April Pattern/obs thread.

[Damage In Tolland]

Beers 

 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Beers 

 

Nam drinking. Only way to even get something interesting outside of the shallow graves of 2K VT is to really have this bomb east of the cape. I see a lot of guidance have an inv like feature which pumps in lots of ESE flow ahead of it. Other than maybe an inch of slop to start for the nrn ORH hills, it would Be tough to get more I think.

[ORH_wxman]

Hopefully it keeps trending colder. It’s already doomed to be a dogshit day Tuesday. Might as well get some snow out of it. 
 

My guess is it ends up as mostly a frigid rain though. 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Trend me colder and I’ll find a toothless milf in the monads at 2k

[Damage In Tolland]

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Nam drinking. Only way to even get something interesting outside of the shallow graves of 2K VT is to really have this bomb east of the cape. I see a lot of guidance have an inv like feature which pumps in lots of ESE flow ahead of it. Other than maybe an inch of slop to start for the nrn ORH hills, it would Be tough to get more I think.

The only place that seems likely to see any snow is the N Berks to the bodies . Other than that SE flow way too warm for most .. even ORH hills. Dick Tolleris rule. Screaming SE winds 

[Typhoon Tip]

adding to consternation ... the NAM has a NW bias beyond 48 hours with polarward turning coastal cyclones/synoptic waves in general. 

I've said it a thousand times, but we don't seem to put that into our filters, do we  - soon as any 84 hour NAMs-day-device paints blue ink on a QPF layout, here comes the procession of posts playing bargaining head-games over how it won't happen - LOL... 

To be honest, despite my own proclivity to rail on about the month of 'Anus' ...  I do carry a soft spot for these face smack blue bombs.  If for nothing else, the Schadenfreude ... (wah wah wah) But quite seriously, like Will just said ... not much else going on, but there's another aspect for me.  Which is ... Summer is still coming. No matter what the atmosphere is doing to try and stop or deny celestial mechanics, the power of the summer solstice is going to win.  

Unless Yellowstone erupts or there's a meteor impact... but yeah, who cares.  It's probably going to be close to 80 the week after.   It's really an opportunity to enjoy a winter storm's beauty without any longer termed hang-overs often experienced in mid winter, post event, endless doldrum hell.   The storm is in, it's silver dollar pancake aggregate socks blue tinting the 34F air mass down to 1/4 mile... and the next day, the suns out and the streets and roof eaves have steam dogs curling around each other...  No harm, no foul.    

You know, when I was child in Michigan the farmers referred to that as 'farmer's gold'  it's a nice nitrogen fixing late charge into ground that is not frozen - so it actually gets into the dirt stratum.  Tilling begins as the snow retreats back across the fields.   

[Typhoon Tip]

39 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Trend me colder and I’ll find a toothless milf in the monads at 2k

A curious description ... as the 'i' and the 'l' in that euphemism mean "i'd" and "like -to"

...specifically as it pertains to the like-to aspect...  it's hard to put  toothless in the same sentence there -

interesting choice.

[Typhoon Tip]

45 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

... I see a lot of guidance have an inv like feature which pumps in lots of ESE flow ahead of it....

Yeah...same shit that's effected all cold, multi-stream determined systems spanning the last ... 10 years really, and that is that the N stream needs to either phase the f'er or get the f outta of the way.  The partial thing isn't always good.

We can get away with mangled p-types and/or lollies for vicarious living in the winter, but in spring/marginality season there's less room to negotiate.  

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yeah...same shit that's effected all cold, multi-stream determined systems, spanning the last ... 10 years really, and that is that the N stream needs to either phase the f'er or get the f outta of the way.  The partial thing isn't always good.

We can get away with mangled p-types and/or lollies for vicarious living in the winter, but in spring/marginality season there's less room to negotiate.  

There’s usually better baroclinicity in the winter too which helps intensify secondary mid-level centers which thwarts the SE flow and starts turning it more E and ENE. We don’t have that here. 

[Sn0waddict]

Was just gonna comment on how nice of a day it is and then i see the NAM. Wtf

[IowaStorm05]

I was out completing a couple errands just now and determined it’s official: We have crossed from the cold season into the warm season.

I know spring is March 1 to June 1 in the world of weather, but that is a transitional 90ish days. But some people talk about a “warm season” and a “cool season”. I guess it would make sense that April 15 would be the boundary for interior SNE… which is a middle-ground temperate climate. 
 

April 15 to October 15 is predominantly warmer weather here and after October 15 until April 15 is normally cold, chilly or otherwise unpleasant most of the time until nicer days take over in frequency around April 15.

[Typhoon Tip]

14 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

There’s usually better baroclinicity in the winter too which helps intensify secondary mid-level centers which thwarts the SE flow and starts turning it more E and ENE. We don’t have that here. 

Excellent point...

In fact, I was snarking about that, but as a seasonal tendency/model correction necessity earlier in this morning.

The models will tend to over-assess the b-c gradients, because they were too cold to begin with - something about the seasonal damping effect of the sun is not modulated correctly out in time.  I see this every year - I'd be fascinating to talk to the modelers/engineers down in NCEP about this ...and how/when the Euro or GFS tend to flood D7+ < 0 C 850 air masses down to 35 N like a full radian sun gets weaker out further into April??   Coastal comes along and it's February in the model's imagination.  

I'm being sloppy there a bit but you get it -

Thing is, we can't discount it happening, either.  1987... 1977 ...1997 ... flurries in recent Mays?  It's just narrowing the margin for error. Probably we have more of what you are mentioning in anomalous dosing ...less interference...etc.

[Damage In Tolland]

4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Excellent point...

In fact, I was snarking about that, but as a seasonal tendency/model correction necessity earlier in this morning.

The models will tend to over-assess the b-c gradients, because they were too cold to begin with - something about the seasonal damping effect of the sun is not modulated correctly out in time.  I see this every year - I'd be fascinating to talk to the modelers/engineers down in NCEP about this ...and how/when the Euro or GFS tend to flood D7+ < 0 C 850 air masses down to 35 N like a full radian sun gets weaker out further into April??   Coastal comes along and it's February in the model's imagination.  

I'm being sloppy there a bit but you get it -

Thing is, we can't discount it happening, either.  1987... 1977 ...1997 ... flurries in recent Mays?  It's just narrowing the margin for error. Probably we have more of what you are mentioning in anomalous dosing ...less interference...etc.

Those were the old days A warming climate has made that virtually impossible to happen again 

[Typhoon Tip]

7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Those were the old days A warming climate has made that virtually impossible to happen again 

Hehhh ...I understand the notion ... ( soupcon of frustration in hand throwing - haha), but I don't believe it's that far gone. 

...yet.

Like I said, and is true, the number of May days with snow in air - whether accumulated or not - in the last 20 years is up over the previous multi-30-year average trend.  That's code for having more of them.  There's large -scale circulation theoretical arguments that it could in fact be related to CC stuff...but that's not as important as it is that those incidences of cold very late, merely did not time synoptically with a storm system.

Regardless of why ... I don't know if we'd should believe we are protected from late storms.

[CoastalWx]

We’ve had several snow events in April and even early May 2020. Kevin at the brewery.

[Damage In Tolland]

6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

We’ve had several snow events in April and even early May 2020. Kevin at the brewery.

Kevin home tanning and edging the beds with no beers yet . I’m talking about a major snowstorm. Not an inch at 1k

[ORH_wxman]

9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

We’ve had several snow events in April and even early May 2020. Kevin at the brewery.

We had a warning snow event in the interior last year on 4/18…lol. 
 

edit: it was 4/16 last year. The 4/18 storm was in 2020. 

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Kevin home tanning and edging the beds with no beers yet . I’m talking about a major snowstorm. Not an inch at 1k

Same. You had like 7.5” last year at this time?

[CoastalWx]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

We had a warning snow event in the interior last year on 4/18…lol. 

Yeah just mentioned that LOL. Poor guy getting dementia.

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Yeah just mentioned that LOL. Poor guy getting dementia.

I edited my post. Back to back years post-4/15…LOL….already 3 craft wine coolers in and he’s done. Ready to pull over the explorer on I-84

[tamarack]

Siggy snow after 4/15 is a rare commodity and seems very capricious. 
The 2 biggest late April snowfalls, 13" on 22-23/86 and 11" on 19/83, were in NNJ while we were visiting there. 
Next was 8.0" on 4/16/88, which complicated the snowtreads-removed trip toward our DC excursion.  Then 6.3" in the 28-29/87 storm and 5.9" on 17-18/92.  All 3 of those came in Gardiner, mildest place (along with BGR) where we've lived in Maine.
New Sharon comes in 6th with 4.2" on 28-29,02 then 3.6" on 17/10.  Also had 3.2" on 5/9/20.
Bangor had 3.5" on 23/74 after 2 days of 60s-70s.
Fort Kent's only top 10 entry was 3.2" on 4/30-5/1/78.

Averages for 4/16 on:  (NNJ not shown as I wasn't keeping records for most of my years there.)
BGR:  1.20"
FK:     1.21"
Gard.: 1.70"
NS:     0.95"

[Damage In Tolland]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Same. You had like 7.5” last year at this time?

I thought he was talking about May?

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I thought he was talking about May?

There’s a sample size of 1 in recent history lol. 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah just mentioned that LOL. Poor guy getting dementia.

Common lesco side effect 

[CoastalWx]

4/18/20 was really cool. About 3” even here. Latest I can ever recall for amounts like that.

[CoastalWx]

Euro into CT. Maybe a gloppy inch to start about 1K in ORH hills before flip? That’s not the track I’d want. Congrats BGM to Dacks.

[Typhoon Tip]

5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I thought he was talking about May?

Who ... me?   I said the word "April" in the post -

if other, never mind..  But either way, one should think about "seasonally" - not by month anyway. Months mean nothing in nature. 

The context and fair interpretation is the concept of snow late, and not thinking we can escape that.   That's the point. 

[Typhoon Tip]

Here's a classic blue bomb ...ho man - pleezy weezy with sugar on top.  Particularly because if you roll this series of GGEM charts thru, two days later there's a huge warm dome setting up

[MJO812]

Congrats Interior

[powderfreak]

Air mass must be super dry.  Just had snowflakes flying at 3,500ft with a temp of 48F.  Tons of virga all around and high winds materialized out of no where.