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April Pattern/obs thread.


weathafella
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37 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Today is ass. Toss the tulip prancing forecasts.

Morning satellite certainly offering less confidence ... yikes.    There is a back edge, one of those no cloud to full sun immediately types, pressing east through upstate NY ... Lucky cow-poke townships and farm land bust out, while we bust machine guidance.   Boo ya 150 mi W of the Capital District.   It appears to be moving around 50 mph...  I'm not sure that times very far E of the Berkshires until afternoon, not without acceleration or dissolving/hole punching along the way.  MEX had 70 for KFIT/KASH/KBED and that ain't happening in June with 0 sun. It'll be interesting to see how this evolves.  

By the way, did you see the classic BD on Thursday?   

One of two things happens here:    

One, the NAM is just wrong ... in which case the front holds up precariously, but holds up nonetheless ... roughly RUT-PWM or thereabouts.  

Two, the NAM in more right ... in which case, it is actually underdone.  If the front gets that bullied in, it is unlikely to hold up with that full bladder of cold lobe ( 21 Z position Chris just posted ).  It'll keep obtruding rudely SW clear to NYC ...

 

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9 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Morning satellite certainly offering less confidence ... yikes.    There is a back edge, one of those no cloud to full sun immediately types, pressing east through upstate NY ... Lucky cow-poke townships and farm land bust out, while we bust machine guidance.   Boo ya 150 mi W of the Capital District.   It appears to be moving around 50 mph...  I'm not sure that times very far E of the Berkshires until afternoon, not without acceleration or dissolving/hole punching along the way.  MEX had 70 for KFIT/KASH/KBED and that ain't happening in June with 0 sun. It'll be interesting to see how this evolves.  

By the way, did you see the classic BD on Thursday?   

One of two things happens here:    

One, the NAM is just wrong ... in which case the front holds up precariously, but holds up nonetheless ... roughly RUT-PWM or thereabouts.  

Two, the NAM in more right ... in which case, it is actually underdone.  If the front gets that bullied in, it is unlikely to hold up with that full bladder of cold lobe ( 21 Z position Chris just posted ).  It'll keep obtruding rudely SW clear to NYC ...

 

It’s possible we have it decent after like 2pm or so. Maybe after 12p Berks. But meh. 
I fully expect  the NAM to be right.

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Man... the more I look at this ..  this week is really not that great.  There were valid synoptic interpretations to see it as better, but now that we're on top of it ...each day is getting butt banged for a different reason.  Today, the this cloud lag and light rain...  Tomorrow could be WAA cloud packed... Thursday - you know...that may not even be a backdoor now that I look at this.  It really appears the warm front never comes back through on Wednesday to begin with. It gets to maybe Hartford, then stalls...  Then, pressure rises around PSM some imperceptible amt and that's the ball game.  It's not a BD if your already in bondage -

Friday may end up the best day - we'll see.  But the ,main front limps through overnight Thursday, and cleans out the Gulf of Maine colon blow ... but no aggressive backside CAA.   Moisture elevations appears to want that afternoon to be sunnier ... could be 70 aoa 4pm ish.

Then next week, winter begins in accordance with the models' inability to factor seasonal forcing...   Welcome to month of Anus

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6 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Man... the more I look at this ..  this week is really not that great.  There were valid synoptic interpretations to see it as better, but now that we're on top of it ...each day is getting butt banged for a different reason.  Today, the this cloud lag and light rain...  Tomorrow could be WAA cloud packed... Thursday - you know...that may not even be a backdoor now that I look at this.  It really appears the warm front never comes back through on Wednesday to begin with. It gets to maybe Hartford, then stalls...  Then, pressure rises around PSM some imperceptible amt and that's the ball game.  It's not a BD if your already in bondage -

Friday may end up the best day - we'll see.  But the ,main front limps through overnight Thursday, and cleans out the Gulf of Maine colon blow ... but no aggressive backside CAA.   Moisture elevations appears to want that afternoon to be sunnier ... could be 70 aoa 4pm ish.

Then next week, winter begins in accordance with the models' inability to factor seasonal forcing...   Welcome to month of Anus

Good morning Tip. Well done, though a bit scatological in content and delivery. Now back to listening as Nettie Fowler sings June Is Bustin’ Out All Over. As always ….

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26 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

 

Wheeee, April blizzard, just what everyone wants.  I've never been to N Dakota and I don't think I've ever even met anyone from there. 

I looked at the 10 day forecast and yikes. 20s or 30s for highs every single day with lows in the teens.  No thanks.

Also the sun is coming out here now, some blue sky as well. So I’m thinking we salvage the second half of the day quite nicely at least in western areas.

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1 hour ago, rclab said:

Good morning Tip. Well done, though a bit scatological in content and delivery. Now back to listening Nettie Fowler sing June Is Bustin’ Out All Over. As always ….

The scatology is directed at God  ;)    'Anus' is his/her month - we didn't afflict ourselves which his/her being an asshole.

as for today ... mm, among the fastest I've seen clearing aspect move across the land.  4 hours ago it was over Rochester NY? It's just passed Springfield Mass ...  At this rate, it will clear the east coast by 1pm ...  I thought it 50 mph by index finger rule, but that had to be closer to 75.  That's pretty quick.    So fairness to objectivity, today may earn a B grade over the F of this morning... heh

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19 minutes ago, Sn0waddict said:

I looked at the 10 day forecast and yikes. 20s or 30s for highs every single day with lows in the teens.  No thanks.

Also the sun is coming out here now, some blue sky as well. So I’m thinking we salvage the second half of the day quite nicely at least in western areas.

Up to 57⁰, skies have cleared out nicely

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