Spring/Summer 2022 Complaint/Banter Hangout

[A-L-E-K]

On 4/26/2022 at 6:08 AM, A-L-E-K said:

at least we don't have to worry about hoosier posting that drought map for a while

 

 

[Hoosier]

I'll still be posting it if it expands from the Plains toward the MS River as predicted.   

[frostfern]

On 4/27/2022 at 2:23 PM, hardypalmguy said:

Try coming north to Wisconsin and watch the warm front stall at the WI/IL border several times each spring.

One of the annoying things if you're watching the 850 mb maps.  I usually figure +10 C or more means at least 70, but then you have bunch of convection passing by to the south and you're socked in with that shallow cold cloudy layer and sitting at 48 F despite +12 C at 850.  Ugly shallow inversion just north of the warm front always happens.

[hardypalmguy]

One of the annoying things if you're watching the 850 mb maps.  I usually figure +10 C or more means at least 70, but then you have bunch of convection passing by to the south and you're socked in with that shallow cold cloudy layer and sitting at 48 F despite +12 C at 850.  Ugly shallow inversion just north of the warm front always happens.

This is the truth. I see this year after year. And then the system passes and your 850s crash to zero but hit 60 because of west wind and sun.


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[frostfern]

2 minutes ago, hardypalmguy said:

This is the truth. I see this year after year. And then the system passes and your 850s crash to zero but hit 60 because of west wind and sun.


.

Yea.  I imagine it can be even worse just west of the lake with an east wind.  MCS low cloud debris, east wind off the lake, etc... all conspire to prevent good surface warming.  It does get increasingly possible to hit 60 even with a very cold trough overhead by the middle of May, but those pesky afternoon instability showers often knock it back into the low 50s before the day is done.

[frostfern]

Both GFS and Euro now have three rainy systems through May 10.  Missing the warm sector by 100 miles or so each one.  Sad.

[Snowstorms]

Tired of this cold now lol. The warmest we've gotten all year is 66F. Ridiculous.

I was down in D.C and Arlington, VA for a couple days earlier this week and it was so great to finally experience 70s and 80s again. 

[btcs31]

Just here to gripe as well. This pattern has finally gotten to me. The cloudiness is relenting and depressing. Also we can’t even get filtered sun, or breaks in the clouds. It’s just a thick never ending blanket of gray.

[A-L-E-K]

On 4/28/2022 at 11:00 AM, Hoosier said:

I'll still be posting it if it expands from the Plains toward the MS River as predicted.   

bust

 

[bowtie`]

1 hour ago, A-L-E-K said:

bust

 

Not the midwest, but think the great whites off the Delaware coast will notice the extra 15" of rain?

[hawkeye_wx]

Mother Nature is trying to ixnay the plains drought... good for everyone.

[Hoosier]

4 hours ago, btcs31 said:

Just here to gripe as well. This pattern has finally gotten to me. The cloudiness is relenting and depressing. Also we can’t even get filtered sun, or breaks in the clouds. It’s just a thick never ending blanket of gray.

Didn't you enjoy the minutes of filtered sun yesterday?

[btcs31]

21 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Didn't you enjoy the minutes of filtered sun yesterday?

It was glorious and my mood immediately flipped, and then back to the gray stuff with spitting rain no less.

[mississaugasnow]

Looks like May is mostly a write off for the GL region. It will of course start to get warmer but I think the way things are trending now this summer will be lacklustre in the heat department. 

[Hoosier]

57 minutes ago, mississaugasnow said:

Looks like May is mostly a write off for the GL region. It will of course start to get warmer but I think the way things are trending now this summer will be lacklustre in the heat department. 

Counterpoint:  when we flip, we flip hard

[Baum]

2 hours ago, mississaugasnow said:

Looks like May is mostly a write off for the GL region. It will of course start to get warmer but I think the way things are trending now this summer will be lacklustre in the heat department. 

this goes in the holiday forecast thread. Please include a map. Thanks in advance.

[hardypalmguy]

More 40s and rain this week. Endless garbage. Not any signs of leafing out yet.


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[frostfern]

3 hours ago, hardypalmguy said:

More 40s and rain this week. Endless garbage. Not any signs of leafing out yet.


.

It's the time of year where if the sun came out we could hit 60.  The real killer is the constant cloud cover.  Stuck on the wrong side of one system after another.  Now later in the week we get into one of those sh***y blocking patterns where it's actually warmer to the north because the sun is out while a cloudy cutoff hangs out to the south keeping things perpetually stuck in the 50s.

[Torchageddon]

For those in SE MI how much sunlight was there from Thurs-Sat? I saw some cirrus hanging around close but I didn't have mine til later Sat. Considering the nightmare we're in I was surprised I got that much sun those 3 days which gives me pause.

[Jonger]

This entire year has been horrendous. 

I really want out.

[beavis1729]

Amarillo TX is currently 84/20, RH 9%...and there's a frost advisory for tonight (around 35F)...then back up to 75 tomorrow.

[King James]

Crazy we didn’t get a spring this year at all 

[frostfern]

Euro is showing a brief torch potential around the 9th through 11th.  It's a little early for comfort, given it can STILL freeze until the middle of May given recent trends.  Hopefully less likely this year with wetter soil.  Would prefer some 70s.  Mid 80s for one day then back to 50s with nothing in between is quite annoying.

[IWXwx]

I'm happy with finally having a pattern change that truly flips sensible weather from cool and rainy. I just checked my CoCoRaHS records and realized that until yesterday, we have had at least a trace of precip in 38 out of the past 50 days.

That includes a stretch of 16 days in a row (3/30-4/14) and 22 out of 23 days (3/23-4/14) with at least a trace.

I'd say that's a legit complaint. Now on to summer!

[madwx]

already getting wildfire smoke enhanced sunsets and it's only May 8th.  This summer is going to be wild and horrifying.

[CheeselandSkies]

4,000 j/kg of CAPE on May 10th and all we can manage is a slight risk cap bust.

[bowtie`]

14 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said:

4,000 j/kg of CAPE on May 10th and all we can manage is a slight risk cap bust.

Texas stole your thunder.

[frostfern]

17 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said:

4,000 j/kg of CAPE on May 10th and all we can manage is a slight risk cap bust.

These high amplitude blocky synoptic patterns never trigger good convection east of the Mississippi.  The big pool of CAPE will probably retrograde northwest into Minnesota later in the week and all the severe will be there.  Useless pattern.

[frostfern]

29 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said:

4,000 j/kg of CAPE on May 10th and all we can manage is a slight risk cap bust.

Should have known better than to trust models showing an MCS charging straight through a death ridge.  The thing of interest here in West Michigan is the heat and humidity might overperform tomorrow.  The weak backdoor cool front that was shown in the Euro isn’t really materializing.  Due south wind usually means no lake influence here, unless there’s enough convergence to trigger some afternoon popups.  

[Baum]

one of my pet peeves:

SATURDAY NIGHT  
MOSTLY CLEAR WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE  
EVENING,

FRIDAY  
MOSTLY SUNNY. A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.

can it shower from a clear sky?