April 2022

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, RedSky said:

Snow mixed with graupel and a snowbow.

42F

I want to see a snowbow!

This is what it looked like at my house in the Poconos today.

 

[LibertyBell]

14 hours ago, jm1220 said:

12” reported near BGM. If this was a month earlier there would be widespread 2 feet in upstate NY. As is there will probably be a decent number of 15” reports near where that crazy deform band parked. This is another example of how coastal storms mature later now. Heavy amounts in NE PA near the Poconos and upstate NY but not back into Central PA. It dryslots there too soon in these storms and the deform band forms too late/east. There are likely 6” or so amounts in high elevations there. Also some bad luck with it falling during daylight. 

NE PA is the place to be, there are no coastal storms that hit Central PA.  I had 5 inches at my other house, but the sweet spot seems to be extreme Northern/NE PA where over 2 feet fell?  I think they got more than Binghamton there on the PA side of the border.

 

[LibertyBell]

12 hours ago, bluewave said:

Looks like the 5th latest freeze date following the 5th earliest 71° at the airport since 1940.

 

Frost/Freeze Summary for PHILADELPHIA INTL AP, PA
Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date.
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Last	Value	First	Value	Season Length
1966	05-11 (1966)	28	10-28 (1966)	32	169
1988	04-22 (1988)	32	10-13 (1988)	32	173
1956	04-21 (1956)	32	11-10 (1956)	30	202
1983	04-20 (1983)	32	10-30 (1983)	32	192
2022	04-18 (2022)	32	11-03 (1980)	31	199

 

First/Last Summary for PHILADELPHIA INTL AP, PA
Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date.
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	First	Value	Last	Value	Difference
1950	01-06 (1950)	71	11-09 (1950)	73	306
2007	01-06 (2007)	73	11-22 (2007)	71	319
2002	01-29 (2002)	72	11-10 (2002)	72	284
1949	02-15 (1949)	74	11-11 (1949)	74	268
1954	02-15 (1954)	72	10-27 (1954)	71	253
2018	02-20 (2018)	72	11-02 (2018)	72	254
2017	02-23 (2017)	73	11-03 (2017)	73	252
2022	02-23 (2022)	71	-	-	-

 

wth....Philly had a freeze on May 11th in 1966?  I dont think NYC has ever had a freeze that late.  How is Philly colder than NYC is?

 

[Rtd208]

Picked up 1.29" of rain for the day.

Storm total 1.91"

Current temp 42

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts…

It will be mostly sunny and somewhat milder today. High temperatures will likely reach the middle and upper 50s in much of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 56°

Newark: 58°

Philadelphia: 61°

The warming trend will continue tomorrow.

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 63.8°; 15-Year: 64.1°

Newark: 30-Year: 64.5°; 15-Year: 64.9°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 66.6°; 15-Year: 67.0°

[LoboLeader1]

43 here currently, bottomed out at 41 overnite.

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging 55degs.(48/61) or about -1.

Month to date is 52.1[+0.5].       Should be 53.0[Normal] by the 28th.

Reached 51 here yesterday.

Today: 56-60, wind w. and breezy early, m. sunny, 47 by tomorrow AM.

42*(60%RH) here at 7am.      45* at 9am.      50* at Noon.       57* at 3pm.      60* at 4pm.       62* at 5pm.     Reached 63* at 5:10pm.       54* at 6pm.      50* at 8pm.

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

11 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

NE PA is the place to be, there are no coastal storms that hit Central PA.  I had 5 inches at my other house, but the sweet spot seems to be extreme Northern/NE PA where over 2 feet fell?  I think they got more than Binghamton there on the PA side of the border.

 

My uncle had 10” in Susquehanna county about 30

miles south of Binghamton. He’s at 1900’ so definitely maximized snow fall. Where did you see those big numbers?

[Volcanic Winter]

I honestly don’t mind so much living at the coast of NJ as far as snow is concerned. I’m far enough inland to avoid extreme coastal mixing and rain, and I’m always potentially in the bullseye. We miss more types of storms than you guys up north and of course our average isn’t as high, but we’re always in the game for those big MECS+ we get every year to every few years. 
 

I’ve been in Rochester visiting family through their lake effect snow, I’ve been in upstate Ny in the winter, and I’ve lived much further north in NJ until relatively recently. I would always miss our coastal bombs (especially the sharp cutoff kind, we did phenomenally with the big one this winter), even if I’d very much appreciate the greater consistency of 4-8” snowfalls in the winter further north. 
 

Definitely plans to move out of state and much further north in the next 5-10 years, wife is onboard. For now, I’ll enjoy playing that coastal lottery because when it hits … .

[forkyfork]

13 hours ago, CIK62 said:

A BN MAY ON THE EURO...........

weatherbell maps are unreliable 

[bluewave]

5 hours ago, Volcanic Winter said:

I honestly don’t mind so much living at the coast of NJ as far as snow is concerned. I’m far enough inland to avoid extreme coastal mixing and rain, and I’m always potentially in the bullseye. We miss more types of storms than you guys up north and of course our average isn’t as high, but we’re always in the game for those big MECS+ we get every year to every few years. 
 

I’ve been in Rochester visiting family through their lake effect snow, I’ve been in upstate Ny in the winter, and I’ve lived much further north in NJ until relatively recently. I would always miss our coastal bombs (especially the sharp cutoff kind, we did phenomenally with the big one this winter), even if I’d very much appreciate the greater consistency of 4-8” snowfalls in the winter further north. 
 

Definitely plans to move out of state and much further north in the next 5-10 years, wife is onboard. For now, I’ll enjoy playing that coastal lottery because when it hits ….

Yeah, I will always take bigger snowstorms over more seasonal snowfall. ISP and ORH are the only major stations in the Northeast outside the heaviest snow belt zones with 5 snowstorms reaching 20” or more since 09-10. So the snowstorm quality on Long Island over this period can go up against any US station near sea level. But I understand that some people like more consistent snow cover  and heavier seasonal totals. 
 

20” snowstorms since 09-10

ISP…...5

ORH…5

BOS…4

SYR…4

NYC…3

BGM…3

PHL….3

BTV….3

BDL….2

EWR…2

ALB….2

BUF….2

 

[NepaJames8602]

13 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

NE PA is the place to be, there are no coastal storms that hit Central PA.  I had 5 inches at my other house, but the sweet spot seems to be extreme Northern/NE PA where over 2 feet fell?  I think they got more than Binghamton there on the PA side of the border.

 

Yes, Bradford and Susquehanna counties right along the northern tier of Pa, just south of Binghamton Ny, reported anywhere from 12 to 16” in the higher elevations. I just drove through the area this am, and there was still 6 to 8 inches on the ground roughly, that was since compacting and melting a bit. Your area in the Poconos faired a bit better, here in the northern Poconos in Wayne county, I only reported 3” just under 2,100’ feet. Warm sector turned me over to sleet and even plain rain a good portion of the night. Western Catskills at elevation got a nice hit as well. There is still folks without power in the southern tier and Central Ny.

[Brian5671]

48 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

weatherbell maps are unreliable 

JB makes them skew cold…lol 

[Volcanic Winter]

 

This was our overnight low on Monday, 12ish miles inland from the ocean Co coast. Took me by surprise. Cold, cold morning for April. Was quite a bit colder in actuality even than forecast. 

[dWave]

16 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

wth....Philly had a freeze on May 11th in 1966?  I dont think NYC has ever had a freeze that late.  How is Philly colder than NYC is?

 

Philly is still slightly milder than NYC on avg but NYC just has more of the moderating effect of the Atlantic Ocean.  Philly is over 50 miles from the coast. NYC has a pretty good growing season considering its latitude...UHI + coastal location.

The flip side is getting robbed of some early season warm spells occurring almost everywhere else.  We may not have May freezes but Philly can be sunny and 75 to 80 and we are cloudy and 55 for a week. 

[LoboLeader1]

56F here as of 4:30PM, milder temps on tap to close out the week.

[donsutherland1]

Tomorrow will be variably cloudy and mild. Friday will be unseasonably warm before somewhat cooler air returns for the start of the weekend.

The expected development of blocking will likely result in a return of cooler than normal conditions during the closing days of April into the beginning of May. During the 1991-2020 period, the April 25-May 5 period saw temperatures average 1°-2° below normal when strong blocking coincided with Niña conditions. Afterward, approximately 50% of such cases went on to see a warmer to much warmer than normal second half of May.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.9°C for the week centered around April 13. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.80°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.88°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist into the start of June.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly of -1.7°C is the lowest such figure on record for a week centered around April 13. The old record was -1.4°C, which was set in 1994. Since 1982, there were five prior cases where the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.5°C or colder. 40% of those cases saw La Niña conditions the following winter; 40% saw neutral-cool ENSO conditions that approached but did not reach La Niña status. 20% of those cases saw an El Niño develop during the following winter. More immediately, the magnitude of cool anomalies implies that the proverbial stage is set for an active to very active Atlantic hurricane season.

The SOI was +27.69 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.096 today.

On April 18 the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.316 (RMM). The April 17-adjusted amplitude was 1.192 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 70% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal April (1991-2020 normal). April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 53.2° (0.5° below normal).

 

[Tekken_Guy]

OK. 4/25. 4/28, 5/2, and 5/5 are my last days on campus (other than Finals). Can I get a 70 at least once?

[uncle W]

no snow on the ground in Dingmans Ferry or Milford PA got here yesterday at 3pm...had some graupel yesterday...

[CIK62]

In trying to place the BDCF the EURO is the coolest (but maybe not COOL).       For Sunday the GFS has an astounding 83!.

Look here however.................

[Tekken_Guy]

29 minutes ago, CIK62 said:

In trying to place the BDCF the EURO is the coolest (but maybe not COOL).       For Sunday the GFS has an astounding 83!.

Look here however.................

What's the status for Monday and Tuesday? I've seem some conflicting reports on whether or not it heats up.

[SnoSki14]

3 hours ago, CIK62 said:

In trying to place the BDCF the EURO is the coolest (but maybe not COOL).       For Sunday the GFS has an astounding 83!.

Look here however.................

Very sharp gradient Sunday. From 80s to 50s over a short distance

[LibertyBell]

12 hours ago, NepaJames8602 said:

Yes, Bradford and Susquehanna counties right along the northern tier of Pa, just south of Binghamton Ny, reported anywhere from 12 to 16” in the higher elevations. I just drove through the area this am, and there was still 6 to 8 inches on the ground roughly, that was since compacting and melting a bit. Your area in the Poconos faired a bit better, here in the northern Poconos in Wayne county, I only reported 3” just under 2,100’ feet. Warm sector turned me over to sleet and even plain rain a good portion of the night. Western Catskills at elevation got a nice hit as well. There is still folks without power in the southern tier and Central Ny.

That changeover to rain was quite unexpected....did the storm go further west than expected?

 

[LibertyBell]

5 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Tomorrow will be variably cloudy and mild. Friday will be unseasonably warm before somewhat cooler air returns for the start of the weekend.

The expected development of blocking will likely result in a return of cooler than normal conditions during the closing days of April into the beginning of May. During the 1991-2020 period, the April 25-May 5 period saw temperatures average 1°-2° below normal when strong blocking coincided with Niña conditions. Afterward, approximately 50% of such cases went on to see a warmer to much warmer than normal second half of May.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.9°C for the week centered around April 13. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.80°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.88°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist into the start of June.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly of -1.7°C is the lowest such figure on record for a week centered around April 13. The old record was -1.4°C, which was set in 1994. Since 1982, there were five prior cases where the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.5°C or colder. 40% of those cases saw La Niña conditions the following winter; 40% saw neutral-cool ENSO conditions that approached but did not reach La Niña status. 20% of those cases saw an El Niño develop during the following winter. More immediately, the magnitude of cool anomalies implies that the proverbial stage is set for an active to very active Atlantic hurricane season.

The SOI was +27.69 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.096 today.

On April 18 the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.316 (RMM). The April 17-adjusted amplitude was 1.192 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 70% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal April (1991-2020 normal). April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 53.2° (0.5° below normal).

 

any early thoughts on the summer, Don?  I'm thinking it will be very warm but not excessively hot, and of course lots of rain.

 

[LibertyBell]

13 hours ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, I will always take bigger snowstorms over more seasonal snowfall. ISP and ORH are the only major stations in the Northeast outside the heaviest snow belt zones with 5 snowstorms reaching 20” or more since 09-10. So the snowstorm quality on Long Island over this period can go up against any US station near sea level. But I understand that some people like more consistent snow cover  and heavier seasonal totals. 
 

20” snowstorms since 09-10

ISP…...5

ORH…5

BOS…4

SYR…4

NYC…3

BGM…3

PHL….3

BTV….3

BDL….2

EWR…2

ALB….2

BUF….2

 

It depends where on Long Island you're talking about, JFK has only had one since PD2 and that's Jan 2016, but that beat all the others of course, with over 30"+

 

[LibertyBell]

15 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

My uncle had 10” in Susquehanna county about 30

miles south of Binghamton. He’s at 1900’ so definitely maximized snow fall. Where did you see those big numbers?

weather channel map, I guess it was way off.  When I checked back I couldn't see anyone with more than 18"

at my house in the Poconos there was 5" or so

 

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts…

It will become partly to mostly cloudy. High temperatures will likely reach the upper 50s and lower 60s in much of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 59°

Newark: 62°

Philadelphia: 64°

Tomorrow will be an unseasonably warm day.

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 64.2°; 15-Year: 64.5°

Newark: 30-Year: 64.9°; 15-Year: 65.3°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 67.0°; 15-Year: 67.4°

[donsutherland1]

6 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

any early thoughts on the summer, Don?  I'm thinking it will be very warm but not excessively hot, and of course lots of rain.

 

Probably warmer than normal with high dew points based on the SSTAs as they currently stand. The position of the ridging based on the SSTA assumptions probably won’t allow for too many outbreaks of extreme heat. Above normal rainfall with some possible tropical moisture (based on an active hurricane season and position of the ridging) looks reasonable.

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging 56degs.(48/63) or -1.

Month to date is 52.1[+0.3].     Should be  53.2[-0.1] by the 29th.

Reached 63 here yesterday.

Today: 55-58, wind s. and breezy, variable clouds, 52 tomorrow AM.

Expect big (+ or -) T errors Sunday-Tuesday.     Wednesday should be BN.        EURO up 15 degrees and GFS down 6 for Sunday from yesterday's guesses.

A lot of BN T's incoming...........

48*(67%RH) here at 7am.       50* at 9am.       52* at 10am.      53* at Noon.       54* at 1:30pm.     51* at 3pm with a southerly wind in full control around here.    52* at 9pm.      54* at 11pm.

[ILoveWinter]

Radar looks pretty juicy in western NY/PA, does this have a chance of making it over here? Certainly not forecasted to but just checking.