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April Pattern/obs thread.


weathafella
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I credit the state of the art of the technology in modeling to be so petty detailed in mangling the surface PP around BD presentation from 7 days away the way all models are for next week's warm head "fake" - we'll see on the later.

That's pretty good.   When I was coming of Met age in the 1990's, ...no model had much of any clue about those sort of no warm or fun for you features at all.  They only saw the larger synoptic ridge.

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06z GFS might be a little less coherent with BDFs but  ...  again, our climate begs the caveat emptor - man... you assume any 70 to 80 ridge housing opportunity ends up not an opportunity, excluding everywhere NE of NYC( and no snow either. give that up).    

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The other aspect I am noticing is ...well two-fold.   One, this has moved up in time.  It's not been temporal-stable in the guidance. It was supposed to be ~ the 15th through the 20th ( the end uncertain...)... Now it's more like the 13th through the 16th - so it has also shrunk.   This overall trend to me suggests the models are attempting to morph this into just a warm sector given time.  It is all still 7+ days away...

Two, the models are also speeding up the hemisphere a little bit.  Not as much so as January, no, but as that extended range has come from D11-15 to D7 to 11 ... the flow is trying to add progressive behavior.    That's probably why this has moved closer in time by a couple three days, but it tells me that we are not really ready to surge out of winter into a deep spring - I was thinking that may occur with this thing, but my confidence on that being the case is a bit rattled based on these observations.

Again...it's a week+ away ... The the models will wax and wane in allowing seasonality into the runs.

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1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

I’m not sure, but I don’t radiate. 37 here this morning. My guess is we’ll probably sneak another after next week. My hood is definitely a local anomaly though. 

The cold is basically done. Nature gave us hints with the AN Morch and early greenup /etc.  Mowings are starting over the next week or two.. flowers and shrubs well ahead. Look at signals provided by Mother Nature .. 

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18 hours ago, The 4 Seasons said:

Miracles can still happen. We did have a nice inland/elevated snow storm this time last season. The NE hills to ORH jackpotted.

3335prateptype_cat.conus.thumb.png.b04c4e3322d590dfafced812c01118d6.png335sn10_acc.conus.thumb.png.6f01af554470561d62fa756b4545a168.png

4/16/21

04.15-16.21_jdj_snowfall_totals.thumb.jpg.9c76590b62a3d201cc1668ddb6d39510.jpganimate.gif.09efabadc397ed569937f6513fc9284e.gif.2e8c45c9298246f372c973c21b158e00.gif

As noted on the loop, we were right on the rain/snow line and stayed there thru most of the storm - 1.11" LE, 1.4" SN.  Blecch.  (But likely more snow than we see this April.)

Down to scattered patches, and here the wood frog "quacks" are heard a week or 2 before peepers.  A couple upper 50s days and the frogs may sound off.

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1 hour ago, ma blizzard said:

^ got me looking at some of the first / last dates on the BOX climate page .. how about this for latest 33 on record: 

69227781_ScreenShot2022-04-05at9_52_02AM.png.29088d677c2fc7b5e7f914ede242756e.png

Must have been quite the airmass to radiate like that 4 days before the solstice 

 

CON had 36F that day. 1926 has record low mins at ORH on 6/20 and 21 too. Also lots of top 3s right into July. Maybe an unshielded thermo that year?

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8 minutes ago, dendrite said:

CON had 36F that day. 1926 has record low mins at ORH on 6/20 and 21 too. Also lots of top 3s right into July. Maybe an unshielded thermo that year?

It may be right though. The 1926 had quite a few cP days. 6/17 up here had a low of 33F and 6/20 had 31F (Franklin COOP).

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2 minutes ago, tunafish said:

Right on time for me, 3/31 was the first observed peeper this year.

For 3 of the last 5 years, peepers have first sang on March 31, with 4/5/20 & 3/24/21 being the other two years. 

They were a week early here at most but first - second week of April is usually when I expect them in Greenfield.

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