beavis1729 Posted May 12, 2022 Share Posted May 12, 2022 3 hours ago, Baum said: one of my pet peeves: SATURDAY NIGHT MOSTLY CLEAR WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE EVENING, FRIDAY MOSTLY SUNNY. A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. can it shower from a clear sky? "Mostly" has a probability and/or coverage element to it. My interpretation of "mostly clear" is that it's expected to be clear 80-95% of the time at a particular location. So, it could still be cloudy and/or rainy for the other 5-20% of the time. As I understand it, that could mean either (1) a 5-20% chance of any clouds/rain occurring in the region, or (2) it will definitely be cloudy/rainy in the region, but with only 5-20% coverage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted May 12, 2022 Share Posted May 12, 2022 lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted May 12, 2022 Share Posted May 12, 2022 2 hours ago, beavis1729 said: "Mostly" has a probability and/or coverage element to it. My interpretation of "mostly clear" is that it's expected to be clear 80-95% of the time at a particular location. So, it could still be cloudy and/or rainy for the other 5-20% of the time. As I understand it, that could mean either (1) a 5-20% chance of any clouds/rain occurring in the region, or (2) it will definitely be cloudy/rainy in the region, but with only 5-20% coverage. I get it. But still? Last time I saw anything fall on me from a clear sky a bird had shit on me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted May 12, 2022 Share Posted May 12, 2022 39 minutes ago, Baum said: I get it. But still? Last time I saw anything fall on me from a clear sky a bird had shit on me. Ha. If the forecast said "clear" with isolated showers, I could see your point...but it said "mostly clear"...which leaves some wiggle room. Just semantics, I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torchageddon Posted May 12, 2022 Share Posted May 12, 2022 It was 22 years ago today that I experienced the worst storm, reminder that it lasted 5 hours and had everything except hail but was warned for such. I was going to post the radar images I found years ago on ISU's IEM but I can't find that portal. The images I saved are on an unknown storage device. https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/search?q=interactive+radar It all started from a fast moving cell that originated in Iowa that morning. It was a very intense cell during the course of its life. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 12, 2022 Share Posted May 12, 2022 May 2000 was good for me too. Got blasted on May 8 (I think) with some very high winds and then had another good storm on the 18th. In the latter case, I was sitting in a drive-thru when it went tornado warned. Nasty looking green sky. Didn't produce a tornado but had some good winds and hail. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Doctor Posted May 12, 2022 Share Posted May 12, 2022 What's the point of having a 60% hatched wind category if you're never going to use it? How do you only issue a Moderate risk at 20z when 20 minutes later you drop a PDS severe watch with double 95s for wind probs? Is the SPC just afraid of marking an event as "High" risk because that's some sacred territory that 8/10/20, 12/15/21, and now today somehow don't belong in (despite easily verifying the probability requirement)? IDK why this bothers me because it doesn't really matter, but jeez just make 60% hatch wind be Moderate already if that's actually the case. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torchageddon Posted May 13, 2022 Share Posted May 13, 2022 I was playing around with a new AI search engine and this is what it spat out for tornado wind record: There is a fandom wiki just for hypothetical tornadoes https://hypotheticaltornadoes.fandom.com/wiki/Hypothetical_Tornadoes_Wiki Outlined: "2,662 articles and 73,513 edits edited by 39 friendly active users since March 2, 2012 - Complete with a discord server" I can't believe thousands have been made. Some are detailed with pics and sub-par Meteorological History diction. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted May 19, 2022 Share Posted May 19, 2022 NEXT SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO ARRIVE MIDWEEK WITH POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER HEALTHY RAINFALL SNOWFALL FOLLOWED BY MORE BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. - IZZI Dude is a jinx. Where was this in mid winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted May 20, 2022 Share Posted May 20, 2022 Denver hit 88 today, and winter storm warning tomorrow night for 8"+ snow. What's even more interesting is they have 85 in the point for next Thursday lol. Summer, snowstorm, and then summer again. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 20, 2022 Share Posted May 20, 2022 17 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: Denver hit 88 today, and winter storm warning tomorrow night for 8"+ snow. What's even more interesting is they have 85 in the point for next Thursday lol. Summer, snowstorm, and then summer again. They get some wild swings there, but that is probably a little impressive even by their standards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted May 20, 2022 Share Posted May 20, 2022 8 hours ago, cyclone77 said: Denver hit 88 today, and winter storm warning tomorrow night for 8"+ snow. What's even more interesting is they have 85 in the point for next Thursday lol. Summer, snowstorm, and then summer again. If Denver gets more than 3.8", it will be their 3rd largest snowstorm on record for so late in the season. They had 10.7" on May 25-26, 1950 and 5.6" on 5/29/1975...which are both insane. Latest measurable snow was 0.5" on 6/5/1953. Possibly even more impressive - if the temp drops below 30 this weekend, it will be the coldest ever for so late in the season. It was 30 on 6/2/1951, but has never been colder than 30 after May 19th. Records go back 150 years, to 1872. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted May 20, 2022 Share Posted May 20, 2022 8 hours ago, beavis1729 said: If Denver gets more than 3.8", it will be their 3rd largest snowstorm on record for so late in the season. They had 10.7" on May 25-26, 1950 and 5.6" on 5/29/1975...which are both insane. Latest measurable snow was 0.5" on 6/5/1953. Possibly even more impressive - if the temp drops below 30 this weekend, it will be the coldest ever for so late in the season. It was 30 on 6/2/1951, but has never been colder than 30 after May 19th. Records go back 150 years, to 1872. Interesting since that was a couple days before the Flint Beecher tornado. Guess it shows how dynamic that system was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 21, 2022 Share Posted May 21, 2022 The post in the severe thread about the Gaylord tornado being the first deadly tornado in MI in 13+ years got me thinking about my state, so I did some research. It has been 10 years since the last killer tornado in Indiana, which is the longest gap since modern records began. Since 1950, the years with killer tornadoes are 1953, 1954, 1956, 1961, 1963, 1965, 1968, 1971, 1974, 1976, 1977, 1979, 1980, 1986, 1990, 1991, 1994, 1995, 2001, 2004, 2005, 2008, 2012. Some of it is probably due to better/more timely warnings but some of it comes down to luck. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted May 22, 2022 Share Posted May 22, 2022 On 5/21/2022 at 1:01 PM, Hoosier said: The post in the severe thread about the Gaylord tornado being the first deadly tornado in MI in 13+ years got me thinking about my state, so I did some research. It has been 10 years since the last killer tornado in Indiana, which is the longest gap since modern records began. Since 1950, the years with killer tornadoes are 1953, 1954, 1956, 1961, 1963, 1965, 1968, 1971, 1974, 1976, 1977, 1979, 1980, 1986, 1990, 1991, 1994, 1995, 2001, 2004, 2005, 2008, 2012. Some of it is probably due to better/more timely warnings but some of it comes down to luck. Well. People take tornado warnings very seriously in Indiana. Not so much in northern Michigan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 23, 2022 Share Posted May 23, 2022 What a snoozer of a month for severe wx around here. June can be good in the LOT cwa. Hopefully this one has some action. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted May 25, 2022 Share Posted May 25, 2022 Here we are in late May and we still can't get anything but cool/cold rain. When warm and humid air finally surges up here the atmosphere is strongly capped. That's what happened last week and it's going to repeat this weekend into next week. This is supposed to be the heart of our severe season. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted May 25, 2022 Share Posted May 25, 2022 1 hour ago, hawkeye_wx said: Here we are in late May and we still can't get anything but cool/cold rain. When warm and humid air finally surges up here the atmosphere is strongly capped. That's what happened last week and it's going to repeat this weekend into next week. This is supposed to be the heart of our severe season. August 10, 2020 Derecho says stop whining. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted May 25, 2022 Share Posted May 25, 2022 that's his schtick and we should let him have it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted May 25, 2022 Share Posted May 25, 2022 48 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: that's his schtick and we should let him have it you are correct. On another note, just cut the grass in the dry window and despite the dampness it still feels mild and muggy. Sure sign we've turned a corner when after a rain, and cloudy day it still has a summer feel. Haven't felt warm and muggy on a cloudy day since a day or two before Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted May 25, 2022 Share Posted May 25, 2022 2 hours ago, hawkeye_wx said: Here we are in late May and we still can't get anything but cool/cold rain. When warm and humid air finally surges up here the atmosphere is strongly capped. That's what happened last week and it's going to repeat this weekend into next week. This is supposed to be the heart of our severe season. That's why I'm desperation chasing an 11th hour 5% today. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WaryWarren Posted May 25, 2022 Share Posted May 25, 2022 In five short months, the leaves will have fallen and will be crunching underfoot. 2 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hardypalmguy Posted May 25, 2022 Share Posted May 25, 2022 Barely 50 degrees at end of May. Cold, stratiform rain. I think the weather on Christmas Day was warmer and better. Horrible climo. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted May 26, 2022 Share Posted May 26, 2022 more like suckville right? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hardypalmguy Posted May 26, 2022 Share Posted May 26, 2022 2 hours ago, A-L-E-K said: more like suckville right? Who wants to live in Murder City down there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted May 26, 2022 Share Posted May 26, 2022 love murder so me obv 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 28, 2022 Share Posted May 28, 2022 My niece graduated kindergarten and the school had a ceremony for the kids. It was cute. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted May 29, 2022 Share Posted May 29, 2022 Just dropping by the regional forums to let everyone know there's a seasonal hurricane forecast contest open here: https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/57386-2022-north-atlantic-hurricane-forecast-contest-_-enter-by-june-1st/?tab=comments#comment-6537694 Deadline is Wed June 1st. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torchageddon Posted May 30, 2022 Share Posted May 30, 2022 I put a question in AndiSearch I never thought I'd get a clear answer to but was surprised and then dumbfounded: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted May 30, 2022 Share Posted May 30, 2022 24 minutes ago, Torchageddon said: I put a question in AndiSearch I never thought I'd get a clear answer to but was surprised and then dumbfounded: I figured it would have given you Broyles email address. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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