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Spring/Summer 2022 Complaint/Banter Hangout


IWXwx
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3 hours ago, Baum said:

one of my pet peeves:

SATURDAY NIGHT  
MOSTLY CLEAR WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE  
EVENING,

FRIDAY  
MOSTLY SUNNY. A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.

can it shower from a clear sky? 

 

"Mostly" has a probability and/or coverage element to it. 

My interpretation of "mostly clear" is that it's expected to be clear 80-95% of the time at a particular location.  So, it could still be cloudy and/or rainy for the other 5-20% of the time.  As I understand it, that could mean either (1) a 5-20% chance of any clouds/rain occurring in the region, or (2) it will definitely be cloudy/rainy in the region, but with only 5-20% coverage.  

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2 hours ago, beavis1729 said:

"Mostly" has a probability and/or coverage element to it. 

My interpretation of "mostly clear" is that it's expected to be clear 80-95% of the time at a particular location.  So, it could still be cloudy and/or rainy for the other 5-20% of the time.  As I understand it, that could mean either (1) a 5-20% chance of any clouds/rain occurring in the region, or (2) it will definitely be cloudy/rainy in the region, but with only 5-20% coverage.  

I get it. But still? Last time I saw anything fall on me from a clear sky a bird had shit on me.

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39 minutes ago, Baum said:

I get it. But still? Last time I saw anything fall on me from a clear sky a bird had shit on me.

Ha.  If the forecast said "clear" with isolated showers, I could see your point...but it said "mostly clear"...which leaves some wiggle room.

Just semantics, I guess. 

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It was 22 years ago today that I experienced the worst storm, reminder that it lasted 5 hours and had everything except hail but was warned for such. I was going to post the radar images I found years ago on ISU's IEM but I can't find that portal. The images I saved are on an unknown storage device.

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/search?q=interactive+radar

It all started from a fast moving cell that originated in Iowa that morning. It was a very intense cell during the course of its life.

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May 2000 was good for me too.  Got blasted on May 8 (I think) with some very high winds and then had another good storm on the 18th.  In the latter case, I was sitting in a drive-thru when it went tornado warned.  Nasty looking green sky.  Didn't produce a tornado but had some good winds and hail.

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What's the point of having a 60% hatched wind category if you're never going to use it? How do you only issue a Moderate risk at 20z when 20 minutes later you drop a PDS severe watch with double 95s for wind probs? Is the SPC just afraid of marking an event as "High" risk because that's some sacred territory that 8/10/20, 12/15/21, and now today somehow don't belong in (despite easily verifying the probability requirement)? IDK why this bothers me because it doesn't really matter, but jeez just make 60% hatch wind be Moderate already if that's actually the case.

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I was playing around with a new AI search engine and this is what it spat out for tornado wind record:

There is a fandom wiki just for hypothetical tornadoes :blink::lmao:

https://hypotheticaltornadoes.fandom.com/wiki/Hypothetical_Tornadoes_Wiki

Outlined: "2,662 articles and 73,513 edits edited by 39 friendly active users since March 2, 2012 - Complete with a discord server" 

I can't believe thousands have been made. Some are detailed with pics and sub-par Meteorological History diction.

First Andi Search Tornado Windspeed.png

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17 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

Denver hit 88 today, and winter storm warning tomorrow night for 8"+ snow.  

What's even more interesting is they have 85 in the point for next Thursday lol.  

Summer, snowstorm, and then summer again. 

They get some wild swings there, but that is probably a little impressive even by their standards.

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8 hours ago, cyclone77 said:

Denver hit 88 today, and winter storm warning tomorrow night for 8"+ snow.  

What's even more interesting is they have 85 in the point for next Thursday lol.  

Summer, snowstorm, and then summer again. 

If Denver gets more than 3.8", it will be their 3rd largest snowstorm on record for so late in the season.  They had 10.7" on May 25-26, 1950 and 5.6" on 5/29/1975...which are both insane. Latest measurable snow was 0.5" on 6/5/1953.

Possibly even more impressive - if the temp drops below 30 this weekend, it will be the coldest ever for so late in the season.  It was 30 on 6/2/1951, but has never been colder than 30 after May 19th.

Records go back 150 years, to 1872.

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8 hours ago, beavis1729 said:

If Denver gets more than 3.8", it will be their 3rd largest snowstorm on record for so late in the season.  They had 10.7" on May 25-26, 1950 and 5.6" on 5/29/1975...which are both insane. Latest measurable snow was 0.5" on 6/5/1953.

Possibly even more impressive - if the temp drops below 30 this weekend, it will be the coldest ever for so late in the season.  It was 30 on 6/2/1951, but has never been colder than 30 after May 19th.

Records go back 150 years, to 1872.

Interesting since that was a couple days before the Flint Beecher tornado. Guess it shows how dynamic that system was.

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The post in the severe thread about the Gaylord tornado being the first deadly tornado in MI in 13+ years got me thinking about my state, so I did some research.

It has been 10 years since the last killer tornado in Indiana, which is the longest gap since modern records began.  Since 1950, the years with killer tornadoes are 1953, 1954, 1956, 1961, 1963, 1965, 1968, 1971, 1974, 1976, 1977, 1979, 1980, 1986, 1990, 1991, 1994, 1995, 2001, 2004, 2005, 2008, 2012.  

Some of it is probably due to better/more timely warnings but some of it comes down to luck.

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On 5/21/2022 at 1:01 PM, Hoosier said:

The post in the severe thread about the Gaylord tornado being the first deadly tornado in MI in 13+ years got me thinking about my state, so I did some research.

It has been 10 years since the last killer tornado in Indiana, which is the longest gap since modern records began.  Since 1950, the years with killer tornadoes are 1953, 1954, 1956, 1961, 1963, 1965, 1968, 1971, 1974, 1976, 1977, 1979, 1980, 1986, 1990, 1991, 1994, 1995, 2001, 2004, 2005, 2008, 2012.  

Some of it is probably due to better/more timely warnings but some of it comes down to luck.

Well.  People take tornado warnings very seriously in Indiana.  Not so much in northern Michigan.

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Here we are in late May and we still can't get anything but cool/cold rain.  When warm and humid air finally surges up here the atmosphere is strongly capped.  That's what happened last week and it's going to repeat this weekend into next week.  This is supposed to be the heart of our severe season.

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1 hour ago, hawkeye_wx said:

Here we are in late May and we still can't get anything but cool/cold rain.  When warm and humid air finally surges up here the atmosphere is strongly capped.  That's what happened last week and it's going to repeat this weekend into next week.  This is supposed to be the heart of our severe season.

August 10, 2020 Derecho says stop whining.

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48 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

that's his schtick and we should let him have it

you are correct. On another note, just cut the grass in the dry window and despite the dampness it still feels mild and muggy. Sure sign we've turned a corner when after a rain, and cloudy day it still has a summer feel. Haven't felt warm and muggy on a cloudy day since a day or two before Christmas.

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2 hours ago, hawkeye_wx said:

Here we are in late May and we still can't get anything but cool/cold rain.  When warm and humid air finally surges up here the atmosphere is strongly capped.  That's what happened last week and it's going to repeat this weekend into next week.  This is supposed to be the heart of our severe season.

That's why I'm desperation chasing an 11th hour 5% today.

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