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April Pattern/obs thread.

weathafella

By weathafella,
in New England

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alex
alex

A white Easter again! This time, barely though. Happy Easter!

ORH_wxman
ORH_wxman

Just got smoked with hail  

OceanStWx
OceanStWx

I do love the transition seasons for Kevin. 

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OceanStWx

OceanStWx

Posted
Posted
12 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I wonder ...  what were the hydrostatic heights at those times ?  

Suppose it were 576 dam, which is pretty fantastic for 42 or so N, such as Iowa's latitude, no doubt!   It seems to me, here in New England a 572 dam is a typical co-metric when/if the temperature makes the early 90s, and that's typically a DP of 65-ish.   I wonder if there is more typical 500 mb to surface hydrostatic depth that is in place - like an average graph.  

I'm integrating a science method with a question, and should just ask the question:   are those 80 DP well mixed?  

The problem is, the geography out there is bit unique with human presence and activities.    Cooking farmed land with fairly evolve hyrdo tech keeping the surface soils moist ( corn is biggie! ) may artificially inflate those DPs ... prior to a well/better mixing.  

Typically when 'big heat' evolves out there, there is a capping mid level ridge...and by construct circumstance ...that means lighter winds.  So theta-e pooling ...maybe just within 500 feet of the ground too - I wonder if that get's carried down stream by a light wind field ..20 ...30 or even 50 miles, then a miasma wafts passed these station sites.  

Maybe a scatter plot would suggest that if an 80+ DP is being measured, and it exceeds the "typical" 500 mb hydrostatic depth, it's not "synoptically" legit. 

2008080500.74455.skewt.parc.gif

I think this is a fairly typical look. EML capping deep mixing, but the boundary layer is still mixed beneath it. And I was wrong, the sonde sampled 88/79 when I launched, while the in office display was 88/80 when we headed out. For some reason 84 for temps stuck in my head.

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jbenedet

jbenedet

Posted
Posted

It’s been pretty damn awful and continues. The persistent dryness (not rainfall, but air masses) is also stunting all plant growth—especially in the garden beds. Hands still cracking as if it’s winter. Sucks.

I’d much rather more rain and clouds if it came with high humidity and full green up.

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RUNNAWAYICEBERG

RUNNAWAYICEBERG

Posted
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On 4/19/2022 at 3:55 PM, CoastalWx said:

Long range looks like ass.

 

On 4/19/2022 at 4:32 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

Ryan’s got 60’s in CT all next week on 10 day. Looks fine . It’s not a super warm or hot pattern, but it’s nice overall 

 

On 4/19/2022 at 7:48 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

He’s not getting 60s from tue night onward with that offshore low. He’ll be lucky to tickle 50 here and there.

 

On 4/19/2022 at 8:14 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

We’ll take Hammerhan over this forecast 

 

On 4/19/2022 at 8:42 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Hammer in trouble if offshore low spins nw flow tue-fri. He’ll adjust though if the signal gets louder heading into the weekend.

 

On 4/20/2022 at 2:53 PM, CoastalWx said:

It’s ok out. Could be warmer. 
 

Euro next week. :yikes:

 

On 4/20/2022 at 3:04 PM, CT Rain said:

What a nightmare that is. 

 

On 4/21/2022 at 8:44 AM, CoastalWx said:

Man pattern blows going forward.

 

On 4/21/2022 at 2:59 PM, ORH_wxman said:

Nice hideous cutoff later next week....at least we might stay on the southwest side of it, so it will just be merely annoying rather than disastrous like a May 2005 deal.

 

On 4/21/2022 at 5:26 PM, CoastalWx said:

Still looks like ass next week. 

 

On 4/21/2022 at 5:31 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

GwDLT 

 

On 4/21/2022 at 5:54 PM, CoastalWx said:

You do 

 

On 4/22/2022 at 5:34 PM, CoastalWx said:

Loop the euro. After rains it’s self destructive ULL. Nobody said 40 and drizzle but I think it sucks.

 

On 4/22/2022 at 5:38 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

Well it’s not ideal, but it’s far better than what was being tossed around on here with rains and cold for a week. Now it’s like a few showers Tuesday night. Ryan has sun Wed- onward 

 

On 4/22/2022 at 5:40 PM, CT Rain said:

Yeah I have partly/mostly cloudy and low 50s. Not great.

 

21 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

They said  it for yesterday and all week other than today :lol:

 

20 hours ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

They did not. Hows that widespread 60s and 70s forecast for the second half of the week coming along?


 

AA0747B1-74DD-4DFF-AA22-985982BB8E5C.png

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
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1 hour ago, SouthCoastMA said:

I thought the Euro looked good next week - meaning warmer 

It did ... 'been noticing the last couple of days ( actually), that the Euro really doesn't look too bad - actually after 4.  That's not a long wait, really.  

We actually could get really lucky with that spring cut-off gyre that sets up S of NS.  It's trended E just enough ( thank you very much...) compared to the original idea where it anchored on Cape Cod until your kids graduate...  Being on the western edge of the circulation, we may just get sun through high clouds and a D-slope flow to offset the chilly 850s.   I mean it's not fantastic - but it's a whole 'nother universe to being 44 in mist. 

Then after there's a bit of a paradigm shift - albeit subtle, still enough that the 850 mb 0C "asshole"therm finally retreats N to the border with southern Canadian. The Euro rolls out some 10+C 850 mb plumes within that as anyone can plainly see but if any day under sun this high and hot will send our temps where we have not been yet this year - day's 6 thru 10 of that 00z run. 

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted
12 hours ago, OceanStWx said:

2008080500.74455.skewt.parc.gif

I think this is a fairly typical look. EML capping deep mixing, but the boundary layer is still mixed beneath it. And I was wrong, the sonde sampled 88/79 when I launched, while the in office display was 88/80 when we headed out. For some reason 84 for temps stuck in my head.

I guess that's the best we can do.  If there were/are very low conditionally forced, elevated of DP air layers their likely too finite to be picked up by the sounding resolution above.    

As far as the thickness though - whoa!   581.1   ... You mentioned well mixed. I still wonder if modern industrial farming/hydro practices make those lofty hgts more common than pre eras.   You know, in the summer I pay attention to thickness over DCA/NYC/BOS ...I've noticed over the years, that incidences of 580 are less common than they are out there.  interesting .   We can put up 577's with 101/78 diurnal spreads ...it's not a hard ceiling but it seems to press right around there and gets difficult - although in recent summers beginning 2016, I have seen more 580 on NAM grids. But it seems right around there we start sacrificing T's in lieu of TD

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

Posted
Posted
45 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

It did ... 'been noticing the last couple of days ( actually), that the Euro really doesn't look too bad - actually after 4.  That's not a long wait, really.  

We actually could get really lucky with that spring cut-off gyre that sets up S of NS.  It's trended E just enough ( thank you very much...) compared to the original idea where it anchored on Cape Cod until your kids graduate...  Being on the western edge of the circulation, we may just get sun through high clouds and a D-slope flow to offset the chilly 850s.   I mean it's not fantastic - but it's a whole 'nother universe to being 44 in mist. 

Then after there's a bit of a paradigm shift - albeit subtle, still enough that the 850 mb 0C "asshole"therm finally retreats N to the border with southern Canadian. The Euro rolls out some 10+C 850 mb plumes within that as anyone can plainly see but if any day under sun this high and hot will send our temps where we have not been yet this year - day's 6 thru 10 of that 00z run. 

We tried to tell ‘em. Rain rrhea of wheel for a week plus . Those guys’ forecasts didn’t work out too hot

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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39 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Gfs keeps signaling more of the same next week and into our birthdays but let’s just believe in spring unicorns instead. 

There are differences tho ...  They may not leap out at the observer, but the 540 dam thicknesses retreats for the most part, N of the border with Canada... Other than very brief incursion over small CAA jet regions that don't even last the diurnal sun attempt to knive briefly in.  That's basically taking over after the cut off vortex is finished claiming another New England climo week.   

That canvas would send any clear days to 70 at this point in the year.   GFS doesn't like clear days but it's likely full of shit with all those bowling balls in 4 days or whatever invented crap it's doing to keep it cold despite warming in all directions -

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