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April Pattern/obs thread.


weathafella
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1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

Haha, I will say I don’t share the hatred of springtime like you guys do.  It can be a really nice season up here.

On an aside, the 2PM dew point at CAR was 3F.  That’s wild.  Red flag air mass.

The RH map shows todays “winners.”

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Once we get to where things are open and the mud has dried, it can be nice.  

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3 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

No what's likely to happen is countless nights at 78 F with highs muted by theta-e ...  So yeah, you get the 'hottest summer on record' barely above 92

I think it’s a dry summer relatively which should enable some spectacular heat vs normal expectations.   I’m going with 37 AOA 90 for BOS and 3 AOA 100.

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19 minutes ago, weathafella said:

I think it’s a dry summer relatively which should enable some spectacular heat vs normal expectations.   I’m going with 37 AOA 90 for BOS and 3 AOA 100.

dry air doesn't fit the CC model but ... we'll see - I'm not here to disagree;  just adding info

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28 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Yeah. When was BOS last BN for JJA?

09? lol…idk

I don’t care about mins in the summer though. If it’s 55 or 68, idc. Max temps are what it’s all about. 79/71 does nothing for me when it’s showery and BKN. Give me 82/52 all month. 

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10 minutes ago, dendrite said:

09? lol…idk

I don’t care about mins in the summer though. If it’s 55 or 68, idc. Max temps are what it’s all about. 79/71 does nothing for me when it’s showery and BKN. Give me 82/52 all month. 

Amen there.  The dew crowd would definitely prefer 70s for temps if the dews were also 70s over a dry 88F.  I understand it too, as 79/71 feels almost more uncomfortable than 88/54 or something.  I'll always take the dry heat... the type where you get into the shade and find relief.  Not the days when even in the forest it feels like the leaves are dripping with humidity.

Calling for an Above Normal summer temp regime though seems like it isn't even a forecast at this point... it's just what happens now.  Getting 3 summer months below normal in the means would take a volcano or something these days.

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1 hour ago, dendrite said:

09? lol…idk

I don’t care about mins in the summer though. If it’s 55 or 68, idc. Max temps are what it’s all about. 79/71 does nothing for me when it’s showery and BKN. Give me 82/52 all month. 

Agreed.  Love those kind of days. Warmth/hot with low dews are my summer jam.  Usually we are stuck in meh though. 

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9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

That forecast could easily bust too.

Lot of uncertainy later next week....seems like Tuesday is probably going to be pretty nice, but no guarantees after that. Some guidance punches us into a warm sector for an early summer preview but others show legit hideous high to our northeast screwing us over.

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It doesn't look that way from what I'm seeing over the overnight information.  Oh ...it could turn out that way, a 'torch,'  subjectivity of that expression notwithstanding... but for now?   Not really.

The Euro is now two consecutive runs with a BD that would penetrate to at least central NJ in that look - both yesterday's 12z and this recent 00z last evening.  That ends it on Wednesday mid day for SNH and in reality, ...it's slamming screen doors and taut flags cutting back SW during the afternoon in that synopsis it shows - that's both experience and climo talking there.  You should probably keep in mind, that is more typical spring into early summer behavior in our climatology, warm mid ranges that end up only delivering the first day of the series before the reality obtrudes. 

The GFS seems less BD, but just is so hurried and progressive with over all flow, that by the time the warm sector comes in the front's already knocking on the regional door mid week.   Not only that, because it is ablating the top of the ridge so flat ( I suspected  bias in this range ), it's not cleaning out the warm sector when it arrives.  That's called a 'dirty sector' ... Despite those hydrostatic heights nearing 560 dm... you're skies are misty.  Welcome to the 60s with occasional light showers whisking by in between splashes of sun.   It'll help green up, sure...  but otherwise? that's getting jipped.

GGEM doesn't look a whole helluva lot different than the GFS.  

I wonder if folks are seeing the general curvature of the non-hydrostatic height/500 mb circulation manifold, and running to the bank with it.   The details of the operational runs say pump the breaks.  

I'm not suggesting a cleaned out/longer period warming can't happen ... But it seems the details are being ignored.  And, also fits climo for the month of Anus to not succeed the former.

It's all 120+ hours so there's time. We'll see if there swing back in favor of opening things up again.

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