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April Pattern/obs thread.


weathafella
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That departing shortwave ahead of Tuesday’s system needs to slow down to give a good chance of snow over interior. It lifts out a little too fast which allows the Tuesday system to tuck in too tight and bring the low level flow out of the east and southeast. 

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57 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

I use stone. I hate mulch.

Mulch reminds me of an anal retentive OCD neat freak that would normally keep it in the home, but having taxed the other household inhabitant's lives to the brink of sanity ... they have no other options.  So they bring their oppressive, 'ruler to palm' smacking nun neurosis for order and fear of masturbating outside the home.  Such that instead of allowing nature to provide organically occurring splendorous patchworks, they get to exert their compulsive sense of orderliness and oppressive policing over the extension of their domain, too - which ironically is what gives them a hard-on..  

To say nothing of the fact that it's horrendous for the environment but it is what it is...

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47 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Mulch reminds me of an anal retentive OCD neat freak that would normally keep it in the home, but having taxed the other household inhabitant's lives to the brink of sanity ... they have no other options.  So they bring their oppressive, 'ruler to palm' smacking nun neurosis for order and fear of masturbating outside the home.  Such that instead of allowing nature to provide organically occurring splendorous patchworks, they get to exert their compulsive sense of orderliness and oppressive policing over the extension of their domain, too - which ironically is what gives them a hard-on..  

To say nothing of the fact that it's horrendous for the environment but it is what it is...

How do you really feel?

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Yeah today and tomorrow have been on the charts for awhile as sneaky nape days - before the other shoe falls on more typical New England spring BS...

Right now it is nearing utopia outside.   63 F with very light winds, with that purified kind of translucent blue that allows the sun an edgier heat sensation.  You walk under and it's instant.   

The 850 mb is around 6 C ... And so an 850 mb adiabat is roughly 73 or 74 in the 2 meter T, but I'm not sure we'll get the BL that tall...Still, with light WNW component adding some d-slope physics maybe we can go over the 68..69 machine numbers.  Who's complainin' though.  

Tomorrow is the same sort of scenario but more clouds around probably so some limitation.      

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Next week's cold expanse of air N of Tennessee seems a bit heavy handed by the Euro though.  Not sure how thru that 72 - 96 hour period, the Euro keeps the air mass -3 C as far south as the Ohio River, under April 18th/19th solar when there will be low cloud count.  

That of course sets the stage for the latter coastal, that gas-lights the local consortium of snow dorks that can't seasonally let it go... Ha, but I wonder if all that's falsely too cold conserving.  The air mass should moderate. 

Kidding a little there ...but I wouldn't be surprised if that air mass gets modulated up some. The dailies may not end up as pessimistic because of that. These cyclones in that latter mid range, at this time of year, ...can be over engineered based upon the model's own cold bias' faux enhancing baroclinic gradients.  

We'll see...    I will say, in the last 5 years, I've seen packing pellet flurries in May, twice.  And probably 8 or so times in the last 15 years in general. Those have occurred regardless of leading winter this or signal that, air, land or sea.  It's probably part of the seasonal lag shit/ CC .. Either way, clearly we just need to time things better and there we go.  I don't a give ratz ass if it's been 80 already, either.  Whether the patterns have delivered warmth or not is no vector.

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58 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Next week's cold expanse of air N of Tennessee seems a bit heavy handed by the Euro though.  Not sure how thru that 72 - 96 hour period, the Euro keeps the air mass -3 C as far south as the Ohio River, under April 18th/19th solar when there will be low cloud count.  

That of course sets the stage for the latter coastal, that gas-lights the local consortium of snow dorks that can't seasonally let it go... Ha, but I wonder if all that's falsely too cold conserving.  The air mass should moderate. 

Kidding a little there ...but I wouldn't be surprised if that air mass gets modulated up some. The dailies may not end up as pessimistic because of that. These cyclones in that latter mid range, at this time of year, ...can be over engineered based upon the model's own cold bias' faux enhancing baroclinic gradients.  

We'll see...    I will say, in the last 5 years, I've seen packing pellet flurries in May, twice.  And probably 8 or so times in the last 15 years in general. Those have occurred regardless of leading winter this or signal that, air, land or sea.  It's probably part of the seasonal lag shit/ CC .. Either way, clearly we just need to time things better and there we go.  I don't a give ratz ass if it's been 80 already, either.  Whether the patterns have delivered warmth or not is no vector.

Sounds like you were the one gas lit

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4 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

That departing shortwave ahead of Tuesday’s system needs to slow down to give a good chance of snow over interior. It lifts out a little too fast which allows the Tuesday system to tuck in too tight and bring the low level flow out of the east and southeast. 

NAM is a fridge and GFS getting a clue. 

nam_2022041512_084_41.63--72.13.png

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