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April Pattern/obs thread.


weathafella
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Nice 16 bump over climo at the end of the MEX machine #s is pretty impressive ...

 KFIT   GFSX MOS GUIDANCE   4/06/2022  0000 UTC                       
 FHR  24| 36  48| 60  72| 84  96|108 120|132 144|156 168|180 192      
 WED  06| THU 07| FRI 08| SAT 09| SUN 10| MON 11| TUE 12| WED 13 CLIMO
 X/N  53| 38  55| 40  57| 43  56| 37  56| 34  59| 36  65| 49  70 33 54
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Also, Monday could be a gem day.   Even though those annoying blue lines on the hydrostatic charts are still meandering thru...  it's like Scott said a couple weeks ago.  At this time of year, we can push 62 under 534 thickness when under an unabated sun that's just dumping rads into the environment.  With wind veering west during the day, likely goes above MOS which is 59 at KFIT/KASH/KBED already. 

Still not convinced we get through mid week unscathed by BD.    That flow is unconvincingly otherwise.  The ridge is likely real ..but it's too pancaked.  And the non-hydrostatic heights are not exceptionally tall... The flow is fast over top and just begging for a confluence to ripple through Ontario.  Last couple runs of GFS/Euro are benefiting from merely not seeing anything there but that's real precarious.  

I've seen this too many times in the past, and the warmest day ends up being like Monday, and then Tuesday gets interrupted...  Then when it was originally supposed to really get warm on Wednesday, 42 from NYC up drinking a big cup of bust "whine". 

 

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4 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Probably not. We beat your guys a lot in the spring. Scooter rage.

You're right...that's more for the summer when I leave here and it's 78 and sunny only to have self destructive CU with temps in the 60s and a brisk wind there.

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1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

You're right...that's more for the summer when I leave here and it's 78 and sunny only to have self destructive CU with temps in the 60s and a brisk wind there.

I don't think I've had a brisk wind with 60s here in the summer since 2007. We do 60F and drizzle well though.

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10 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Kidding aside. It's not like it's that nice up here today. Lots of morning sun, but clouds now and mid 50s.

I was just happy we avoided the rain since we have plenty of it coming tomorrow night. Wasn't rubbing anything in. lol

Congrats.

image.png.6e9447f1fd1f3eb06e24f78d6bffd964.png

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4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It's not as bad as VT at least. No offense to the good people who live there. :) 

The next couple months are when SLK-MVL-BML can shine north west of the Marine Mank.  Days like today with super dry air and warmth.  I feel like April/May and even June in recent years have really amplified the over-the-top mild days.

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Just now, powderfreak said:

The next couple months are when SLK-MVL-BML can shine north west of the Marine Mank.  Days like today with super dry air and warmth.  I feel like April/May and even June in recent years have really amplified the over-the-top mild days.

It's the Phin effect. 

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6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It's the Phin effect. 

Haha, I will say I don’t share the hatred of springtime like you guys do.  It can be a really nice season up here.

On an aside, the 2PM dew point at CAR was 3F.  That’s wild.  Red flag air mass.

The RH map shows todays “winners.”

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