April 2022

[bluewave]

Out of season is the new in season.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2021/11/14/tornadoes-connecticut-longisland-november/

 

Public Information Statement
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
341 PM EDT Fri Apr 1 2022

...Preliminary Survey Results for Tornado Near Hilltown Township 
and Bedminster Township in Bucks County Pennsylvania...

The National Weather Service office in Mount Holly NJ is
finishing a storm survey for the area near Hilltown Township and 
Bedminster Township in Bucks County Pennsylvania. The survey is in
relation to the severe thunderstorms that moved through the area 
on March 31 2022.

A tornado was determined to have occurred Thursday evening in the
area near the Souderton Road and Dublin Pike intersection near the
line between Hilltown and Bedminster Townships. The tornado was 
determined to be an EF1 with estimated maximum wind speed of 100 
mph. A final assessment including path length and other results of
the survey is expected to be completed and transmitted via a 
Public Information Statement by early this evening.

The storm survey information will also be available on our
website at http://www.weather.gov/phi

[gravitylover]

The radar presentation is pretty cool today. Popcorn convective stuff with embedded blobs of wet, white and frozen from VA to WI to northern New England. Yay spring 

[Brian5671]

13 minutes ago, gravitylover said:

The radar presentation is pretty cool today. Popcorn convective stuff with embedded blobs of wet, white and frozen from VA to WI to northern New England. Yay spring 

classic destructive sunshine-anytime the sun was out here a couple hrs later we had a shower

[LoboLeader1]

48 here under cloudy sky. Temp reached 54 earlier today.

[gravitylover]

53 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

classic destructive sunshine-anytime the sun was out here a couple hrs later we had a shower

What impressed me most is it's not a local or even regional thing, it was the whole quarter of the country for a while 

[nycwinter]

another  chilly night when you can go out early tomorrow morning and wear a winter coat hat and gloves on..

[bluewave]

7 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

We’ve already seen some early hints of drought-heat feedback in the Southwest. More heat—possibly record-challenging heat—could develop there next week.

Yeah, it was the driest JFM on record for several locations in the West. 
 

 

 

[donsutherland1]

It will be partly sunny and cooler tomorrow. Sunday will be mostly cloudy with showers and periods of rain. It will be somewhat cooler than normal.

Nevertheless, it is possible that New York City's Central Park has seen its last freeze of the season. Overall, April could wind up near to somewhat warmer normal overall in the northern Mid-Atlantic region.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.9°C for the week centered around March 23. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.92°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.88°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist into at least mid-April.

The SOI was +17.09 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.325 today.

On March 30 the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 0.650 (RMM). The March 29-adjusted amplitude was 0.665 (RMM).

 

[jm1220]

5 hours ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, it was the driest JFM on record for several locations in the West. 
 

 

 

Not to drag it too off topic but the good news somewhat is that the Colorado River source region in CO did well precip-wise which will head downstream towards AZ. Long term though the West is in a world of hurt without major changes. This perma-Nina needs to end. CA did very well in December but it wasn't enough to really dent the drought since it dried right back up in Jan.

[IrishRob17]

8 hours ago, jm1220 said:

Not to drag it too off topic but the good news somewhat is that the Colorado River source region in CO did well precip-wise which will head downstream towards AZ. Long term though the West is in a world of hurt without major changes. This perma-Nina needs to end. CA did very well in December but it wasn't enough to really dent the drought since it dried right back up in Jan.

I would’ve guessed by that precipitation map that the areas that did well are further east of the Colorado River basin region. 

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging  49degs.(43/55) or about Normal.

Reached 61 here yesterday at midnight, 57 in the PM.

Today: 52-55, wind nw. and calming down, few clouds, 45 by tomorrow AM.

Big T pop for awhile around the 12th-15th?    Rossby WT says Southeast Ridge acts up then-but is held at bay till first week of May.

39*(49%RH) here at 7am.         43* at Noon.        51* at 3pm.      57* at 5pm.       Reached 58* at 5:15pm.        45* at 9pm.

[bluewave]

We could pick up over 2.00” of rain with multiple events by the 10th.
 

 

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts…

It will become partly sunny and somewhat cooler than normal. High temperatures will likely reach the lower and middle 50s in much of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 54°

Newark: 55°

Philadelphia: 55°

Showers and periods of rain are likely tomorrow.

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 56.2°; 15-Year: 57.1°

Newark: 30-Year: 57.0°; 15-Year: 57.7°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 59.2°; 15-Year: 59.9°

[gravitylover]

2 hours ago, IrishRob17 said:

I would’ve guessed by that precipitation map that the areas that did well are further east of the Colorado region. 

Yup. Other than just a bit of additional spillover right along the spine of the divide almost all of the big snows are east of the western river basins and will give no benefit at all.

[LoboLeader1]

36 here for over night low. Currently 39 under a clear sky.

[psv88]

This weather is terrible. I miss Florida 

[winterwx21]

14 minutes ago, psv88 said:

This weather is terrible. I miss Florida 

Definitely annoying that a cool pattern settled in for late March and early April, after how warm it was in early to mid March. But the long range is showing a nice warm pattern starting around April 12th, so we can look forward to that.

[Stormlover74]

39 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

Definitely annoying that a cool pattern settled in for late March and early April, after how warm it was in early to mid March. But the long range is showing a nice warm pattern starting around April 12th, so we can look forward to that.

Yeah we'll likely go from the 50s straight to the 80s and back

[SnoSki14]

1 hour ago, psv88 said:

This weather is terrible. I miss Florida 

It's been well AN regardless. March was at least 2.5F degrees above the newer averages despite the late month cool down. 

I think April goes that way too. Looks like a big ridge after the 10th probably gives us our first 80s. 

[nycwinter]

beautiful  this morning took a nice walk with my coat gloves and ski cap on felt great!!

[bluewave]

23 hours ago, uncle W said:

we need an el nino...a strong one...

Kind of mixed signals coming from the Tropical Pacific. While the La Niña was strengthening back in March, it has begun to weaken again. The past analogs are all over the place for next winter. 

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/march-2022-la-niña-update-three-bean-salad

Also, La Niña three-peats (triple dips?) are very rare—only two exist in our more reliable historical record going back to 1950 and both occurred after major El Niño events, which our current event did not. The time evolution of the Niño-3.4 index for the two La Niña three-peats is featured in the darker blue lines in the image below. It is also interesting that out of the eight double-dip La Niñas in our historical record, three ended up evolving into an El Niño for the third winter (red lines) and the remaining three ended up on the cooler side, close to La Niña thresholds, but were ultimately classified as ENSO-neutral winters.

 

[uncle W]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Kind of mixed signals coming from the Tropical Pacific. While the La Niña was strengthening back in March, it has begun to weaken again. The past analogs are all over the place for next winter. 

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/march-2022-la-niña-update-three-bean-salad

Also, La Niña three-peats (triple dips?) are very rare—only two exist in our more reliable historical record going back to 1950 and both occurred after major El Niño events, which our current event did not. The time evolution of the Niño-3.4 index for the two La Niña three-peats is featured in the darker blue lines in the image below. It is also interesting that out of the eight double-dip La Niñas in our historical record, three ended up evolving into an El Niño for the third winter (red lines) and the remaining three ended up on the cooler side, close to La Niña thresholds, but were ultimately classified as ENSO-neutral winters.

 

old mei data had 1908-09 to 1910-11 as la nina years...you have to go back to the 1870's for four straight la nina years...JMA has it too

MEI.ext timeseries from Dec/Jan 1871 through Nov/Dec 2005 (noaa.gov)

https://data.coaps.fsu.edu/pub/JMA_SST_Index/jmasst1868-today.filter-5

 

[bluewave]

15 minutes ago, uncle W said:

old mei data had 1908-09 to 1910-11 as la nina years...you have to go back to the 1870's for four straight la nina years...JMA has it too

MEI.ext timeseries from Dec/Jan 1871 through Nov/Dec 2005 (noaa.gov)

https://data.coaps.fsu.edu/pub/JMA_SST_Index/jmasst1868-today.filter-5

 

The last El Niño couldn’t couple in 18-19 due to how warm the WPAC was. The most recent  3 year La Niña was 98-99, 99-00, and 00-01. But that followed immediately after the super El Niño in 97-98. Weather twitter seems very unsure on what happens with the ENSO going into next winter. 

[donsutherland1]

Temperatures rose into the 50s at the New York Botanical Garden where daffodils are blooming in increasing numbers.

[donsutherland1]

Tomorrow will be mostly cloudy with showers and periods of rain. It will be somewhat cooler than normal. Dry conditions with near normal temperatures will return on Monday.

Nevertheless, it is possible that New York City's Central Park has seen its last freeze of the season. Overall, April could wind up near to somewhat warmer normal overall in the northern Mid-Atlantic region.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.9°C for the week centered around March 23. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.92°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.88°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist into at least mid-April.

The SOI was -3.39 today. The SOI fell 20.48 points over the past day. The last time that happened was October 22-23, 2021 when the SOI fell 28.43 points. The last time the SOI fell by 20 or more points in a 24-hour span in April was April 13-14, 2018. El Niño conditions developed the following winter. It's premature to make any ENSO forecasts for next winter given that we're in spring and such forecasts from this far out lack skill.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.928 today.

On March 31 the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 0.779 (RMM). The March 30-adjusted amplitude was 0.647 (RMM).

 

[LibertyBell]

12 hours ago, bluewave said:

The last El Niño couldn’t couple in 18-19 due to how warm the WPAC was. The most recent  3 year La Niña was 98-99, 99-00, and 00-01. But that followed immediately after the super El Niño in 97-98. Weather twitter seems very unsure on what happens with the ENSO going into next winter. 

why are la ninas more common than el nino?

 

[LibertyBell]

16 hours ago, psv88 said:

This weather is terrible. I miss Florida 

too humid, Arizona is better

 

[LibertyBell]

On 4/2/2022 at 12:38 AM, jm1220 said:

Not to drag it too off topic but the good news somewhat is that the Colorado River source region in CO did well precip-wise which will head downstream towards AZ. Long term though the West is in a world of hurt without major changes. This perma-Nina needs to end. CA did very well in December but it wasn't enough to really dent the drought since it dried right back up in Jan.

we need to look at it more as a rapid warming of the west pac not a la nina

[bluewave]

The higher elevations are the place to be if you like snow in April.

 

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albany NY
454 AM EDT Sun Apr 3 2022

NYZ047-051-058-063-031800-
Schoharie-Western Albany-Western Greene-Western Ulster-
454 AM EDT Sun Apr 3 2022

...Wet Snow for Higher Terrain Areas Today...

A period of wet snow, potentially becoming moderate to heavy at
times, is expected today in the higher terrain areas of the
eastern Catskills, Helderbergs and Schoharie County from
approximately 8am to 2pm. While areas as low as 1000 feet in
elevation could see coatings of snow, elevations mainly 1500ft and
higher may see snow accumulations ranging 1 to 3 inches with
locally higher amounts near 4 inches in the highest peaks. This
may result in slippery travel conditions and motorists are
encouraged to use caution if traveling.

[nyrangers1022]

11 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The higher elevations are the place to be if you like snow in April.

 

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albany NY
454 AM EDT Sun Apr 3 2022

NYZ047-051-058-063-031800-
Schoharie-Western Albany-Western Greene-Western Ulster-
454 AM EDT Sun Apr 3 2022

...Wet Snow for Higher Terrain Areas Today...

A period of wet snow, potentially becoming moderate to heavy at
times, is expected today in the higher terrain areas of the
eastern Catskills, Helderbergs and Schoharie County from
approximately 8am to 2pm. While areas as low as 1000 feet in
elevation could see coatings of snow, elevations mainly 1500ft and
higher may see snow accumulations ranging 1 to 3 inches with
locally higher amounts near 4 inches in the highest peaks. This
may result in slippery travel conditions and motorists are
encouraged to use caution if traveling.