes ago, forkyfork said: remember when backdoor fronts meant 40s with fog That's a bit of a stretch in late April. It happens but it's rare. That being said once the blocking ends we'll pretty much enter summer so mid-late May onwards. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted April 24, 2022 Share Posted April 24, 2022 58 down from 60...back door front clouds... 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted April 24, 2022 Share Posted April 24, 2022 5 hours ago, bluewave said: One of the few times that such a strong SE Ridge gets overpowered by the -NAO block. why doesnt this happen in winter? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted April 24, 2022 Share Posted April 24, 2022 Hit 60 early this morning here, now down to 53 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Star Posted April 24, 2022 Share Posted April 24, 2022 43 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: why doesnt this happen in winter? One reason is the water is too cold for fog... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 24, 2022 Author Share Posted April 24, 2022 1 hour ago, LibertyBell said: why doesnt this happen in winter? The SPV was too strong this winter. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoboLeader1 Posted April 24, 2022 Share Posted April 24, 2022 Gorgeous wx today, topped out at 58 earlier today. Currently 55. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted April 24, 2022 Share Posted April 24, 2022 57 minutes ago, bluewave said: The SPV was too strong this winter. but this seems to happen every winter....why cant the SPV be strong in the Spring and the nao blocking be strong in the Winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted April 24, 2022 Share Posted April 24, 2022 Tomorrow will be variably cloudy and pleasant. The ongoing blocking will likely lead to a more sustained cool pattern that could last into the beginning of May. The coolest period will likely occur from the middle of next week through the middle of the first week of May. During the 1991-2020 period, the April 25-May 5 period saw temperatures average 1°-2° below normal when strong blocking coincided with Niña conditions. Afterward, approximately 50% of such cases went on to see a warmer to much warmer than normal second half of May. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.9°C for the week centered around April 13. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.80°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.88°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist into the start of June. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly of -1.7°C is the lowest such figure on record for a week centered around April 13. The old record was -1.4°C, which was set in 1994. Since 1982, there were five prior cases where the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.5°C or colder. 40% of those cases saw La Niña conditions the following winter; 40% saw neutral-cool ENSO conditions that approached but did not reach La Niña status. 20% of those cases saw an El Niño develop during the following winter. More immediately, the magnitude of cool anomalies implies that the proverbial stage is set for an active to very active Atlantic hurricane season. The SOI was +15.28 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.687 today. On April 22 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 0.787 (RMM). The April 21-adjusted amplitude was 1.168 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 84% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal April (1991-2020 normal). April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 52.8° (0.9° below normal). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted April 24, 2022 Share Posted April 24, 2022 4 hours ago, forkyfork said: remember when backdoor fronts meant 40s with fog it only happens in May now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted April 24, 2022 Share Posted April 24, 2022 50 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: but this seems to happen every winter....why cant the SPV be strong in the Spring and the nao blocking be strong in the Winter? is there a connection with a strong PV and little blocking...2020-21 had some strong blocking in February... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Byrdhousebv Posted April 24, 2022 Share Posted April 24, 2022 Currently 48/34. A perfect spring day. This is an example of why the Mrs. and I chose to live our retirement years at this latitude; an opportunity to enjoy the best of all 4 seasons from the comfort of our beloved home. Best to all. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted April 25, 2022 Share Posted April 25, 2022 6 hours ago, forkyfork said: remember when backdoor fronts meant 40s with fog 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted April 25, 2022 Share Posted April 25, 2022 Maybe two AN highs contained here. Norms are 66/67 for the rest of the month and 67-70 during the first 10 days of May. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted April 25, 2022 Share Posted April 25, 2022 the coldest winter I ever spent was in the Spring on south shore Long Island...the south shore of Staten Island isn't far behind... 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted April 25, 2022 Share Posted April 25, 2022 45 minutes ago, uncle W said: the coldest winter I ever spent was in the Spring on south shore Long Island...the south shore of Staten Island isn't far behind... I thought it was Candle Stick Park? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted April 25, 2022 Share Posted April 25, 2022 6 hours ago, uncle W said: the coldest winter I ever spent was in the Spring on south shore Long Island...the south shore of Staten Island isn't far behind... How tall would a wall have to be to block out that cold? I've always wondered what it would take to block out local seabreezes. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted April 25, 2022 Share Posted April 25, 2022 Morning thoughts… It will be partly to mostly cloudy. High temperatures will likely reach the lower and middle 60s in much of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 61° Newark: 61° Philadelphia: 66° A cooler pattern will develop at midweek. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 65.6°; 15-Year: 66.0° Newark: 30-Year: 66.4°; 15-Year: 66.9° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 68.4°; 15-Year: 68.8° 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted April 25, 2022 Share Posted April 25, 2022 The last 6 days of April are averaging 51degs.(44/58) or -6. Month to date is 52.8[+0.2]. April should end at 52.4[-1.3]. Reached 62 here yesterday at 6pm---early peak at 9am of 59. Today: 56-59, wind e., p. cloudy, 48 by tomorrow AM. Looks mostly dry for the next 10 days. 51*(61%RH) here at 7am. 56* at 9am. 60* at Noon. T spent the whole afternoon stuck at 57* after a quick noon drop off. 53* at 10pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 25, 2022 Author Share Posted April 25, 2022 Late April interior freeze this week as the cold that has been sitting over the Northern Tier shifts east. 2 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted April 25, 2022 Share Posted April 25, 2022 4 hours ago, bluewave said: Late April interior freeze this week as the cold that has been sitting over the Northern Tier shifts east. snow in the interior too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted April 25, 2022 Share Posted April 25, 2022 Today def feels more like an onshore flow type day. 55F and cloudy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted April 25, 2022 Share Posted April 25, 2022 20 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Today def feels more like an onshore flow type day. 55F and cloudy Yeah yesterday the temp fell to the mid 50s during the afternoon due to the east wind, but it felt so much better because it was sunny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STORMANLI Posted April 25, 2022 Share Posted April 25, 2022 On 4/11/2022 at 11:36 AM, gravitylover said: I never expect full leaf out here until the third week of April but, as usual, "green up" has started. The buds are filling out on almost everything and some things like berries and rhododendrons are bursting today. There's a very noticeable difference in the ground moisture as every plant around started sucking the ground dry last week to make it happen so even with the recent rain it's not as soggy as you'd expect. It's almost here, pretty much right on time. I recall April 3rd and 4th 1988 being 87°. Was on my first route and would have welcomed some shade, but trees were barely beginning to leaf-out so no such luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted April 25, 2022 Share Posted April 25, 2022 1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said: Today def feels more like an onshore flow type day. 55F and cloudy lucked out up here with sun most of the day with the cloud deck S and W of us-still cool thought about 60-61 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 25, 2022 Author Share Posted April 25, 2022 The latest EPS shifts the -AO block in late April to more of an omega block in early May. So a continuation of the generally cooler pattern. Could see above normal rainfall in early May with a strong Pacific Jet undercutting the block. Apr 25 to May 2 May 2 to May 9 3 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg g Posted April 25, 2022 Share Posted April 25, 2022 Played golf today.., little chilly but not too bad 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustinRP37 Posted April 25, 2022 Share Posted April 25, 2022 4 minutes ago, Greg g said: Played golf today.., little chilly but not too bad Of course! It is April 25th! It’s not too hot, not too cold. All you need is a light jacket! 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted April 26, 2022 Share Posted April 26, 2022 Tomorrow will be variably cloudy and mild. Some showers or perhaps a thundershower are possible. Afterward, the ongoing blocking will likely lead to a more sustained cool pattern that could last into the beginning of May. The coolest period will likely occur from the middle of next week through the middle of the first week of May. During the 1991-2020 period, the April 25-May 5 period saw temperatures average 1°-2° below normal when strong blocking coincided with Niña conditions. Afterward, approximately 50% of such cases went on to see a warmer to much warmer than normal second half of May. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.9°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.0°C for the week centered around April 20. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.98°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.92°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist into the start of June. The SOI was +18.17 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.773 today. On April 23 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 0.562 (RMM). The April 22-adjusted amplitude was 0.786 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 91% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal April (1991-2020 normal). April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 52.7° (1.0° below normal). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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