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April Pattern/obs thread.


weathafella
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16 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Actually maybe I did on the 3rd briefly. But overall mild month.

The rain has been kind of annoying this month but we’re lucky it hasn’t come with below normal temps. We put up a couple brutal aprils recently (I think one of them was a -5? Lol) so I’ll take a warm one even if it’s a little wet. 
 

It would be nice to grab a nice Stein period though. 

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9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The rain has been kind of annoying this month but we’re lucky it hasn’t come with below normal temps. We put up a couple brutal aprils recently (I think one of them was a -5? Lol) so I’ll take a warm one even if it’s a little wet. 
 

It would be nice to grab a nice Stein period though. 

Can we time that with school vacation week? Lol. 

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46 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The rain has been kind of annoying this month but we’re lucky it hasn’t come with below normal temps. We put up a couple brutal aprils recently (I think one of them was a -5? Lol) so I’ll take a warm one even if it’s a little wet. 
 

It would be nice to grab a nice Stein period though. 

Recorded RA on 6 straight days, though yesterday's ended shortly after midnight.  Precip/temp both AN so far and tomorrow may push precip above the 4.10" average for all of April.  Yesterday's -3 temp is the only BN greater than -0.5° this month.  The 14 AN days included none greater than +8.  Working on 2nd straight month of meh wx.

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probably not gonna be taken very seriously .. .but this month's behavior - to me - smacks like a global warming month. 

It's basically when the month is normal relative to the direction of delta(climate), perhaps not normal in a linear comparison with Aprils of last century. 

The problem with climate inferential efforts is that term, d(c).   Changing climate means, ...it is mathematically unstable to compare a moving target, against a historic one that was more static.  

It's also why these seasonal outlook efforts ... I fight rolling my eyes, because every year people take from all these linear arguments, 'ENSO was x,y,z in 1954. Because it looks similar in the present day's seasonal climate modeling ...",  etc, the winter forecast gets weighted accordingly.  I don't know if I like that presumption.    But this is also a digression...

All I am saying is, ... experiencing an April that doesn't "feel" above normal even though it is, one that is also dappled with enough rain ( April showers?) ... to be a bit above normal, while no hydro pathways reflect surplussing... all seems like how  climate change hides a normal month. 

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19 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

probably not gonna be taken very seriously .. .but this month's behavior - to me - smacks like a global warming month. 

It's basically when the month is normal relative to the direction of delta(climate), perhaps not normal in a linear comparison with Aprils of last century. 

The problem with climate inferential efforts is that term, d(c).   Changing climate means, ...it is mathematically unstable to compare a moving target, against a historic one that was more static.  

It's also why these seasonal outlook efforts ... I fight rolling my eyes, because every year people take from all these linear arguments, 'ENSO was x,y,z in 1954. Because it looks similar in the present day's seasonal climate modeling ...",  etc, the winter forecast gets weighted accordingly.  I don't know if I like that presumption.    But this is also a digression...

All I am saying is, ... experiencing an April that doesn't "feel" above normal even though it is, one that is also dappled with enough rain ( April showers?) ... to be a bit above normal, while no hydro pathways reflect surplussing... all seems like how  climate change hides a normal month. 

My mom asked me if it's normal to be this cold in April. I just laughed and said we've been above normal overall. People are forgetting what our "normal" climate really is.

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Boy ... warm enthusiasts that understand synoptics must be none-too thrilled by the prospects over next weekend.  Warm front moves bodily to Pennsylvania axis, slams to a halt,

image.png.eae55a0176e30e12223c64209dace065.png

This above (left) is as close as the surface boundary apparently gets, while then watching the warm ridge roll underneath.   If that thing ever got NE of us, we'd be 84 F.  Nope.

It's because of the train wreck in the  N. Atlantic circulation mode. It's a -NAO that is biased over the eastern limb of the domain. ...Technically, that should be enough room to allow the OV ridge to expand in ... maybe even fend off the BD eddy... But the models are cutting off a spring block E of CC like we used to see in the 1980s ..interesting.   Anyway, that vortex gets pinned S NS out there, and that's the ball game.  If that moves out more ...the warm air comes in.  

 

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11 minutes ago, dendrite said:

My mom asked me if it's normal to be this cold in April. I just laughed and said we've been above normal overall. People are forgetting what our "normal" climate really is.

Did people already forget 2020 and 2018?

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27 minutes ago, dendrite said:

My mom asked me if it's normal to be this cold in April. I just laughed and said we've been above normal overall. People are forgetting what our "normal" climate really is.

 - that too, yup 

CC is as much a sociological forcing, as it is forcing species migrations ...pandemics, screwy growing season.  Freak synergistic oven events like the that which took place over Pac/NW last June ... and elsewhere with alarmingly increased frequency over the last 10+ years.  Hell, maybe even eventually here one day.  107 at Logan, 4 days in a row, with lows no lower than 88 F over downtown boulevards of urbania in general. It's not as dire an impact as those latter effects, no ...but part of CC is perception. That's a rabbit hole.

People have less awareness.  We have not had that kind of 'synergistic heatwave' here ... if perhaps yet.   I'm presently bunning myself .. mm hm but ... those hyper heat events are still popping up during the globe's summer hemispheres, like rogue wave phenomenon. 

The other thing ... I wonder if the yawing back and forth into transient nape smacking cold is effecting people's perceptions.  Or if the ballast of 'warmer than normal' is owned by the nocturnal lows, while highs are muted by pancaking and/or rain timing... Then, garnished with those 1.5 day long cold smacks, ... the above normal gets completely invisible.  

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21 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Another nice weekend upcoming. Looking forward to it 

Friday through Sunday...

Broad upper-level ridge establishes itself over the east coast by
late week and hangs there through the weekend. This will support
warm/dry conditions through next weekend.

It depends what is meant by that in the above excerpt.  Warm can be a subjective term...  If the author means, +1 over normal.... ?  Sure, I'd say there is a reasonable chance for that - semantic gaming implies 'warm' in that sense.

But if you're intention in borrowing this statement from a [probably] much larger qualitative analysis is to 'sell' 80 - hehhh...  nope.  There is no way a boundary pinned SW connotes that.  In fact, from this range, that could be like the scaffolding for 50s insert at some point.

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20 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Imagine if we could force climate change to be all in one month. April would be a unanimous vote. 

hahahahaha...  that's f'n hilarious dude.   Like, it's so wrong, climate change. Still ...

I mean, duh. Climate changing faster than species adaptation rates ...eventually would cost humanity a dystopian population correction ( to put it diplomatically...).  Therefore, one should not 'will on' a changing climate.  

So long as the above is all but an unstoppable certainty anyway ... can we please for f-sake dose this piece of shit month with some?

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43 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Another nice weekend upcoming. Looking forward to it 

Friday through Sunday...

Broad upper-level ridge establishes itself over the east coast by
late week and hangs there through the weekend. This will support
warm/dry conditions through next weekend.

You thought yesterday was nice?

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18 minutes ago, kdxken said:

You thought yesterday was nice?

78 to 27 in 2 days here. Nice 51⁰ delta. But ACATT. Seasons in seasons. NAO is going to keep us wheeling back and forth.  Couple nice spring days to couple of typical crap April days. Today was pretty sweet but now clouds encroaching fast. 

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