April 2022

[SnoSki14]

Some strong backdooring showing up now. 70+ days will be hard to come by

[forkyfork]

and then it'll suddenly become midsummer sometime in mid/late may

[Eduardo]

On 4/16/2022 at 3:42 PM, Eduardo said:

Am I wrong in feeling like this is becoming a persistent theme since 2016 (tepid winter blocking, followed by robust spring blocking)?  I realize that we’ve had some blocky periods during some recent winters but, by and large, it feels like we’ve gotten more frequent blocky periods in the spring.

 

On 4/16/2022 at 5:31 PM, bluewave said:

The blocking has been more impressive during the spring than the winter since the super El Niño.

 

37 minutes ago, bluewave said:

You know it must be the spring when these -AO forecasts correct stronger over time.

New run 

Old run

Yeah I'm about ready to change the channel now—preferably to one that features blocking at the "right times."  :-)

[STORMANLI]

4 hours ago, rclab said:

Good morning all. Ref: NOAA; sometime between 4 and 5:51 the CPK low was 39 degrees. Sunshine over the postage stamp right now. Below is a screen shot sample of the weather alert that is delivered by our local zip digital news called Patch. Stay safe and dry tonight. As always ….

 

Further out on LI...

https://patch.com/new-york/massapequa/strong-storm-hit-long-island-tonight

 

I am thinking 1" or less.

[Tekken_Guy]

12z GFS has a Mon/Thu peak of 60 for this Thursday. Looks like I may actually have to leave AW for the summer.

[Tatamy]

2 hours ago, Tatamy said:

It is presently snowing hard along I81 in south central PA well to the SW of Harrisburg.  I am seeing visibility’s as low as 1/4 mile with accumulations on grassy surfaces near the Maryland border.  Elevations there run about 500-700’.

Still snowing moderately along I81 all the way from the MD border up to the Hazleton area in PA.  Mixed with rain in the Harrisburg area.  To have snow along most of the length of that highway at this time of the year is probably unprecedented.  It’s rare even in January.  Elevations range from 300’ to 1500’ along that stretch.

[jm1220]

14 minutes ago, Tatamy said:

Still snowing moderately along I81 all the way from the MD border up to the Hazleton area in PA.  Mixed with rain in the Harrisburg area.  To have snow along most of the length of that highway at this time of the year is probably unprecedented.  It’s rare even in January.  Elevations range from 300’ to 1500’ along that stretch.

Very nice event out in central PA for a change, too bad it had to come so late in the season. Hopefully the developing CCB can hold in heavy snow for a while. That’ll determine who can pile up to warning totals vs advisory. It’s always annoying when you’re snowing heavy and the dryslot comes in to shut it off after 3 hours which is a very frequent problem in PA.  

[bluewave]

Friday may be the best chance for NYC and Newark to make a run on 70° for a while. The SE Ridge duels with the -AO block over the next week. So backdoor cold fronts will come into play. Very sharp gradient for us over the weekend. The area around NYC could stay in the 60s with 70s and 80s to the west on Sunday.The EPS has an unusually strong block from Greenland to Alaska from late April into early May. This will favor a trough of low pressure in the Northeast. There could be some late season freezes for the interior parts of the region.

 

Apr 18-25

 

 

Apr 25-May 2

 

[LibertyBell]

5 hours ago, BucksCO_PA said:

PHL recorded a low of 32 degrees this morning, that ties 1983 for the 2nd coldest temp on the date & the coldest since 1875. This also represents the latest freeze at Philadelphia since 1988.

Over the past 30 yrs. the average date of the last freeze at PHL is 3/31.

and like I've seen saying there was an HECS on this date in 1983!

 

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, bluewave said:

You know it must be the spring when these -AO forecasts correct stronger over time.

New run 

Old run

Going forward if anyone wants snow they really should live in the mountains.  Coastal areas weren't really meant for much snow anyway.

Chris, if we have a strong block right now, why is this storm taking a hugger track?  Also, would any track, even a benchmark track matter this time of year, or no  matter what would this have been rain for us?

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, forkyfork said:

and then it'll suddenly become midsummer sometime in mid/late may

Memorial Day weekend is just fine with me, that's when it's supposed to get hot.

[LibertyBell]

32 minutes ago, Tatamy said:

Still snowing moderately along I81 all the way from the MD border up to the Hazleton area in PA.  Mixed with rain in the Harrisburg area.  To have snow along most of the length of that highway at this time of the year is probably unprecedented.  It’s rare even in January.  Elevations range from 300’ to 1500’ along that stretch.

wow snow close to my house!...how much do you think has fallen there? I think there will be 4-6 there from this storm.

[LibertyBell]

13 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Very nice event out in central PA for a change, too bad it had to come so late in the season. Hopefully the developing CCB can hold in heavy snow for a while. That’ll determine who can pile up to warning totals vs advisory. It’s always annoying when you’re snowing heavy and the dryslot comes in to shut it off after 3 hours which is a very frequent problem in PA.  

do you think if this storm had taken a benchmark track we would have gotten that snow or do you think it never would have happened here no matter what?

[Dark Star]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

do you think if this storm had taken a benchmark track we would have gotten that snow or do you think it never would have happened here no matter what?

If this were winter...

[donsutherland1]

On this date in 1887, a storm dumped 3" of snow in New York City. This time around, a storm will bring snow to an area running from Pennsylvania into northern New England and a heavy windswept rain to the coastal plain tonight into early tomorrow. A general 0.50"-1.50" rainfall with locally higher amounts in excess of 2.00" is likely. Winds could gust past 50 mph.

Snow is likely in the higher elevations and in the interior. The Poconos, Catskills, and Adirondacks could see an appreciable accumulation of snow.

Seasonal snowfall amounts to date include:

Albany: 33.6" (25.2" below normal)
Allentown: 19.5" (33.6" below normal)
Baltimore: 14.4" (4.9" below normal)
Binghamton: 67.2" (18.3" below normal)
Boston: 54.0" (5.0" above normal)
Bridgeport: 27.7" (5.8" below normal)
Buffalo: 96.0" (1.0" above normal)
Burlington: 66.5" (20.0" below normal)
Caribou: 120.1" (4.5" above normal)
Harrisburg: 16.4" (13.4" below normal)
Islip: 37.0" (5.3" above normal)
New York City: 17.9" (11.9" below normal)
Newark: 17.9" (13.6" below normal)
Philadelphia: 12.9" (10.2" below normal)
Portland: 44.1" (24.2" below normal)
Providence: 43.5" (7.0" above normal)
Washington, DC: 13.2" (0.5" below normal)

After midweek, milder conditions will develop.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.9°C for the week centered around April 13. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.80°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.88°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist into the start of June.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly of -1.7°C is the lowest such figure on record for a week centered around April 13. The old record was -1.4°C, which was set in 1994. Since 1982, there were five prior cases where the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.5°C or colder. 40% of those cases saw La Niña conditions the following winter; 40% saw neutral-cool ENSO conditions that approached but did not reach La Niña status. 20% of those cases saw an El Niño develop during the following winter. More immediately, the magnitude of cool anomalies implies that the proverbial stage is set for an active to very active Atlantic hurricane season.

The SOI was +20.19 today. During April 5-14, the SOI had a 10-day stretch during which the SOI was +20.00 or above. The last time a streak of 7 or more such days occurred in April was March 28-April 5, 2011 when the SOI reached at least +20.00 on 9 consecutive days. Then, there was a brief period of much warmer than normal temperatures following the end of that stretch and a longer period of much warmer than normal temperatures starting about 2 1/2 weeks later.  

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.917 today.

On April 16 the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 1.293 (RMM). The April 15-adjusted amplitude was 1.012 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 50% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal April (1991-2020 normal). April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 53.7° (normal).

 

[LoboLeader1]

51 for a high today, currently 45 and cloudy. 

[Tekken_Guy]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Friday may be the best chance for NYC and Newark to make a run on 70° for a while. The SE Ridge duels with the -AO block over the next week. So backdoor cold fronts will come into play. Very sharp gradient for us over the weekend. The area around NYC could stay in the 60s with 70s and 80s to the west on Sunday.The EPS has an unusually strong block from Greenland to Alaska from late April into early May. This will favor a trough of low pressure in the Northeast. There could be some late season freezes for the interior parts of the region.

 

Apr 18-25

 

 

Apr 25-May 2

 

What about Monday 4/25? Friday doesn't count towards whether or not I have to leave the forum after 5/5. Monday will.

4/21, 4/25, 4/28, 5/2, and 5/5 are the five days left. If KCDW hits 70 degrees just once, I stay. Otherwise I'm leaving for the summer.

[WarrenCtyWx]

Snow mixing in here in NW NJ.

[MJO812]

I'm so jealous of the interior 

[Tatamy]

2 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

wow snow close to my house!...how much do you think has fallen there? I think there will be 4-6 there from this storm.

Do you know what the elevation of your property is?  Right now it looks like the snow line up that way is on the order of about 1500’.

[Tatamy]

13 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

I'm so jealous of the interior 

Those of us who are inland are more likely to see white rain out of this one.  You will have to be fairly high up for at least the first part of the night in order to see snow that sticks.  Snow levels are expected to drop a bit in those elevated locations well after midnight.

[ForestHillWx]

36 here in Chester, NJ as I came up 206 north; was 43 at the office. 
 

I feel like there are some cat paws falling with the heavier returns; or my eyes are playing tricks on me. 

[gpsnavigator]

Rain and snow mixed in Sparta.  More snow falls when the precip is heavier, not so much when it lightens up.  Temp 40, elevation 800'.

[terrapin8100]

Rain/sleet mix in Ossining. 43°

[nj08822]

Some snowflakes mixed in - Nazareth PA, 75 miles west of NYC.

[donsutherland1]

Plain rain in Larchmont, NY.

[jm1220]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

I'm so jealous of the interior 

Don’t be. I’d rather be here for snow for the last 10 winters generally than anywhere in central PA other than orographically favored places. It’s a lousy place to live if you want major snow events. 

[nycsnow]

Winds picking up

[NepaJames8602]

My house currently in Newfoundland Pa, elevation 2,075’. I’m located on the Nw side of the Pocono Plateau. Roughly one inch so far, and light to moderate snow, temp is 32 degrees. 18z Rgem, Gfs, and some other short range guidance hammer my area with up to 12”inches overnight. I guess we will see how it looks in the am. Roads up here are already a mess. 

[gpsnavigator]

Down to 36.7  I'm starting to see a light coating on my grill cover and deck table.  

I'd imagine High Point and other points just to my N & W are starting to get in on some actual measurable accumulation.

Update: 36.3 now and the precip sounds like sleet pinging off the deck.