April 2022

[snowman19]

3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The general rule is we get more active Atlantic hurricane seasons with a La Niña and warm Atlantic SSTs. A -IOD serves to enhance the La Niña background state with stronger trade winds. The last strong summer -IOD was in 2016 and helped to shift the super El Niño to a 2 year La Niña.
 

Causes and Predictability of the Negative Indian Ocean Dipole and Its Impact on La Niña During 2016

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-017-12674-z

 

Extremely doubtful that there ever would have been a Niña in 2016 had it not been for that very strong -IOD event

[bluewave]

17 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Extremely doubtful that there ever would have been a Niña in 2016 had it not been for that very strong -IOD event

Yeah, the record warm pool north of Australia continues to be a big story.

 

 

 

[nyrangers1022]

Cool.and blustery out.  Terrible

[uncle W]

7 hours ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, the record warm pool north of Australia continues to be a big story.

 

 

 

1956 was a third year la nina also but it faded in early January 1957...

[donsutherland1]

Today was partly sunny but unseasonably cool. A cold night lies ahead. New York City will likely see the mercury fall toward or even into the upper 30s. Outside Philadelphia, Newark, and New York City, widespread readings in the lower and middle 30s are likely.

The cooler than normal weather will likely persist through the middle of the first week of May on account of the ongoing blocking.

During the 1991-2020 period, the April 25-May 5 period saw temperatures average 1°-2° below normal when strong blocking coincided with Niña conditions. Afterward, approximately 50% of such cases went on to see a warmer to much warmer than normal second half of May.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.9°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.0°C for the week centered around April 20. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.98°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.92°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist into the start of June.

The SOI was +31.44 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.909 today.

On April 25 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 0.423 (RMM). The April 24-adjusted amplitude was 0.373 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 99% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal April (1991-2020 normal). April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 52.6° (1.1° below normal).

 

[CIK62]

CFSv2 is still Gung Ho on a BN  May...................

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts…

It will be partly sunny to mostly sunny and cool. High temperatures will likely reach the middle and upper 50s in much of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 58°

Newark: 59°

Philadelphia: 59°

Below normal temperatures will persist through the middle of the first week of May.

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 66.6°; 15-Year: 67.1°

Newark: 30-Year: 67.5°; 15-Year: 68.0°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 69.4°; 15-Year: 69.8°

[MJO812]

40 here in Brooklyn 

[MJO812]

9 hours ago, CIK62 said:

CFSv2 is still Gung Ho on a BN  May...................

Good

[CIK62]

The last 3 days of April are averaging 50degs.(40/60) or -7.

Month to date is  52.8[-0.3].      April should end at  52.5[-1.2].

Reached 58 here yesterday (at midnight)-was 50 by 6pm.

Today: 57-60, wind nw and breezy, m. clear, 41 by tomorrow AM.

40*(51%RH) here at 7am.      42* at 9am.       48* at Noon.      53* at 2pm.      56* at 4pm.

[Rjay]

9 hours ago, CIK62 said:

CFSv2 is still Gung Ho on a BN  May...................

 

[bluewave]

The low temperatures this morning came in warmer than models forecast. So the cooler high temperatures  this month have kept the departures down. Several of our stations will finish near the top for warmest April lowest temperatures. One of the few times that cool spots like HPN didn’t drop below freezing in April. 
 

 

Time Series Summary for WESTCHESTER CO AP, NY - Month of Apr
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Lowest Min Temperature	Missing Count
1	2010	36	0
2	2017	33	0
-	1983	33	1
-	1953	33	0
3	2022	32	5
-	2006	32	0
-	2005	32	0
-	1999	32	6
-	1998	32	5
-	1988	32	1
-	1986	32	0
-	1960	32	1

 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of Apr
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Lowest Min Temperature	Missing Count
1	1878	42	0
2	2010	40	0
3	2022	38	3
-	2012	38	0

 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Apr
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Lowest Min Temperature	Missing Count
1	2012	38	0
-	2010	38	0
2	2011	37	0
-	1998	37	0
3	2022	36	3
-	2017	36	0
-	1994	36	0

 

Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY - Month of Apr
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Lowest Min Temperature	Missing Count
1	2017	34	0
-	2010	34	0
-	1988	34	0
2	2022	33	3
-	1999	33	0
-	1983	33	0
3	2012	32	0
-	2011	32	0
-	1993	32	0
-	1991	32	0

[LoboLeader1]

Currently 40 here as of 8AM. High of 54 yesterday, overnight low was 37. 

[forkyfork]

2 hours ago, Rjay said:

 

lol what are they doing at weatherbell

[tek1972]

FML

Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk

[gravitylover]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

The low temperatures this morning came in warmer than models forecast. So the cooler high temperatures  this month have kept the departures down. Several of our stations will finish near the top for warmest April lowest temperatures. One of the few times that cool spots like HPN didn’t drop below freezing in April. 

So again, it's the high lows that make us warmer. At least this time the highs were low enough to temper it and give us an overall lower average temp.

[bluewave]

2 hours ago, gravitylover said:

So again, it's the high lows that make us warmer. At least this time the highs were low enough to temper it and give us an overall lower average temp.

Yeah, this month we had slightly cooler than average highs and warmer lows. 
 

 

[Stormlover74]

April will end having had just 1 significantly above normal day. When ewr hit 88 back on the 14th and nyc made it to 79. No other days above 75

[bluewave]

Yeah, the real warmth on that day was mostly limited to west of the Hudson due to the strong onshore flow influence. 
 

Monthly Data for April 2022 for Upton NY NWS CWA
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

State	Name	Station Type	Highest Max Temperature
NJ	NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP	WBAN	88
NJ	TETERBORO AIRPORT	WBAN	88
NJ	CALDWELL ESSEX COUNTY AP	WBAN	88
NJ	HARRISON	COOP	87
NY	SHRUB OAK	COOP	85
NY	PORT JERVIS	COOP	84
NJ	CHARLOTTEBURG RESERVOIR	COOP	83
NY	MONTGOMERY ORANGE COUNTY AP	WBAN	83
CT	DANBURY MUNICIPAL AP	WBAN	81
NY	CARMEL 4N	COOP	80
NY	NY CITY CENTRAL PARK	WBAN	79
NY	CENTERPORT	COOP	77
NY	SYOSSET	COOP	77
NY	BAITING HOLLOW	COOP	77
CT	MERIDEN MARKHAM MUNICIPAL AP	WBAN	77
CT	OXFORD WATERBURY	WBAN	76
NY	RIVERHEAD RESEARCH FARM	COOP	75
CT	STAMFORD 5 N	COOP	74
NY	WESTCHESTER CO AP	WBAN	74
CT	NORWICH PUBLIC UTILITY PLANT	COOP	74
NY	FARMINGDALE REPUBLIC AP	WBAN	73
NY	ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP	WBAN	73
NY	JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT	WBAN	72
CT	NEW HAVEN TWEED AP	WBAN	72
NY	UPTON COOP - NWSFO NEW YORK	COOP	72
NY	LAGUARDIA AIRPORT	WBAN	71
CT	IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT	WBAN	71
NY	SHIRLEY BROOKHAVEN AIRPORT	WBAN	71
CT	GROTON NEW LONDON AP	WBAN	70
NY	WESTHAMPTON GABRESKI AP	WBAN	69
NY	MONTAUK AIRPORT	WBAN	65
NY	ORIENT POINT STATE PARK	COOP	65
NY	BRIDGEHAMPTON	COOP

 

 

 

[ILoveWinter]

When does it look like we will break out of this coolish pattern? 

[Santa Claus]

deep blue sky.  almost purplish.  this is what it looks like out west when it’s dry like this all the time.

[uncle W]

6 hours ago, bluewave said:

The low temperatures this morning came in warmer than models forecast. So the cooler high temperatures  this month have kept the departures down. Several of our stations will finish near the top for warmest April lowest temperatures. One of the few times that cool spots like HPN didn’t drop below freezing in April. 
 

 

Time Series Summary for WESTCHESTER CO AP, NY - Month of Apr
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Lowest Min Temperature	Missing Count
1	2010	36	0
2	2017	33	0
-	1983	33	1
-	1953	33	0
3	2022	32	5
-	2006	32	0
-	2005	32	0
-	1999	32	6
-	1998	32	5
-	1988	32	1
-	1986	32	0
-	1960	32	1

 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of Apr
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Lowest Min Temperature	Missing Count
1	1878	42	0
2	2010	40	0
3	2022	38	3
-	2012	38	0

 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Apr
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Lowest Min Temperature	Missing Count
1	2012	38	0
-	2010	38	0
2	2011	37	0
-	1998	37	0
3	2022	36	3
-	2017	36	0
-	1994	36	0

 

Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY - Month of Apr
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Lowest Min Temperature	Missing Count
1	2017	34	0
-	2010	34	0
-	1988	34	0
2	2022	33	3
-	1999	33	0
-	1983	33	0
3	2012	32	0
-	2011	32	0
-	1993	32	0
-	1991	32	0

I bet this April had the warmest low of any Aprils this cool…

[bluewave]

27 minutes ago, uncle W said:

I bet this April had the warmest low of any Aprils this cool…

Yeah, a monthly minimum this warm generally had much higher monthly average temperatures. 
 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Apr
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Lowest Min Temperature	Average  Temperature
1	2012	38	55.2
-	2010	38	57.9
2	2011	37	55.5
-	1998	37	53.9
3	2022	36	53.4
-	2017	36	57.2
-	1994	36	57.4

[LoboLeader1]

54 here as of 3PM, winds quite gusty out of the WNW up to 25MPH.

[winterwx21]

2 hours ago, Will - Rutgers said:

deep blue sky.  almost purplish.  this is what it looks like out west when it’s dry like this all the time.

Beautiful day, despite the wind. Temp is up to 59 here.

[FPizz]

11 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

Beautiful day, despite the wind. Temp is up to 59 here.

Warm in my old town.  54 here.  

[bluewave]

I started a new thread to discuss the May pattern.

 

 

[donsutherland1]

Another cold night lies ahead. The cooler than normal weather will likely persist through the middle of the first week of May on account of the ongoing blocking. Then, there could be a short-lived rebound in temperatures before cooler air returns.

During the 1991-2020 period, the April 25-May 5 period saw temperatures average 1°-2° below normal when strong blocking coincided with Niña conditions. Afterward, approximately 50% of such cases went on to see a warmer to much warmer than normal second half of May.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.9°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.0°C for the week centered around April 20. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.98°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.92°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist into the start of June.

The SOI was +30.35 today. That was the second consecutive day on which the SOI was +30.00 or above. The last time that happened was December 25-26, 2021. The last time that happened in April was April 8-9, 2011.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.901 today.

On April 26 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 0.537 (RMM). The April 25-adjusted amplitude was 0.423 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal April (1991-2020 normal). April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 52.7° (1.0° below normal).

 

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts…

It will be partly sunny to mostly sunny and a bit milder. High temperatures will likely reach the lower 60s in much of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 63°

Newark: 64°

Philadelphia: 64°

Below normal temperatures will persist through the middle of the first week of May.

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 66.9°; 15-Year: 67.5°

Newark: 30-Year: 67.8°; 15-Year: 68.3°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 69.7°; 15-Year: 70.1°

[CIK62]

The last two days of April are averaging 53degs.(42/63) or -4 

Month to date is  52.7[-0.6].       April will end at  52.7[-1.0].

Reached 58 here yesterday.

Today: 61-65, wind nw., breezy till late PM, m. clear, 46 by tomorrow AM.

Wettish week incoming starting Tuesday.

42*(37%RH) here at 7am.    45*(31%RH) at 9am.        53*(27%RH) at Noon.       59*(25%RH) at 3pm.      61*(24%RH) at 4pm.      Reached  65*(23%RH) at 6:30pm.          57* at 9pm.