LoboLeader1 Posted April 21, 2022 Share Posted April 21, 2022 42 here currently. Reached 57 for a high yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 21, 2022 Author Share Posted April 21, 2022 It doesn’t look like Newark will get another chance to challenge the monthly high of 88°. This is a very rare event for Newark. It will only be the 5 spring since 1950 with both the March and April monthly maximum temperatures occurring before the 15th. Monthly maximum temperatures this time of year usually happen later in the month. Both highs were daily records. Only 5 years since 1950 with the Newark March and April high temperature before the 15th Newark 3-7-22…….76° 4-14-22…..88° 3-11-14…..67° 4-13-14…..83° 3-9-00……74° 4-8-00……78° 3-11-67……70° 4-2-67…….83° 3-10-55…..72° 4-11-55……84° Daily record highs 3/7 76 in 2022 75 in 1946 72 in 2009+ 4/14 88 in 2022 88 in 1941 86 in 1960 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted April 21, 2022 Share Posted April 21, 2022 Driving the parkway I’m shocked how barren it is at this point in April. At what point do the trees and flowers normally open up, and have things been delayed this year from the recurrent frosts? Not an area I’m much familiar with. Even last night my property skirted 32 degrees prior to sunup. None of my flowers have peaked out yet, trees still only basic small buds, and my cherry tree looks rather haggard and displeased. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted April 21, 2022 Share Posted April 21, 2022 Fwiw 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 21, 2022 Author Share Posted April 21, 2022 Cooler blocking pattern continuing into May on the EPS. Apr25- May 2 May 2-May 9 1 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyrangers1022 Posted April 21, 2022 Share Posted April 21, 2022 This pattern f*****g sucks 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheManWithNoFace Posted April 21, 2022 Share Posted April 21, 2022 @bluewave how do those anomalies compare to May 2020 when we had frosts into mid-May? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted April 21, 2022 Share Posted April 21, 2022 29 minutes ago, bluewave said: Cooler blocking pattern continuing into May on the EPS. Apr25- May 2 May 2-May 9 Yeah that trough over the Maritimes needs to be gone. Pronto. We’re likely below average until then. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted April 21, 2022 Share Posted April 21, 2022 Models showing more onshore influence this weekend. 80s getting replaced with 60s even into NJ. Not surprising, these backdoors generally overperform this time of year. We'll see if we can squeeze 70F tomorrow otherwise it might be a while before we see 70+ temps again. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted April 22, 2022 Share Posted April 22, 2022 Tomorrow will be unseasonably warm before somewhat cooler air returns for the start of the weekend. Sunday could see one more spike in the temperatures as the development of a new round of blocking leads to a more sustained cool pattern that could last into the beginning of May. During the 1991-2020 period, the April 25-May 5 period saw temperatures average 1°-2° below normal when strong blocking coincided with Niña conditions. Afterward, approximately 50% of such cases went on to see a warmer to much warmer than normal second half of May. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.9°C for the week centered around April 13. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.80°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.88°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist into the start of June. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly of -1.7°C is the lowest such figure on record for a week centered around April 13. The old record was -1.4°C, which was set in 1994. Since 1982, there were five prior cases where the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.5°C or colder. 40% of those cases saw La Niña conditions the following winter; 40% saw neutral-cool ENSO conditions that approached but did not reach La Niña status. 20% of those cases saw an El Niño develop during the following winter. More immediately, the magnitude of cool anomalies implies that the proverbial stage is set for an active to very active Atlantic hurricane season. The SOI was +25.81 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.495 today. On April 19 the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.370 (RMM). The April 18-adjusted amplitude was 1.307 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 75% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal April (1991-2020 normal). April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 53.0° (0.7° below normal). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted April 22, 2022 Share Posted April 22, 2022 How far off is the new .7 below normal from the previous period? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted April 22, 2022 Share Posted April 22, 2022 22 minutes ago, gravitylover said: How far off is the new .7 below normal from the previous period? It would be exactly normal for NYC for the previous period. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoboLeader1 Posted April 22, 2022 Share Posted April 22, 2022 43 currently as of 5:30AM. Reached 56 here yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted April 22, 2022 Share Posted April 22, 2022 Morning thoughts… It will be partly sunny, breezy, and warm. High temperatures will likely reach the middle and upper 60s in much of the region. A few locations could reach or exceed 70°. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 66° Newark: 67° Philadelphia: 70° Tomorrow will be somewhat cooler. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 64.5°; 15-Year: 64.9° Newark: 30-Year: 65.3°; 15-Year: 65.7° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 67.3°; 15-Year: 67.7° 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 22, 2022 Author Share Posted April 22, 2022 All this blocking over the last month has created a backloaded snowfall season in Vermont ski country. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted April 22, 2022 Share Posted April 22, 2022 The next 8 days are averaging 54degs. (47/61) or -3. Month to date is 52.0[Normal]. Should be 52.6[-0.8] by the 30th. Reached 53 here yesterday. Today: 65-68, wind w. to n., breezy at times, m. sunny, 47 by tomorrow AM. 53*(71%RH) here at 7am. 58* at 9am. 62* at Noon. 63* at 1pm. 67* at 3pm. 69* at 4pm{24%RH!}. Reached 71*{23%RH} at 5:30pm. 60* at 11pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted April 22, 2022 Share Posted April 22, 2022 23 hours ago, bluewave said: It doesn’t look like Newark will get another chance to challenge the monthly high of 88°. This is a very rare event for Newark. It will only be the 5 spring since 1950 with both the March and April monthly maximum temperatures occurring before the 15th. Monthly maximum temperatures this time of year usually happen later in the month. Both highs were daily records. Only 5 years since 1950 with the Newark March and April high temperature before the 15th Newark 3-7-22…….76° 4-14-22…..88° 3-11-14…..67° 4-13-14…..83° 3-9-00……74° 4-8-00……78° 3-11-67……70° 4-2-67…….83° 3-10-55…..72° 4-11-55……84° Daily record highs 3/7 76 in 2022 75 in 1946 72 in 2009+ 4/14 88 in 2022 88 in 1941 86 in 1960 wow really early in 2000, before the 10th in both months! It didn't even hit 80 prior to May? Must have been one of the latest first occurrences of that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted April 22, 2022 Share Posted April 22, 2022 14 hours ago, jm1220 said: Yeah that trough over the Maritimes needs to be gone. Pronto. We’re likely below average until then. I have to say I'm loving this weather, as long as there is lots of sun I dont care what the temperatures are. One other very positive thing, I dont know what that big storm did, but ever since then my allergies have completely vanished! As in completely gonzo! I haven't even thought about them in a week! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted April 22, 2022 Share Posted April 22, 2022 14 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: I have to say I'm loving this weather, as long as there is lots of sun I dont care what the temperatures are. One other very positive thing, I dont know what that big storm did, but ever since then my allergies have completely vanished! As in completely gonzo! I haven't even thought about them in a week! The storm probably washed away the pollen/allergens. Agree, hopefully that continues at least. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 22, 2022 Author Share Posted April 22, 2022 22 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: I have to say I'm loving this weather, as long as there is lots of sun I dont care what the temperatures are. One other very positive thing, I dont know what that big storm did, but ever since then my allergies have completely vanished! As in completely gonzo! I haven't even thought about them in a week! The warm spots may be able to sneak in a 70° today before we get backdoored for the weekend. KEWR GFS MOS GUIDANCE 4/22/2022 0600 UTC DT /APR 22 /APR 23 /APR 24 / HR 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 00 06 X/N 69 45 57 46 63 TMP 55 63 66 66 60 55 50 47 50 55 55 54 50 49 48 48 50 56 60 59 52 DPT 36 31 28 28 30 30 30 31 32 30 31 33 37 37 37 38 41 42 44 43 43 CLD FW SC CL FW FW FW CL FW BK BK OV OV OV OV OV OV BK BK BK BK BK WDR 28 31 31 31 32 33 36 01 01 15 19 22 18 20 22 20 07 10 14 14 12 WSP 10 14 16 16 12 07 04 03 05 03 05 07 05 03 03 01 03 04 07 07 05 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted April 22, 2022 Share Posted April 22, 2022 Next week looks awful. I truly hate spring up here. we need to be done with the 50s 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted April 22, 2022 Share Posted April 22, 2022 23 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said: Fwiw 20 days early? I don’t think so 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted April 22, 2022 Share Posted April 22, 2022 20 minutes ago, psv88 said: Next week looks awful. I truly hate spring up here. we need to be done with the 50s Looks good in NJ. 60s and dry almost every day. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted April 22, 2022 Share Posted April 22, 2022 11 minutes ago, qg_omega said: 20 days early? I don’t think so May be some color interpretation differences ... but I don't see many pixels on that chart at that far end of the spectrum. Looks rather mid way ... so 10 give or take? Otherwise, even so yeah .. .not sure how the source - from the USGS if that should matter to anyone - goes about tabulating the data or enough so that an algorithm would paint such a dense, noisy presentation - it's also now 5 days ago since that chart date, but that was as of April 17. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted April 22, 2022 Share Posted April 22, 2022 32 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Looks good in NJ. 60s and dry almost every day. Low 60s with wind. Need to get west and south for anything truly warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted April 22, 2022 Share Posted April 22, 2022 55 minutes ago, qg_omega said: 20 days early? I don’t think so It might be slightly behind but no way it's 3 weeks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted April 22, 2022 Share Posted April 22, 2022 47 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Looks good in NJ. 60s and dry almost every day. Yeah mostly nice weather with 60s here, but the cool shot mid-late next week does look pretty impressive. We could have a couple days (probably wed and thur) where high temps stay in the 50s, and some frost at night not too far northwest of our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted April 22, 2022 Share Posted April 22, 2022 40 minutes ago, psv88 said: Low 60s with wind. Need to get west and south for anything truly warm Hopefully by mid May we are out of this pattern. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eduardo Posted April 22, 2022 Share Posted April 22, 2022 1 hour ago, psv88 said: Next week looks awful. I truly hate spring up here. we need to be done with the 50s Yeah it's starting to get on my nerves a lil too, especially after that teaser of a nice day we had last Thursday. The higher spring sun makes some positive difference even on cooler days, but come on! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted April 22, 2022 Share Posted April 22, 2022 April sucks around here more times than not. Worst month of the year imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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