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April Pattern/obs thread.


weathafella
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15 hours ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

West was best today. The mid-afternoon through evening were gorgeous.
Still 53° off a high of 62°

Just got back to Stowe from Long Island… nicest weather was LI this morning and then from your area of I-91 up through VT and this area actually was warmest.  Saw some 63-64F temps up north here on car thermometer and full sun.

Was funny to see highway signs of towns in western CT that many on here live in, ha.  Not much green outside of LI. Merritt Parkway area wasn’t leafed out by any means.  Still seemed largely stick season but some flowers and ground color about.

Also learned people down there think of NH as New Hampshire not New Haven. Based on a poster’s comments here in the past I always wondered if that was a CT thing.  They just thought I was still drunk from the wedding.

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This can be an awkward time of year. I consider the border between gorgeous and subprime to be 68 degrees, and it has to be sunny. That line in the sand is my reference point for my below discussion.

The thing is, summer-like warmth is very likely to be showing up by May 5 or so….. so it’s a situation where we are just so close, but April is still being April on years like this and the cooler momentum leftover from winter is just not quite ready to just give up the ghost. Only days, even hours away, we are so close.

While there have been years when I’ve lived near the 40th parallel where we have had really cool May weather, or even snow, that is really rare and if it does happen it only lasts for a day and a half. Summer’s force takes over almost guaranteed by the third week of May

The week ahead on the forecast is nasty, frankly, all the way through the forecast period. but I don’t see it that that is a guarantee it will ACTUALLY still be 60 when we get to May 1. Major pattern changes often slip in unexpectedly in the middle of the forecast period, almost like it’s bubbling up from under the surface, meaning we don’t always have to wait out an entire forecast period of nastiness just because it says we will right now. And, around the end of the forecast period is when I get to get a G gauge hobby grade train set perhaps.

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1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

Just got back to Stowe from Long Island… nicest weather was LI this morning and then from your area of I-91 up VT and this area actually was warmest.  Saw some 63-64F temps up north here on car thermometer and full sun.

Was funny to see highway signs of towns in western CT that many on here live in, ha.  Not much green outside of LI. Merritt Parkway area wasn’t leafed out by any means.  Still seemed largely stick season but some flowers and ground color about.

Also learned people down there think of NH as New Hampshire not New Haven. Based on a poster’s comments here in the past I always wondered if year was a CT thing.  They just thought I was still drunk from the wedding.

If I remember correctly, that was North Haven. 

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25 minutes ago, IowaStorm05 said:

This can be an awkward time of year. I consider the border between gorgeous and subprime to be 68 degrees, and it has to be sunny. That line in the sand is my reference point for my below discussion.

The thing is, summer-like warmth is very likely to be showing up by May 5 or so….. so it’s a situation where we are just so close, but April is still being April on years like this and the cooler momentum leftover from winter is just not quite ready to just give up the ghost. Only days, even hours away, we are so close.

While there have been years when I’ve lived near the 40th parallel where we have had really cool May weather, or even snow, that is really rare and if it does happen it only lasts for a day and a half. Summer’s force takes over almost guaranteed by the third week of May

The week ahead on the forecast is nasty, frankly, all the way through the forecast period. but I don’t see it that that is a guarantee it will ACTUALLY still be 60 when we get to May 1. Major pattern changes often slip in unexpectedly in the middle of the forecast period, almost like it’s bubbling up from under the surface, meaning we don’t always have to wait out an entire forecast period of nastiness just because it says we will right now. And, around the end of the forecast period is when I get to get a G gauge hobby grade train set perhaps.

Hopefully everyone can experience a real Iowa summer with truly spectacular dews.

I have family on the Iowa/Missouri border and was there last July for this special stretch.... 

 

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1 hour ago, BrianW said:

Hopefully everyone can experience a real Iowa summer with truly spectacular dews.

I have family on the Iowa/Missouri border and was there last July for this special stretch.... 

 

Some of those AWOSs I find a little suspect sometimes, but my first day on shift at DVN the ASOS was 84/80 when I went up to launch the balloon. So much moisture in the air that it condenses right on you when you leave the office AC.

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2 hours ago, kdxken said:

https://mobile.twitter.com/NWSBoston/status/1518396495644422144

 

So S NE would you trade less winter snow for more dew points in the 70s. Or no summer time dew points in the 70s but 50 percent more winter snows?

 

I've gotten over snow, I really have. You don't have to shovel dew. I'll take the summer conditions please. 

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Mostly sunny, 54 and climbing.  Ran my irrigation yesterday to give everything a drink.

 

I've had solar on my house for 10 years and I'm going to break my record for April production today.  That's kind of nuts considering there are 5 more days in the month.  April is easily my most hated weather month, but it's really not been too bad here in SEMA

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13 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Your avg last freeze there that close to the water and a bit up on a hill must be no later than mid-April, no?

Probably yeah. Although this year the last freeze was earlier than many years. I tickled 32 earlier in the month. But to the radiational cooling part, the guy in Hingham even closer to the water, got to 27. There is always a breeze here. 
I’m just stirring the pot a bit with that comment. Lol. 

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12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Probably yeah. Although this year the last freeze was earlier than many years. I tickled 32 earlier in the month. But to the radiational cooling part, the guy in Hingham even closer to the water, got to 27. There is always a breeze here. 
I’m just stirring the pot a bit with that comment. Lol. 

Yeah rad pits near the water are actually sometimes better for late freezes with that sandy soil...look at MVY.

MVY average last freeze is 5/11 while ORH is 4/24.

 

But if you lack radiational cooling near the water, you are going to be really early (like I think KBOS is something like 4/5 or 4/6)

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14 hours ago, IowaStorm05 said:

It’s below normal temperatures on a chronic wavelength. It could be worse, but we are way overdue for 75 degrees.

By what metric ?  - I'm not sure that is true.   The average high is 63 right now ...averaging most/et al.  

So +12 is a couple standard deviations above normal, which by convention of statistical inference means it is relatively rare ... 

Not sure that is consistent with over due, considering recent spring spanning the last decade. There have in fact been an unusually large number of them hosting +2 to even 4 SD warm departures.  And it has been at or close to mid 70s on to two separate occasions in the last 45 days -

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11 hours ago, OceanStWx said:

Some of those AWOSs I find a little suspect sometimes, but my first day on shift at DVN the ASOS was 84/80 when I went up to launch the balloon. So much moisture in the air that it condenses right on you when you leave the office AC.

I wonder ...  what were the hydrostatic heights at those times ?  

Suppose it were 576 dam, which is pretty fantastic for 42 or so N, such as Iowa's latitude, no doubt!   It seems to me, here in New England a 572 dam is a typical co-metric when/if the temperature makes the early 90s, and that's typically a DP of 65-ish.   I wonder if there is more typical 500 mb to surface hydrostatic depth that is in place - like an average graph.  

I'm integrating a science method with a question, and should just ask the question:   are those 80 DP well mixed?  

The problem is, the geography out there is bit unique with human presence and activities.    Cooking farmed land with fairly evolve hyrdo tech keeping the surface soils moist ( corn is biggie! ) may artificially inflate those DPs ... prior to a well/better mixing.  

Typically when 'big heat' evolves out there, there is a capping mid level ridge...and by construct circumstance ...that means lighter winds.  So theta-e pooling ...maybe just within 500 feet of the ground too - I wonder if that get's carried down stream by a light wind field ..20 ...30 or even 50 miles, then a miasma wafts passed these station sites.  

Maybe a scatter plot would suggest that if an 80+ DP is being measured, and it exceeds the "typical" 500 mb hydrostatic depth, it's not "synoptically" legit. 

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