April 2022

[nycwinter]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

This continuing La Niña background state is on steroids. So it favors another very active hurricane season. Then maybe a rare 3rd year La Niña for next winter. 

 

Enough preamble—what’s the Walker circulation doing right now? I thought you’d never ask. It’s really feeling its oats these days, as several different atmospheric measurements tell us.

First, let’s talk Equatorial Southern Oscillation, an index that measures the relative sea level pressure in the far western Pacific vs. that in the eastern Pacific. When the EQSOI is positive, it indicates lower-than-average pressure over the west (more rain and clouds) and higher-than-average pressure over the east (less rain and clouds), i.e., evidence of a stronger Walker circulation. In March, the EQSOI measured 1.4, the 6^th strongest since 1950.

As I mentioned above, stronger trade winds are key to the La Niña feedback between the ocean and atmosphere. The trade winds were enhanced through March, and remain stronger than average into mid-April. You want a number, you say? Okay! There’s an index that measures the near-surface winds in the central Pacific region of 5°N–5°S, 175°W–140°W; it was 4.3 meters per second (9.6 miles per hour) faster than average in March. This is the strongest March value on record, but there’s a catch—this record only goes back to 1979.

One more index! The central Pacific was much less cloudy and rainy than average in March. We monitor cloudiness via satellite, by looking at how much radiation is leaving the Earth’s surface and reaching the satellites. Less radiation making it to the satellite means more clouds are blocking the path.

The index that measures outgoing radiation (and therefore cloudiness), the CPOLR, tells us that this March featured the least amount of clouds for any March on record over the central Pacific. We’re number 1! Again, though, like the winds, this record only goes back to 1979, when the satellite measurement era began. So, a grain of salt with your records.

One last measurement today—let’s look under the surface of the tropical Pacific Ocean. The amount of cooler-than-average water under the surface increased in March. This cooler subsurface water provides a supply of cooler water to the surface, contributing to ENSO forecasters’ prediction that La Niña will remain into the summer. Index-wise, last month the water under the surface was the 9^th coolest March since 1979.

 

 

another active tropical atlantic gulf of mexico season coming up!!

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, forkyfork said:

i miss yesterday

wasn't Yesterday a Beatles song?

what is it with this wind-- it kicked up my allergies again

[rclab]

2 hours ago, forkyfork said:

i miss yesterday

 

32 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

wasn't Yesterday a Beatles song?

what is it with this wind-- it kicked up my allergies again

“Now I need a place to hide away. Oh, I believe in yesterday.” As always ….

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging 53degs.(46/61) or about -3.

Reached 64 here yesterday.

Today: 63-67, wind w. and breezy, m. cloudy, rain/TS? by 8pm-midnight, 44 by tomorrow AM.

Next T outburst still near 4/24-26.

55*(42%RH) here at 7am.       60* at 10:30am.      64* at Noon.      61* at 1pm.     57* at 1:30pm.      57*-60* during PM.        After some rain   49* at 10:30pm.     47* at 11pm.

[bluewave]

This may be among the most variable spring temperature patterns that we have seen since March 1st. The SE Ridge has been dueling with the -AO block. So our next cool down is on track for Monday morning with a late season freeze for the usually colder spots. Then we warm up again back to the 70s by later next week. This is followed by another backdoor cool down. Then we may get another chance for 80s around day 8-10 as the SE Ridge flexes. Then more blocking near the end of April with another step down in temperatures.

Big temperature swings for the rest of the month 

 

 

 

[LoboLeader1]

Currently 53 here under cloudy sky, after an overnite low of 51. High yesterday was 67.

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts…

Clouds will increase this afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms are likely late this afternoon or this evening. High temperatures will likely reach the upper 60s and lower 70s in much of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 68°

Newark: 71°

Philadelphia: 73°

It will be noticeably cooler tomorrow despite ample sunshine.

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 62.2°; 15-Year: 62.5°

Newark: 30-Year: 62.9°; 15-Year: 63.3°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 65.1°; 15-Year: 65.5°

Through 6 am CDT, the low temperature at Bismarck is 1°. That smashes the daily record low of 10°, which was set in 1953. It is also the coldest temperature so late in the season. The previous latest such temperature occurred on April 9, 1997 when the temperature also fell to 1°.

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

This may be among the most variable spring temperature patterns that we have seen since March 1st. The SE Ridge has been dueling with the -AO block. So our next cool down is on track for Monday morning with a late season freeze for the usually colder spots. Then we warm up again back to the 70s by later next week. This is followed by another backdoor cool down. Then we may get another chance for 80s around day 8-10 as the SE Ridge flexes. Then more blocking near the end of April with another step down in temperatures.

Big temperature swings for the rest of the month 

 

 

 

we'll be in the mid 30s even here in SW Nassau so close to freezing !

 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

Morning thoughts…

Clouds will increase this afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms are likely late this afternoon or this evening. High temperatures will likely reach the upper 60s and lower 70s in much of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 68°

Newark: 71°

Philadelphia: 73°

It will be noticeably cooler tomorrow despite ample sunshine.

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 62.2°; 15-Year: 62.5°

Newark: 30-Year: 62.9°; 15-Year: 63.3°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 65.1°; 15-Year: 65.5°

Through 6 am CDT, the low temperature at Bismarck is 1°. That smashes the daily record low of 10°, which was set in 1953. It is also the coldest temperature so late in the season. The previous latest such temperature occurred on April 9, 1997 when the temperature also fell to 1°.

Wow, maybe Bismarck can get to 0 or lower....that would be the latest that's ever happened!

 

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

we'll be in the mid 30s even here in SW Nassau so close to freezing !

 

Strongest -AO drop of the year so far coming up. The whole area would have had above normal snowfall if this block occurred from February into March. 
 

 

 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Strongest -AO drop of the year so far coming up. The whole area would have had above normal snowfall if this block occurred from February into March. 
 

 

 

I've been planning out my eclipse chase for Monday April 8th 2024 and the best place to go for me is going to be either Syracuse or Watertown.  I'm going to start out at Wilkes Barre, PA after driving there from my PA house and getting on I-81.  Syracuse only has 1 min of 29 min totality but is about an hour closer from PA than Watertown is, but for that extra travel time I get 3 min and 39 sec of totality!  I wonder if eclipse totality looks any different from the edge of the totality zone to being right in the middle of it?  Either way if I'm going to drive 2hours 19min, I might as well drive 3hours 22min.   The eclipse starts at 3:22 pm at both places.  I was surprised to see the average high temp on that date for Syracuse is 54!  That's pretty nice, I wonder what the average high temp for that day is in Watertown?  Obviously cloud cover matters the most, and Syracuse might have a higher chance of clear skies than Watertown, which is right by Lake Ontario?

I figured I should leave my house around 10 AM, 1 hour to get to I-81 in Wilkes Barre, and then 4 more hours to get to whichever of those places, get there by 3 PM at the latest.

[donsutherland1]

5 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Wow, maybe Bismarck can get to 0 or lower....that would be the latest that's ever happened!

 

The final low temperature at Bismarck was 0F (-17.8C). That was the coldest temperature so late in the season. The previous latest such temperature occurred on April 5, 1996 with a low temperature -1F (-18.3C).

[SnoSki14]

4 hours ago, bluewave said:

Strongest -AO drop of the year so far coming up. The whole area would have had above normal snowfall if this block occurred from February into March. 
 

 

 

Yes but there's a reason why we're getting the spring blocking during spring and most of it stems of AGW impacts

[Eduardo]

4 hours ago, bluewave said:

Strongest -AO drop of the year so far coming up. The whole area would have had above normal snowfall if this block occurred from February into March. 
 

 

 

Am I wrong in feeling like this is becoming a persistent theme since 2016 (tepid winter blocking, followed by robust spring blocking)?  I realize that we’ve had some blocky periods during some recent winters but, by and large, it feels like we’ve gotten more frequent blocky periods in the spring.

[Stormlover74]

Made it to 73 today

[qg_omega]

8 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Morning thoughts…

Clouds will increase this afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms are likely late this afternoon or this evening. High temperatures will likely reach the upper 60s and lower 70s in much of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 68°

Newark: 71°

Philadelphia: 73°

It will be noticeably cooler tomorrow despite ample sunshine.

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 62.2°; 15-Year: 62.5°

Newark: 30-Year: 62.9°; 15-Year: 63.3°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 65.1°; 15-Year: 65.5°

Through 6 am CDT, the low temperature at Bismarck is 1°. That smashes the daily record low of 10°, which was set in 1953. It is also the coldest temperature so late in the season. The previous latest such temperature occurred on April 9, 1997 when the temperature also fell to 1°.

Beautiful day today

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, Eduardo said:

Am I wrong in feeling like this is becoming a persistent theme since 2016 (tepid winter blocking, followed by robust spring blocking)?  I realize that we’ve had some blocky periods during some recent winters but, by and large, it feels like we’ve gotten more frequent blocky periods in the spring.

The blocking has been more impressive during the spring than the winter since the super El Niño.

 

[donsutherland1]

The temperature again rose into the upper 60s and lower 70s in much of the region courtesy of bright sunshine. But the spring party is coming to an end as a cold front moves eastward across central Pennsylvania and central New York State.

Following the frontal passage, which will be marked by some showers or even thundershowers, noticeably cooler air will pour into the region tonight and persist through at least the middle of next week. A storm could bring a cold rain to the region early next week with some snow possible in the higher elevations and in the interior.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.9°C for the week centered around April 6. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.73°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.92°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist into the start of May.

The SOI was +16.44 today. During April 5-14, the SOI had a 10-day stretch during which the SOI was +20.00 or above. The last time a streak of 7 or more such days occurred in April was March 28-April 5, 2011 when the SOI reached at least +20.00 on 9 consecutive days. Then, there was a brief period of much warmer than normal temperatures following the end of that stretch and a longer period of much warmer than normal temperatures starting about 2 1/2 weeks later.  

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.260 today.

On April 14 the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 0.827 (RMM). The April 13-adjusted amplitude was 0.627 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 55% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal April (1991-2020 normal). April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 54.0° (0.3° above normal).

 

[nycwinter]

i am looking forward tomorrow morning when i can wear my winter coat ski hat and gloves !!

[donsutherland1]

With the thermometer topping 70 degrees under bright sunshine, the spring celebration of color was well underway at the New York Botanical Garden.

[LoboLeader1]

High of 68 here today, currently 53 under partly cloudy sky. Freeze watch posted for tomorrow nite into Monday AM. 

 

[Stormlover74]

Temp dropped 12 degrees already

[thunderbolt]

10 hours ago, bluewave said:

Strongest -AO drop of the year so far coming up. The whole area would have had above normal snowfall if this block occurred from February into March. 
 

 

 

And really you could possibly add January to that list 

[Stormlover74]

Raining and 49 

[rclab]

Good evening all. Ref: NOAA at 21:52 the CPK temperature was 47 with light rain. The 13:51 temperature was 71. A drop of 24 degrees in 8 hours. As always …..

[CIK62]

GFS sticking with a least one 80-Degree Day before month ends.

[LibertyBell]

8 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

The final low temperature at Bismarck was 0F (-17.8C). That was the coldest temperature so late in the season. The previous latest such temperature occurred on April 5, 1996 with a low temperature -1F (-18.3C).

1996 had a much colder winter everywhere

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, Stormlover74 said:

Raining and 49 

and damn allergies are back because of the wind

 

[LibertyBell]

6 hours ago, nycwinter said:

i am looking forward tomorrow morning when i can wear my winter coat ski hat and gloves !!

it isn't going to be that cold lol

a mask might be needed for the allergies though, I hate winds

 

[nycwinter]

29 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

it isn't going to be that cold lol

a mask might be needed for the allergies though, I hate winds

 

low 40's with a gusty wind tomorrow morning real feels in the 30's is plenty cold enough..