bluewave Posted April 10, 2022 Author Share Posted April 10, 2022 2 hours ago, LibertyBell said: That was amazing and low humidity too! To be fair I have certain benchmarks for the highest temperatures I expect to see each month-- it's 70s in March, 80s in April, 90s by June. I consider that we should have a four month snow season (DJFM), two months of spring weather (AM), four months of summer (JJAS), and two months of autumnal weather (ON). Ant's 6 months of winter is unreasonable, even when we get snow in November or April it's not really part of our snow season....4 months is the most we should reasonably expect. Those were the old days when we used to get westerly flow heatwaves combined with extreme drought. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted April 10, 2022 Share Posted April 10, 2022 1 hour ago, uncle W said: just had what looked like wet flakes falling for a brief time...only in the spring can you see snow reach the ground with temperatures in the upper 40's... Yup. I had two heavy white rain bursts today. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted April 10, 2022 Share Posted April 10, 2022 Despite considerable clouds, sprinkles, and a temperature in the upper 40s, spring scenes are widespread throughout the New York Botanical Garden. 3 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted April 10, 2022 Share Posted April 10, 2022 18 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: Despite considerable clouds, sprinkles, and a temperature in the upper 40s, spring scenes are widespread throughout the New York Botanical Garden. Wow, it definitely looks more spring-like down there than up here. Thanks for sharing the pics. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted April 10, 2022 Share Posted April 10, 2022 26 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Wow, it definitely looks more spring-like down there than up here. Thanks for sharing the pics. It is quite springlike here in terms of flowers. Some were damaged by the late March cold. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted April 10, 2022 Share Posted April 10, 2022 1 minute ago, donsutherland1 said: It is quite springlike here in terms of flowers. Some were damaged by the late March cold. Hopefully there isn't more damage if we get that cold punch the week after Easter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 10, 2022 Author Share Posted April 10, 2022 17 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Hopefully there isn't more damage if we get that cold punch the week after Easter. Even with the lows under 25° For two days, there was only some damage to the early blooms. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted April 10, 2022 Share Posted April 10, 2022 Noticeably warmer air will begin to move into the region starting tomorrow. Tuesday through Friday will generally be warmer to much warmer than normal. There could be brief interruptions of the warmth from backdoor cold fronts. The Northern Plains could witness the development of a major spring snowstorm or blizzard tomorrow night or Tuesday. Parts of North Dakota could see 1-2 feet of snow with drifts in excess of 4 feet. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around March 30. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.80°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.90°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist into at least mid-April. The SOI was +21.41 today. Today was the 6th consecutive day that the SOI was +20.00 or above. The last time that happened was January 13-19, 2021 when the SOI reached +20.00 or above on 7 consecutive days. The last time that happened in April was March 28-April 5, 2011 when the SOI reached at least +20.00 on 9 consecutive days. Then, there was a brief period of much warmer than normal temperatures following the end of that stretch and a longer period of much warmer than normal temperatures starting about 2 1/2 weeks later. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.977 today. On April 8 the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 0.355 (RMM). The April 7-adjusted amplitude was 0.423 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 54% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal April (1991-2020 normal). April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 54.0° (0.3° above normal). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted April 10, 2022 Share Posted April 10, 2022 3 hours ago, bluewave said: Those were the old days when we used to get westerly flow heatwaves combined with extreme drought. The good old days with low pollen counts and better air quality. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Star Posted April 10, 2022 Share Posted April 10, 2022 3 hours ago, gravitylover said: Yup. I had two heavy white rain bursts today. Had some graupel a little while ago... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 10, 2022 Author Share Posted April 10, 2022 5 hours ago, uncle W said: just had what looked like wet flakes falling for a brief time...only in the spring can you see snow reach the ground with temperatures in the upper 40's... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tekken_Guy Posted April 11, 2022 Share Posted April 11, 2022 The latest 18z GFS shows goes back to full blast on the Thursday warmth with low cloud coverage virtually nonexistent in the forecast. 79 is the warmest the forecast has shown for the short term since Friday's 18z, which also hit 79 for Thursday. On the other hand, we have a 10+ day streak of sub-70s (plus a 7-day streak of sub-60s) starting the day after Easter. The post-Easter peak is 65 on Sunday the 24th, which is also the lowest post-Easter maximum high the model has forecast since also the Friday 18z in which the 23rd also hit 65. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted April 11, 2022 Share Posted April 11, 2022 4 hours ago, LibertyBell said: The good old days with low pollen counts and better air quality. very unusual to have exceptional drought in the northeast in april then again in 2002 we had days in the mid 90's in nyc 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted April 11, 2022 Share Posted April 11, 2022 9 hours ago, Tekken_Guy said: The latest 18z GFS shows goes back to full blast on the Thursday warmth with low cloud coverage virtually nonexistent in the forecast. 79 is the warmest the forecast has shown for the short term since Friday's 18z, which also hit 79 for Thursday. On the other hand, we have a 10+ day streak of sub-70s (plus a 7-day streak of sub-60s) starting the day after Easter. The post-Easter peak is 65 on Sunday the 24th, which is also the lowest post-Easter maximum high the model has forecast since also the Friday 18z in which the 23rd also hit 65. yes this is not what I would call a real warm pattern.... it's just a function of storm placement and being warm sectored. Most of the country is going to be much colder than normal. whats going on with that storm on the 19th which looked like a cold rain or a mix? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted April 11, 2022 Share Posted April 11, 2022 Morning thoughts… Warmer air will begin to move into the region. It will be partly sunny and milder today. High temperatures will likely reach the upper 50s and lower 60s in much of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 57° Newark: 59° Philadelphia: 63° Much of the week will see above to much above normal temperatures. Back door cold fronts could briefly interrupt the warmth in some areas. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 60.1°; 15-Year: 60.4° Newark: 30-Year: 60.9°; 15-Year: 61.3° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 63.0°; 15-Year: 63.6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoboLeader1 Posted April 11, 2022 Share Posted April 11, 2022 High of 49 yesterday. Currently 37 as of 6AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted April 11, 2022 Share Posted April 11, 2022 The next 8 days are averaging 56degs.(49/63) or +3. Reached 50 here yesterday. Today: 55-58, wind w., clear then clouds late, 51 by tomorrow AM. Thursday will be the warmest day so far this year at 76-80. 41*(57%RH) here at 7am. 44* at 9am. 46* at 10am. 48* at Noon. 50* at 1pm. 53* at 1:45pm(high) 52* at 2pm. 51*-52* all PM, 50* at 6pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted April 11, 2022 Share Posted April 11, 2022 13 hours ago, bluewave said: Even with the lows under 25° For two days, there was only some damage to the early blooms. yeah 25 degrees isn't what it used to be ... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 11, 2022 Author Share Posted April 11, 2022 44 minutes ago, uncle W said: yeah 25 degrees isn't what it used to be ... The blooms should be nice this week as Newark is on track for its first 80°+ of the season by Thursday. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted April 11, 2022 Share Posted April 11, 2022 The posts from the city about spring are funny. Not even a leaf on a tree or a bud for a leaf in westchester with a stiff wind last night. If you told me it was still winter I would’ve believed you. Late leaf our coming this year 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted April 11, 2022 Share Posted April 11, 2022 NYC might get close to 80 degrees on Thursday but I think probably tops out around 78 or 79. But the two factors that could hold temperatures lower are cloudcover and the winds being too southerly off of the still relatively cool ocean waters south of LI. Tomorrow NYC should get to 76 or 77. I like the model trends overnight some subtle hints of the jet stream relaxing in the fantasy range. It's good to see the storm track begin to shift further north even by just a little bit. WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 11, 2022 Author Share Posted April 11, 2022 14 minutes ago, the_other_guy said: The posts from the city about spring are funny. Not even a leaf on a tree or a bud for a leaf in westchester with a stiff wind last night. If you told me it was still winter I would’ve believed you. Late leaf our coming this year The humid subtropical zone has shifted north but it stops near the Bronx/Westchester line. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted April 11, 2022 Share Posted April 11, 2022 32 degrees this morning in NW Suffolk, likely the last freeze of the spring Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted April 11, 2022 Share Posted April 11, 2022 2 hours ago, the_other_guy said: The posts from the city about spring are funny. Not even a leaf on a tree or a bud for a leaf in westchester with a stiff wind last night. If you told me it was still winter I would’ve believed you. Late leaf our coming this year Not much here either other than forsythia and daffodils. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted April 11, 2022 Share Posted April 11, 2022 I expect full leaf out here in 2 to 3 weeks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted April 11, 2022 Share Posted April 11, 2022 Crazy that the solar output is now the same as August 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted April 11, 2022 Share Posted April 11, 2022 3 hours ago, the_other_guy said: The posts from the city about spring are funny. Not even a leaf on a tree or a bud for a leaf in westchester with a stiff wind last night. If you told me it was still winter I would’ve believed you. Late leaf our coming this year 1 hour ago, Brian5671 said: Not much here either other than forsythia and daffodils. I never expect full leaf out here until the third week of April but, as usual, "green up" has started. The buds are filling out on almost everything and some things like berries and rhododendrons are bursting today. There's a very noticeable difference in the ground moisture as every plant around started sucking the ground dry last week to make it happen so even with the recent rain it's not as soggy as you'd expect. It's almost here, pretty much right on time. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 11, 2022 Author Share Posted April 11, 2022 Record -PNA trough out West is taking a bunch of trees down in Portland with the historic late season snowfall. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted April 11, 2022 Share Posted April 11, 2022 5 hours ago, uncle W said: yeah 25 degrees isn't what it used to be ... Portland Oregon getting unprecedented April snow! https://twitter.com/search?q="Snow in April"&src=trend_click&pt=1513480229645287435&vertical=trends 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted April 11, 2022 Share Posted April 11, 2022 3 hours ago, bluewave said: The humid subtropical zone has shifted north but it stops near the Bronx/Westchester line. Looks about the same as the typical rain/snow line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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