Chicago Storm Posted July 8, 2022 Share Posted July 8, 2022 The 6z run didn't seem as impressive in the Lakes/OV, but I flipped through it quickly so maybe I missed something.No, you’re right.12z was much more impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 8, 2022 Share Posted July 8, 2022 Interesting to see this being modeled on the GFS, which is a model that can have an aversion to big heat. Imagine if by some miracle we were able to get this in range on the HRRR. I think it would break the scale, haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted July 8, 2022 Share Posted July 8, 2022 10 minutes ago, Hoosier said: The 6z run didn't seem as impressive in the Lakes/OV, but I flipped through it quickly so maybe I missed something. The ridge/heat was centered further SW, but it was stronger/more intense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 8, 2022 Share Posted July 8, 2022 Another loltastic thing from that run... on the hottest day, it is already 105 at 10 am in Missouri. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted July 8, 2022 Share Posted July 8, 2022 Basically, the wet period didn't make a dent for most. Anyone got a map f area totals since July 4. And now it sounds like back to hot and dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted July 8, 2022 Share Posted July 8, 2022 Basically, the wet period didn't make a dent for most. Anyone got a map f area totals since July 4. And now it sounds like back to hot and dry.There definitely has been improvement, especially across portions of IA/S WI/IL/IN/OH. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 8, 2022 Share Posted July 8, 2022 22 minutes ago, Baum said: Basically, the wet period didn't make a dent for most. Anyone got a map f area totals since July 4. And now it sounds like back to hot and dry. Here's 7 day precip. Basically anything in blue or in the lightest shade of green is not enough as you want to be getting at least 1" per week at a minimum. Some areas did very well, but in other areas it was more like a stop the bleeding thing for the time being. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torchageddon Posted July 8, 2022 Share Posted July 8, 2022 21 hours ago, Chicago Storm said: @Hoosieris going to hold on to the 18z OP GFS run, and never let go. Save worthy run, Hr 372 is particularly wicked *chef's kiss* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted July 8, 2022 Share Posted July 8, 2022 1 hour ago, Hoosier said: Another loltastic thing from that run... on the hottest day, it is already 105 at 10 am in Missouri. Yeah. 12z is showing 110-115 in parts of Nebraska at Day 8...not completely clown range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted July 8, 2022 Share Posted July 8, 2022 lol @ mixing to over 650mb 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 8, 2022 Share Posted July 8, 2022 I have to wonder if it is even physically possible to pull off something this extreme nowadays. Yeah, we had it back in the Dust Bowl years... but that was then, IN the Dust Bowl. I guess it could be useful to see how droughty things were in the leadup back in 1954, which was another year that produced this kind of insane heat in the southern/western sub, particularly in the St. Louis area. If we get the kind of exceptionally hot airmass aloft that the GFS is advertising along with the exceptionally deep mixing, then yeah, I guess all bets are off. But both of those conditions would need to be satisfied -- the exceptional 850 mb temps and extremely deep mixing. Getting only one of those would cause things to fall short. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted July 8, 2022 Share Posted July 8, 2022 Stepping out the door if the GFS is right 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted July 8, 2022 Share Posted July 8, 2022 If it's any consolation, at least through 240hr, the EURO and GGEM aren't setting up to be as impressive with the heat/ridge as the GFS (so far). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted July 8, 2022 Share Posted July 8, 2022 If it's any consolation, at least through 240hr, the EURO and GGEM aren't setting up to be as impressive with the heat/ridge as the GFS (so far).Yea, the OP Euro/GEM and the EPS are all a long ways off from the OP GFS solution. Kind of why I started the mention in here, instead of another thread.The GEFS have made a steady flip towards more of what the OP GFS is showing though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted July 11, 2022 Share Posted July 11, 2022 On 7/8/2022 at 4:45 PM, Baum said: Basically, the wet period didn't make a dent for most. Anyone got a map f area totals since July 4. And now it sounds like back to hot and dry. It was never wet up here, and now more f*ckery. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted July 11, 2022 Share Posted July 11, 2022 A bit toasty in TX today. Cotulla is 109/63/113 at 3 pm local time...and only under a Heat Advisory. And far south TX isn't even under an advisory - Brownsville is 96/75/108. I'm guessing their advisory criteria is 110+. Just run of the mill stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 11, 2022 Share Posted July 11, 2022 8 minutes ago, beavis1729 said: A bit toasty in TX today. Cotulla is 109/63/113 at 3 pm local time...and only under a Heat Advisory. And far south TX isn't even under an advisory - Brownsville is 96/75/108. I'm guessing their advisory criteria is 110+. Just run of the mill stuff. My cousin from Houston is in town and was complaining that it was still too hot here yesterday. Like dude, it was 105 in Houston yesterday. Be grateful you missed that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 11, 2022 Share Posted July 11, 2022 Noticed that the "official" record high for Chicago today is 97, but Midway Airport hit 107 on this day in 1936. A 10 degree difference is a lot, but there was actually a 15 degree difference between the official high temp and the high temp at Midway on 7/23/1934. Official high was 94, while Midway hit 109, which is the hottest temp ever recorded at a Chicago observation site. The official observations were taken at the University of Chicago back in the 1930s, which is much closer to the lake than Midway. A number of those really hot days in the Dust Bowl years had a lake breeze. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted July 12, 2022 Share Posted July 12, 2022 lake breezes this time of year are liking flipping the switch from new orleans to san diego best climo 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted July 13, 2022 Share Posted July 13, 2022 Not liking the continued whiff SW lake shadow / lake deflection pattern this weekend. Just can’t get a break from the dryness this summer. Amped bad climo continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 13, 2022 Share Posted July 13, 2022 Don't want to get into a full-blown covid discussion because it can easily veer into politics, but just curious who has managed to avoid covid so far. I haven't knowingly had it but there were a couple times in the past couple years when I wondered... most recently in late December 2021. Was mildly under the wx but that was at the time when you might've had more luck striking oil in your backyard than finding a home test, and I never tested. Got the booster while I was sick and interestingly, whatever I had was basically gone the next day. Maybe a coincidence but I read that it's not impossible for a vax to kick the immune system into gear and fight off something other than what it's intended for. Anyway, I'd estimate about a third to maybe 40% of the people in my circle have had covid for sure... i.e. symptomatic and tested positive. More and more people all the time. I feel like there's a lot more of it out there now than what's reported since so many just do the home test or don't test at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hardypalmguy Posted July 13, 2022 Share Posted July 13, 2022 No vax here -- had COVID last September -- the nasty Delta. Recovered just fine at home with vitamin D, NAC, quercetin, zinc, etc. Multiple exposures since and so far haven't gotten any of the new variants. Seeing way more issues in my circle with vaxxed people now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted July 13, 2022 Share Posted July 13, 2022 15 minutes ago, Hoosier said: but just curious who has managed to avoid covid so far. I'm COVID-free, unvaxxed and have never taken a test, so likely a unicorn at this point. And this is all while living in states that have effectively been wide open since the brief lockdowns were lifted in May 2020. (I know certain folks in OT will have a ball with this revelation, and more power to them). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WaryWarren Posted July 13, 2022 Share Posted July 13, 2022 27 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Got the booster while I was sick wtf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 13, 2022 Share Posted July 13, 2022 34 minutes ago, Powerball said: I'm COVID-free, unvaxxed and have never taken a test, so likely a unicorn at this point. And this is all while living in states that have effectively been wide open since the brief lockdowns were lifted in May 2020. (I know certain folks in OT will have a ball with this revelation, and more power to them). Same story with my sister. She recently got a desk job at an assisted living facility (she is not required to be vaxxed) and if she still manages to avoid it, I might start thinking there are some special genes or something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 13, 2022 Share Posted July 13, 2022 22 minutes ago, WaryWarren said: wtf I read up on it before I went in. The general consensus was that it likely wouldn't be a problem to receive a vaccine while you're mildly ill with something, but you'd probably want to put it off if really ill because it could tax the body and possibly even diminish the vaccine response. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted July 13, 2022 Share Posted July 13, 2022 Don't know for sure if I had it, but imagine I had to have at some point. Worked through the whole thing (not from home), and was around many others who officially tested positive within a short time of being near me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted July 14, 2022 Author Share Posted July 14, 2022 I haven't had it as far as I know. Been vaxxed and both boosters. And yes, it's still out there and being passed around at a pretty good rate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted July 14, 2022 Share Posted July 14, 2022 When Broyles takes over the day3-day8 stretch at SPC he digs in like an Alabama tick. Nothing but Broyles for weeks lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted July 14, 2022 Share Posted July 14, 2022 No Covid for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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