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April Pattern/obs thread.


weathafella
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20 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Thurs into the shittah. Cruel early guidance. Those 80’s stuck in South joisey. 
 

That’s turning into a “best in ME”, surface HP overhead with the back door down to the northern mid Atlantic. Oof.

Timing issue. Some are a bit later on in the day after many areas get in the 70's to near 80. Obviously better chance to be further SW, vs somewhere like Gloucester. 

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You know ... I've seldom observed that, a burst in of "Ahh," soothing cold rush of air while suffering a torrid afternoon.  In my experience, back doors either correct from mild teases to loathing cold ( with na na na-na na warm air lurking in NJ).  But I've never personally gone from bigger heat to 'drink of cold air' relief.     I wonder why that is. 

Maybe it is an artifact that back door front phenomenon tends happen more readily when already the pattern fights itself for warmth. It is in technically still a larger cool manifold ... Clawing for a warm air mass - in which case, ...the warmth we're trying to will into the area isn't systemically apt to be higher heat in the first place - if we get into the party ( rarely...), it's breaking middling warmth to go back the other way.  

Big heat needs a total synoptic manifold at continental scales to really happen.  Those scenarios won't typically contrast 100 F air drowning NYC in sweat, while it's 50 in PWM ...  That's beyond the d(T) typology over the front.    Something like this... 

They do occur though, 'ahh corrections.'   They're just rarer. 

The closest I recall was April 2002 ... We had been lavishing in an absurdly warm spring to begin with.. I think I saw 90 a couple of times by Easter ...certainly strings of 80s.  It was crazy.  I was living in Waltham at the time, metro-west USA of broad streets and parking lots, brick and mortar, with just a few parks here and there, along with the sylvan glades that immediately line the Charles River.  I mean it's closer to 'urban hot' amid those I-95 towns than it is offering rural soil tempered a.c., when the wind is west and the sun is higher in the sky.  We piled out of work and hit the courts for sets of Tennis blithely complacent, the warmth was so persistent that spring.  Truly weird but no one was complaining...  It was the utter anti-climate for New England April - perhaps a 50::1 return rate or longer oddity.  

One such day that month of lore the temperatures had soared to 93 F by 1 pm.  I was working at the time along the 900 block of Comm Ave, right across from B.U.'s rec center - although they had demoed the property and built a sport arena since, I believe.  Anyway, I remember the front came through around 1:30 ..2pm ... and it was 63 inside of 20 minutes there.  The sky line of the city had those sailor's ghost cloud shrouds just spilling around the buildings, racing SW.  Meanwhile .. higher dark based CU with their bubbling turrets, leaned over and stripped toward the NE.  The college bustling to and fro of the Greenline T-stop beneath our 2nd story window, in their shorts and halter tops, had taken to huddling in groups, arms crossed, like Emperor Penguins. Their purple thighs caught by the abruptness of the change - I would imagine that was an unwanted change for a 20 year old female. Just guessing, ha.   But it was hot, and if someone were stressing from 93/54 ( typical dry heat types of April), a the rushing in of that BD air mass might have actually been soothing. 

 

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1 hour ago, jbenedet said:

Thurs into the shittah. Cruel early guidance. Those 80’s stuck in South joisey. 
 

That’s turning into a “best in ME”, surface HP overhead with the back door down to the northern mid Atlantic. Oof.

Forecast highs Tues-Thurs for Gloucester County (~20 miles south of PHI) are 74/75/79, then back to 60s.  And "joisey" is for the NYC-metro part of the state - SNJ folks snicker at that accent.  :D

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I wonder why ECMWF is so willing to start giving out products less sale ... interesting. 

I have a paranoid muse that it's a marketing ploy - because they are about to release some kind of super tech that makes the current stuff seem primitive.

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3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Might be just one day, because Friday and Saturday also are good on the GFS. 

right - we're better off if the main front whiskeys through.  almost a guilty pleasure watching a BD air mass arrive then get fisted out by a front within 12 hours

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1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

right - we're better off if the main front whiskeys through.  almost a guilty pleasure watching a BD air mass arrive then get fisted out by a front within 12 hours

Pretty nice week overall, so I'll take it. Lord knows it could be worse, probably will be the following week. :lol: 

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There's a deep winter storm on the charts though ... I mean, it's not situated 50 mi E of the eastern tip of L.I., no, but there's something to be said for having one exist.  

In a pure scientific/objectivity ...it matters that the Dakotas and southern Alberta may get walloped by snow and wind.  It's tough to be philosophical as winter enthusiasts, when it's 60 to 76 F under shards of suns, yes - but what could have been might have been visualized correctly.  Just didn't happen precisely here...   Tough to ask anyone to nail a geography in vulnerable period, in spring no less if the idea is a longer lead.

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8 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

 

There's a deep winter storm on the charts though ... I mean, it's not situated 50 mi E of the eastern tip of L.I., no, but there's something to be said for having one exist.  

In a pure scientific/objectivity ...it matters that the Dakotas and southern Alberta may get walloped by snow and wind.  It's tough to be philosophical as winter enthusiasts, when it's 60 to 76 F under shards of suns, yes - but what could have been might have been visualized correctly.  Just didn't happen precisely here...   Tough to ask anyone to nail a geography in vulnerable period, in spring no less if the idea is a longer lead.

Early to mid next week there could be something near East Coast. I’m just busting chops with Steve. 

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