RedSky Posted April 17, 2022 Share Posted April 17, 2022 37 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: wow, already? Cold advection related 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 17, 2022 Author Share Posted April 17, 2022 1 hour ago, LibertyBell said: I am...I just saw a forecast for 8-12 inches of snow in the Poconos?! Thats amazing! How does this storm compare to April 19-20, 1983? No one has been willing to post maps of that amazing storm lol. Our latest accumulating snowfall! This is a much warmer storm for the coast than that one since we will have a +AO spike tomorrow. So the storm is going hug the coast instead of taking a BM track. But the higher elevations will get a heavy wet snow. The late March strat warming really primed the atmosphere for blocking with the near record weak SPV. This phasing storm Monday night will really pump the -AO block. Probably the most -AO of the year near -2. I think the 88° high at Newark on the 14th will stand as the warmest of the month. The late month blocking will probably favor an active backdoor pattern. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted April 17, 2022 Share Posted April 17, 2022 5 hours ago, nycwinter said: i enjoyed wearing a coat this morning felt great!! Going to be a rough 8 months coming up for you until December then I guess 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted April 17, 2022 Share Posted April 17, 2022 1 hour ago, LibertyBell said: I am...I just saw a forecast for 8-12 inches of snow in the Poconos?! Thats amazing! How does this storm compare to April 19-20, 1983? No one has been willing to post maps of that amazing storm lol. Our latest accumulating snowfall! The 1983 storm brought accumulating wet snow to much of the area but changed to rain fairly quickly along the coast. Some Coastal areas received up to a couple of inches before turning to rain. Parts of NW NJ received up to 15 inches with this event. I have not seen any accumulation maps regarding this event. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted April 17, 2022 Share Posted April 17, 2022 Today featured brilliant sunshine but unseasonably cool readings. The colder than normal readings will likely persist through at least midweek. Before then, a storm could bring a windswept rain to the region tomorrow night into Tuesday. A general 0.50"-1.50" rainfall with some locally higher amounts appears likely. Snow is likely in the higher elevations and in the interior. The Poconos, Catskills, and Adirondacks could see at least an appreciable accumulation of snow. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.9°C for the week centered around April 6. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.73°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.92°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist into the start of May. The SOI was +18.75 today. During April 5-14, the SOI had a 10-day stretch during which the SOI was +20.00 or above. The last time a streak of 7 or more such days occurred in April was March 28-April 5, 2011 when the SOI reached at least +20.00 on 9 consecutive days. Then, there was a brief period of much warmer than normal temperatures following the end of that stretch and a longer period of much warmer than normal temperatures starting about 2 1/2 weeks later. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.782 today. On April 15 the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 1.014 (RMM). The April 14-adjusted amplitude was 0.828 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 57% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal April (1991-2020 normal). April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 54.0° (0.3° above normal). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted April 17, 2022 Share Posted April 17, 2022 3 hours ago, bluewave said: This is a much warmer storm for the coast than that one since we will have a +AO spike tomorrow. So the storm is going hug the coast instead of taking a BM track. But the higher elevations will get a heavy wet snow. The late March strat warming really primed the atmosphere for blocking with the near record weak SPV. This phasing storm Monday night will really pump the -AO block. Probably the most -AO of the year near -2. I think the 88° high at Newark on the 14th will stand as the warmest of the month. The late month blocking will probably favor an active backdoor pattern. Yep, whenever you see those troughs developing over the Maritimes this time of year you know what’s coming. Blocking at the worst possible time once again. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted April 18, 2022 Share Posted April 18, 2022 While on a hike today it started snowing. Harriman State Park. 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tekken_Guy Posted April 18, 2022 Share Posted April 18, 2022 Quote If it does not hit 70 degrees at KCDW even once on any of the next three Mondays or Thursdays, starting with 4/18 and ending on 5/5, I will not post here again until after Labor Day. If that 12z GFS is true then I'm in big danger of losing my bet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted April 18, 2022 Share Posted April 18, 2022 1 hour ago, Tekken_Guy said: If that 12z GFS is true then I'm in big danger of losing my bet. It's a very bad pattern. I think we'll hit 70 late this week, maybe even 75 or 78 but after next weekend, we're going to be below normal temps and near normal precip for a while IMO. I don't think Central Park is going to get to 80 this month. Though we should see much more warmth possibly heat starting around mid or late May. WX/PT 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tekken_Guy Posted April 18, 2022 Share Posted April 18, 2022 1 hour ago, Wxoutlooksblog said: It's a very bad pattern. I think we'll hit 70 late this week, maybe even 75 or 78 but after next weekend, we're going to be below normal temps and near normal precip for a while IMO. I don't think Central Park is going to get to 80 this month. Though we should see much more warmth possibly heat starting around mid or late May. WX/PT I anticipate we’ll fall short on Friday. I do think we have a shot for the beginning of next week, though. If we get it on the 25th I win my bet. The end of that week looks on the cool side, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted April 18, 2022 Share Posted April 18, 2022 9 hours ago, snowman19 said: Going to be a rough 8 months coming up for you until December then I guess Ah yes the traditionally coat-less months of October and November will be a nice hurrah. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted April 18, 2022 Share Posted April 18, 2022 Morning thoughts… Clouds will increase during the day and rain will likely arrive late in the day. Overnight into tomorrow morning, there will be a windswept heavy rain. Higher elevations and interior sections will likely see some snow. High temperatures will likely reach the lower and middle 50s in much of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 53° Newark: 54° Philadelphia: 54° The cool weather will continue through at least midweek. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 63.0°; 15-Year: 63.3° Newark: 30-Year: 63.8°; 15-Year: 64.1° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 65.8°; 15-Year: 66.3° At Bismarck, 2.5” of snow fell yesterday. That broke the daily record of 2.1” from 1959. It also increased the snowfall for this month to 21.9”, making 2022 the snowiest April on record. The old record of 21.8” was set in 2013. April records go back to 1875. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted April 18, 2022 Share Posted April 18, 2022 The next 8 days are averaging 52degs.(46/58) or about -4. Month to date 52.9[+1.7]. Should be 52.6[near Normal] by the 26th. Reached 52 here yesterday. Today: 48-50, wind e. to se and gusty later and tonight{35-40mph},increasing clouds, rain by 6pm{0.7"-1.4"} by tomorrow AM, 42. The worst of the gusts that I could find---off the NAM: 43*(47%RH) here at 7am.(42 at 6am). 47* at 9am. 51* at 10am. 52* at 10:30am. 51* at 11am. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 18, 2022 Author Share Posted April 18, 2022 Our big temperature swings pattern continues. Newark dropped 50° degrees since last Thursday. Upper 80s to upper 30s is one of the greatest 88 hour temperature drops in Newark during April. It would be a little higher if off hour highs and lows were included. https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=169&network=NJ_ASOS&zstation=EWR&hours=88&month=apr&dir=cool&_r=t&dpi=100&_fmt=png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gpsnavigator Posted April 18, 2022 Share Posted April 18, 2022 Cold morning in West Jersey, colder than forecast. Looks like some of the coldest in the region. I had a low of 25 (forecast was 31). I went ahead and put a few pansies in, since they are allegedly colder weather plants, so we'll see how they did. Right now they are looking pretty iffy. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoboLeader1 Posted April 18, 2022 Share Posted April 18, 2022 32 for an overnite low here, currently 39 and clear as of 8AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted April 18, 2022 Share Posted April 18, 2022 28 in Muttontown & 30 in Syosset this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted April 18, 2022 Share Posted April 18, 2022 Last freeze of the season most likely at 29F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted April 18, 2022 Share Posted April 18, 2022 30 degrees here earlier this morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 18, 2022 Author Share Posted April 18, 2022 12 hours ago, jm1220 said: Yep, whenever you see those troughs developing over the Maritimes this time of year you know what’s coming. Blocking at the worst possible time once again. April -AO blocking since 2004 has usually continued into May. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted April 18, 2022 Share Posted April 18, 2022 29 this morning 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STORMANLI Posted April 18, 2022 Share Posted April 18, 2022 Frosty 28° "Warmed" up to 41° @ 0755 and now already @ 48°. Not so sure with all the blocking that this is the last freeze, but hopefully. Nice to garden without row covers or cloches, but this seems to be our climate, so take any warm breaks we get. Colder times only make the warmth feel better. Maybe the inverse in winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted April 18, 2022 Share Posted April 18, 2022 14 minutes ago, STORMANLI said: Frosty 28° "Warmed" up to 41° @ 0755 and now already @ 48°. Not so sure with all the blocking that this is the last freeze, but hopefully. Nice to garden without row covers or cloches, but this seems to be our climate, so take any warm breaks we get. Colder times only make the warmth feel better. Maybe the inverse in winter. Good morning all. Ref: NOAA; sometime between 4 and 5:51 the CPK low was 39 degrees. Sunshine over the postage stamp right now. Below is a screen shot sample of the weather alert that is delivered by our local zip digital news called Patch. Stay safe and dry tonight. As always …. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted April 18, 2022 Share Posted April 18, 2022 I wish I was off this week. I would have went to Cooperstown to chase the snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted April 18, 2022 Share Posted April 18, 2022 In the Herndon-Reston area of northern Virginia, (NW of D.C.) currently light rain mixed with ice pellets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matt8204 Posted April 18, 2022 Share Posted April 18, 2022 2 hours ago, gpsnavigator said: Cold morning in West Jersey, colder than forecast. Looks like some of the coldest in the region. I had a low of 25 (forecast was 31). I went ahead and put a few pansies in, since they are allegedly colder weather plants, so we'll see how they did. Right now they are looking pretty iffy. Felt like a late fall/early winter morning. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted April 18, 2022 Share Posted April 18, 2022 Got down to 27 last night. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BucksCO_PA Posted April 18, 2022 Share Posted April 18, 2022 PHL recorded a low of 32 degrees this morning, that ties 1983 for the 2nd coldest temp on the date & the coldest since 1875. This also represents the latest freeze at Philadelphia since 1988. Over the past 30 yrs. the average date of the last freeze at PHL is 3/31. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted April 18, 2022 Share Posted April 18, 2022 2 hours ago, lee59 said: In the Herndon-Reston area of northern Virginia, (NW of D.C.) currently light rain mixed with ice pellets. It is presently snowing hard along I81 in south central PA well to the SW of Harrisburg. I am seeing visibility’s as low as 1/4 mile with accumulations on grassy surfaces near the Maryland border. Elevations there run about 500-700’. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 18, 2022 Author Share Posted April 18, 2022 You know it must be the spring when these -AO forecasts correct stronger over time. New run Old run 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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