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April Pattern/obs thread.


weathafella
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2 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

By what metric ?  - I'm not sure that is true.   The average high is 63 right now ...averaging most/et al.  

So +12 is a couple standard deviations above normal, which by convention of statistical inference means it is relatively rare ... 

Not sure that is consistent with over due, considering recent spring spanning the last decade. There have in fact been an unusually large number of them hosting +2 to even 4 SD warm departures.  And it has been at or close to mid 70s on to two separate occasions in the last 45 days -

We're def running a bit late on first 75F+ this season despite the AN April....avg first date of 75F+ at various ASOS stations that have NOT hit 75F yet this season:

 

BED: 4/14

BAF: 4/10

FIT: 4/8

OWD: 4/9

ORH: 4/26 (random stat.....ORH hasn't hit 75F prior to May since 2017)

BOS: 4/19

PVD: 4/22

 

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22 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

We're def running a bit late on first 75F+ this season despite the AN April....avg first date of 75F+ at various ASOS stations that have NOT hit 75F yet this season:

 

BED: 4/14

BAF: 4/10

FIT: 4/8

OWD: 4/9

ORH: 4/26 (random stat.....ORH hasn't hit 75F prior to May since 2017)

BOS: 4/19

PVD: 4/22

 

Mm ... in spirit?   no ... by hard anal retentive focus on the number 75, okay -

It has already been 70+ at many of those stations in that list, since February 15th. 

Part of this/that course of discussion may be on me - I gathered an 'impression' over  ... Iowa(however it's spelled -)'s post that we must be lacking warmth.  That may not have been the correct "intent" of what he/she was after when he/she made the statement, but I had a moment to think about it and thought ...no. This is just a cool pattern. Let's not throw hands by over stating it's significance.   

Nothing's changed since March 31:    April is a piece of shit month and we simply experience why.   Some very very rare years, that is less apt the description. Like, 1976 ... 2002... maybe 2009?   whatever.  But this - to me - comes off as a typical dildo April behavior.   Like you said, it's AN?  Some subjectivity too,  I don't think not being 75 (yet) is very significant in and of its self - comes off as luck.   If the whole month was ABN, then it has more gravity.

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1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Mm ... in spirit?   no ... by hard anal retentive focus on the number 75, okay -

It has already been 70+ at many of those stations in that list, since February 15th. 

Part of this/that course of discussion may be on me - I gathered an 'impression' over  ... Iowa(however it's spelled -)'s post that we must be lacking warmth.  That may not have been the correct "intent" of what he/she was after when he/she made the statement, but I had a moment to think about it and thought ...no. This is just a cool pattern. Let's not throw hands by over state it's significance.   

Nothing's changed since March 31:    April is a piece of shit month and we simply experience why.   Some very very rare years, that is less apt the description. Like, 1976 ... 2002... maybe 2009?   whatever.  But this - to me - comes off as a typical dildo April behavior.   Like you said, it's AN?  Some subjectivity too,  I don't think not being 75 (yet) is very significant in and of its self - comes off as luck.   If the whole month was ABN, then it has more gravity.

75F is semi-arbitrary, but it's hard to not achieve that temp when the month is above normal. IT's a decent number for April.....70F in March is a similar benchmark or 65F in February.

Just speaks to how we did it in April 2022....most of the warmth this april was front-loaded where a 60-65F high on April 2nd produces a solid positive departure. We've pissed away a chunk of that AN surplus that we banked in the first half of the month...I noticed ORH is down to +1.9 on the month and BDL is down to +1.7....and those will be whittled down further in the final week here. So yeah, it's prob not going to be too far off from typical April dogshit, except we did it in surgical fashion as to avoid the 75+ weather we typically see in the low-elevation sites by month-end.

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13 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

75F is semi-arbitrary, but it's hard to not achieve that temp when the month is above normal. IT's a decent number for April.....70F in March is a similar benchmark or 65F in February.

Just speaks to how we did it in April 2022....most of the warmth this april was front-loaded where a 60-65F high on April 2nd produces a solid positive departure. We've pissed away a chunk of that AN surplus that we banked in the first half of the month...I noticed ORH is down to +1.9 on the month and BDL is down to +1.7....and those will be whittled down further in the final week here. So yeah, it's prob not going to be too far off from typical April dogshit, except we did it in surgical fashion as to avoid the 75+ weather we typically see in the low-elevation sites by month-end.

Through yesterday ORH was +1.2F on the maxes and +2.8F on the mins. So in typical recent warm season fashion we're biased warmer at night as well.

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41 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

We're def running a bit late on first 75F+ this season despite the AN April....avg first date of 75F+ at various ASOS stations that have NOT hit 75F yet this season:

 

BED: 4/14

BAF: 4/10

FIT: 4/8

OWD: 4/9

ORH: 4/26 (random stat.....ORH hasn't hit 75F prior to May since 2017)

BOS: 4/19

PVD: 4/22

 

I'm guessing this month is similar to January 2021, and so many other months amidst the contemporary climate in that we end up above average mainly due to milder nights...although I do recall several legit freezes this month at my spot.

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Just now, dendrite said:

Through yesterday ORH was +1.2F on the maxes and +2.8F on the mins. So in typical recent warm season fashion we're biased warmer at night as well.

 

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'm guessing this month is similar to January 2021, and so many other months amidst the contemporary climate in that we end up above average mainly due to milder nights...although I do recall several legit freezes this month at my spot.

Yep.

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Just now, dendrite said:

Through yesterday ORH was +1.2F on the maxes and +2.8F on the mins. So in typical recent warm season fashion we're biased warmer at night as well.

Yeah and that's not too surprising given that this month has been wet too...at least until very recently.

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1 hour ago, weathafella said:

I told you guys months ago, close the shades until Father’s Day for legit summer wx.   With that said, it isn’t bad out.    We’ve had far worse on these dates.

It's all subjective, of course... but, "I" ( and probably there are others that share in this opinion - ) could care less about achieving legit summer weather. As in proper 85/62 ?  - not sure many think that's part of any expectation now, anyway.

I/we just want more than a single day where it lolly pops to 73, only to face-smack the next day at 52 F in sun showers mixed with graupel.   

Like a week of even 70/50 with partly sunny nape splashing....  Problem is, we're less likely to get even that merciful reach-around in April, either. It just takes and takes, a circumstance made interminably more frustrating by the fact that we're all of 13 days from the perennial entry date into the solar MAXimum. On May 8. 

"April is the cruelest month," I guess.

 

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2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I'd be willing to wonder if y'all aren't getting a kind of over-top effect from this sort of synoptic layout...

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/sfc/90fwbg.gif

Yeah absolutely.  It’s 75F at MSS in N.NY as warmth streams northward between that High along the coast and the Low up near James Bay.

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2 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

It's all subjective, of course... but, "I" ( and probably there are others that share in this opinion - ) could care less about achieving legit summer weather. As in proper 85/62 ?  - not sure many think that's part of any expectation now, anyway.

I/we just want more than a single day where it lolly pops to 73, only to face-smack the next day at 52 F in sun showers mixed with graupel.   

Like a week of even 70/50 with partly sunny nape splashing....  Problem is, we're less likely to get even that merciful reach-around in April, either. It just takes and takes, a circumstance made interminably more frustrating by the fact that we're all of 13 days from the perennial entry date into the solar MAXimum. On May 8. 

"April is the cruelest month," I guess.

 

Agree.    April true to form.   Hopefully May does better but honestly I can almost feel the change even now.   Foliage coming out and it almost appears we’re off to the races.  Took a 6 mile walk last night and had to shed my light jacket over sweater.

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7 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

By what metric ?  - I'm not sure that is true.   The average high is 63 right now ...averaging most/et al.  

So +12 is a couple standard deviations above normal, which by convention of statistical inference means it is relatively rare ... 

Not sure that is consistent with over due, considering recent spring spanning the last decade. There have in fact been an unusually large number of them hosting +2 to even 4 SD warm departures.  And it has been at or close to mid 70s on to two separate occasions in the last 45 days -

Memory is a funky thing I am sure about it, so my memories may be warped.

But to me, May is the first month where I can reliably expect warm and nice days to be a rule rather than an exception. Right now is late April, and winter seemed to be a long thing that was slow to leave. So when I hit up the NWS website and see that every day for the upcoming week is slated to be around 60 degrees plus or minus a few, it makes me pizzed off and makes me feel like we are being haunted by unseasonably cool weather that is overstaying it’s welcome.

To me, May is the start of “mostly summer”. By this time I am expecting 70 degree days all the time, with a few nasty ones peppered in between so I am always disappointed when each day on the forecast said “high of 58” or something like that. I mean 58? What am I supposed to do with that?
 

I shan’t assert that my idea is ultimately accurate, but it’s not surprising if I am jumping the gun on summer time.

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Today is good to be fair, though - per my subjective take.  Yeah, could use it maybe 10 warmer, but it tapped 63 when the sun cut through the high milk ceilings.  And with light winds barely noticeable under that, it was fine.

It will not be that way mid week through late Friday ... Bitch then -

Afterward, using the Euro - if one dares - it didn't look too bad to me after D5.  Having the vortex in that position over the weekend could end up being surprisingly nice here, with tendencies for d-slope flow.  If the ceilings allow some sun through .. No 70s tho.

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31 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Today is good to be fair, though - per my subjective take.  Yeah, could use it maybe 10 warmer, but it tapped 63 when the sun cut through the high milk ceilings.  And with light winds barely noticeable under that, it was fine.

It will not be that way mid week through late Friday ... Bitch then -

Afterward, using the Euro - if one dares - it didn't look too bad to me after D5.  Having the vortex in that position over the weekend could end up being surprisingly nice here, with tendencies for d-slope flow.  If the ceilings allow some sun through .. No 70s tho.

Saturday is mid 60’s and Sunday onward is 65-75 depending on location. We have had top 10 spring overall 

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Chilly late week on the zone forecast.

Wednesday Night...Snow showers likely. Light snow accumulation possible. Lows in the upper 20s. Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph. Chance of snow 70 percent.

Thursday...Snow showers likely. Additional light snow accumulation possible. Highs in the lower 40s. Chance of snow 70 percent.

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 337 PM EDT Monday...Forecast remains on track for Wednesday and Thursday to be the worst weather days of the week as the core of an anonymously cold closed upper low (-30C at 500mb) moves over the region. After a dry start to the day, we should see numerous valley rain and mountain snow showers develop by Wednesday afternoon across the entire region and continue through much of the overnight across central/northeast Vermont with snow levels dropping to the valley floor by midnight.

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