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Thursday Night (03/31/2022) Convective Potential


weatherwiz
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A potent shortwave trough propagates across the Great Lakes region Thursday before opening up and lifting to the northeast. Surface low pressure moves northeast through the Ohio Valley into Canada pushing a warm front northward through the Northeast with attendant cold front pushing through the Ohio Valley towards the Northeast. This system will be accompanied by very strong dynamics with an 80+ knot 500mb jet streak punching into the region and a 40+ knot low-level jet. These dynamics and lift should support a low topped line of convection pushing through most of the region, however, with the greatest lift lifting to the northeast this line will likely weaken with eastward extent. While surface instability will be lacking, combination of increasing low-level theta-e air and very cold mid-level temperatures will support ample elevated instability for convection to work with. Strong wind gusts are possible along with small hail. 

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5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

My eyes, ears and online wx station. How’d yours coming along? A met who won’t hook his station up because it costs $ :lol:

I just don’t care lol. Only thing I care about is 32F really. You should get a stratus since your gauge overmeasures. I don’t trust mine. 

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