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April Pattern/obs thread.


weathafella
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This is a beautiful radar at 26F on the top of the mountain.

Upslope flow is just crushing the ski area right now.  That stuff is all getting pushed and deposited downstream, having a large area of 30-35dbz firing up like that and hitting the county line means the ski area is seeing some healthy precipitation rates.

That's the textbook look... with more moisture continually feeding into the upslope band.  Standing wave getting fed!

598775602_April1910pm.gif.64099a3ef2c2acc0343dda4ed670d292.gif

11" increase in Snow Depth today at the Mansfield Stake.  It's been a fun past few weeks for the N.Greens... some good events.

Storm above 3,000ft likely ends up 8-15".

278567926_8124620234230058_1848441932259

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1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Resorts are shutting down and Freak in an excitable posting frenzy like Ginx in a Minot , ND blizzard 

I don’t blame him. A foot of powder with nobody there. It’s like Ginxy on a day where all dogs poop in the woods and not on the driveway. Just pure euphoria.

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1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

I don’t think PF has been this excited all winter. On 4/19. 

It’s the storm you dream of in early December.  It was 8-10 of pure cement followed by the classic overnight dumping of fake snow.  We would have still been skiing on that base if it was in December.  We picked up another 6 at 1800’ for a storm total of 12-14, which is settling down to about 10 right now, but above 3000’ there has to be close to 18.  Can’t get to it right now because of wind tho.  With an empty resort in a mediocre winter, it’s a nice last hurrah here.

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3 minutes ago, bwt3650 said:

It’s the storm you dream of in early December.  It was 8-10 of pure cement followed by the classic overnight dumping of fake snow.  We would have still been skiing on that base if it was in December.  We picked up another 6 at 1800’ for a storm total of 12-14, which is settling down to about 10 right now, but above 3000’ there has to be close to 18.  Can’t get to it right now because of wind tho.  With an empty resort in a mediocre winter, it’s a nice last hurrah here.

Yep, sweet grand finale for a couple spots in the Northern Greens. The places are all shut down over here and have been for some time so even if it had fallen, it would be hard to get at it. 

Bring on spring! This has been a long mud season.

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48 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Looks like the big cutoff on euro got delayed at 0z. More towards end of week instead of midweek.

there's two through D10, tho -

In fact, there may be a procession of 'em thru week 2.

It's complex ..but subtle change in the total hemispheric circulation mode, from the central Pac, all the way around to Greenland ... is likely to trigger a -NAO eruption.  At first it is over the eastern limb of the NAO domain, which is probably why the first closed low that rattles around underneath it...ends up out along  60 W... Just far enough E, we are spared a gruesome Saturday.   Then, blocking is retrogrades over a painfully slow 7 day period, ending up over the west limb/Davis Straight...  That induces the next stranded wave to rattle around 70 W - the one is the one you're seeing for later next week.  But there are in fact, two over the 10 days. 

The models have been picking up on that total behavior, ens and operational version, for a week - it's likely to happen.   'Sides, as I've opined ( when not bitching about it...) it fits an emerging persistence about springs in general over the last decade, to observe late blocking. 

Whatever happens, the -NAO is likely to occur and f-up any chance for real pithy warmth.  Both the GEFs and EPS ... garland the 70 N region with tendencies for positive height anomalies, while tendency for lower along 40 N, over our side of the hemisphere... right through the first week of May.  During that time, the 'correction vector' is pointed at the rhea end of the spectrum.   Doesn't mean it will be that way all the time, just that in any situation where the indications look 50/50 ... put money down on the shit side.

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18 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

there's two through D10, tho -

In fact, there may be a procession of 'em thru week 2.

It's complex ..but subtle change in the total hemispheric circulation mode, from the central Pac, all the way around to Greenland ... is likely to trigger a -NAO eruption.  At first it is over the eastern limb of the NAO domain, which is probably why the first closed low that rattles around underneath it...ends up out along  60 W... Just far enough E, we are spared a gruesome Saturday.   Then, blocking is retrogrades over a painfully slow 7 day period, ending up over the west limb/Davis Straight...  That induces the next stranded wave to rattle around 70 W - the one is the one you're seeing for later next week.  But there are in fact, two over the 10 days. 

The models have been picking up on that total behavior, ens and operational version, for a week - it's likely to happen.   'Sides, as I've opined ( when not bitching about it...) it fits an emerging persistence about springs in general over the last decade, to observe late blocking. 

Whatever happens, the -NAO is likely to occur and f-up any chance for real pithy warmth.  Both the GEFs and EPS ... garland the 70 N region with tendencies for positive height anomalies, while tendency for lower along 40 N, over our side of the hemisphere... right through the first week of May.  During that time, the 'correction vector' is pointed at the rhea end of the spectrum.   Doesn't mean it will be that way all the time, just that in any situation where the indications look 50/50 ... put money down on the shit side.

Betting on shit in SNE weather outcomes is a positive EV money maker.

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