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April 2022 temperature forecast contest

Roger Smith
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Roger Smith

Roger Smith

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Predict the temperature anomalies (F deg) relative to 1991-2020 normal values as reported by the NWS in their CF-6 documents.

Nine locations are used in the contest: 

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

Deadline as always is 06z April 1st (Thursday night, early Friday morning this year). 

Good luck !!

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Roger Smith

Roger Smith

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Table of forecasts for April 2022

 

FORECASTER ___________ DCA _NYC _BOS __ ORD _ATL _IAH ___ DEN _PHX _SEA

hudsonvalley21 _________+2.7 _+2.1 _+1.9 ___ +1.6 _+2.5 _+3.0 ___ +2.2 _+0.7 _-0.1

so_whats_happening ___+2.0 _+1.6 _+1.4 ___ +1.3 _+2.0 _+2.1 ___ +1.0 _+1.1 _-0.6

wxdude64 ______________+1.6 _+1.2 _ +1.1 ___ +0.5 _+1.3 _+2.2 ___ +1.7 _+2.1 _-1.2

wxallannj _______________+1.3 _+1.2 _ +1.1 ___ +0.6 _+1.7 _+0.8 ___ +1.4 _+2.1 _-1.8

Scotty Lightning _______ +1.0 _+1.0 _+1.0 ___ +1.0 _+1.5 _+1.5 ___ +0.5 _+1.0 __0.0

BKViking _______________ +0.8 _+0.9_+0.4 ___+1.0 _+2.2 _+1.6 ___ +1.0 _+0.4 _-0.8

___ Consensus _________+0.8 _+0.9 _+1.0 ___ +0.5 _+1.3 _+1.5 ___ +1.0 _+1.1 _-0.8

RodneyS _______________+0.6 _+0.4 _+1.3 ___ -1.2 _+1.2 _+1.4 ___ +0.8 _+1.6 _-0.4

DonSutherland1________+0.5 _+0.7 _+0.6 ___ -0.9 _+0.2 _+0.8 ___ +1.5 _+2.5 _-2.0

___ Normal ______________ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ___ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ____0.0 __ 0.0 __0.0

RJay ___________________-0.5 _ -0.5 _ -0.5 ___ -1.0 _+1.0 _+3.0 ___ +0.5 _+1.0 _-1.0

Tom ____________________-0.6 _ -0.5 _ -0.6 ___ +0.5 _-0.1 _+1.7 ___ +1.6 _+0.6 _+0.4

Roger Smith ____________ -1.1 _ -1.2 _ -0.7 ___ -1.4 _ -1.2 _ -1.8 ___ +0.4 _+2.8 _-1.0

___________________________________

warmest and coldest forecasts are color coded. Normal is coldest for DEN and PHX. 

Consensus is the median value, sixth ranked of eleven forecasts. 

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Roger Smith

Roger Smith

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Updated anomalies and projections ...

_________________________ DCA _NYC _BOS __ ORD _ATL _IAH __ DEN _PHX _SEA

11th ___ (10d anom) ____ -2.5 _ -0.6 _ +3.0 __-3.2 _-2.4 _+1.2 __ -0.2 _+6.7 _-2.5

21st ___ (20d anom) ____ -1.0 _ +0.3 _+3.4 __-3.6 _-1.0 _ +2.6 __ -1.5 _+4.0 _-5.0

 

11th ___ (p20d anom) __ -2.0 _ -0.5 _ +1.5 __ -3.0 _ -2.0 __0.0 __ -3.5 _+2.0 _-2.5

11th ___ (p27d anom) __ -1.0 __ 0.0 _ +1.5 __ -2.5 _ -1.5 _ +0.5 __ -2.0 _ +2.5 _-1.5

21st ___ (p30d anom) ___ 0.0 _+1.0 _+3.0 __ -2.5 __ 0.0 _ +2.0 __ -0.5 _ +3.0 _-4.0

28th ___ (p30d anom) ___ 0.0 _ 0.0 _ +2.0 __ -2.5 __ 0.0 _ +3.0 ___ 0.0 _ +3.5 _ -4.0

 

30th ___ (30d anom) _____-1.3 _-1.0 _ +1.5 __ -2.7 __ 0.0 _ +2.8 __ +0.4 _ +3.0 _-4.2

 

11th __ A rather cold start to April in many regions except the southwest which has seen summer-like heat. Colder air is moving south again but mostly into central and western regions with just leftover cool temperatures expected to reach the northeastern states. Past the immediate outlook period a more average sort of regime is indicated.

There are a few minor changes to seasonal snowfall totals -- 32.6" ORD, 44.8" DTW, 95.3" BUF which will be incorporated into the table still over in the March thread. That will migrate over to this thread eventually. The snowfall season may have a bit left to give in a few locations, by the looks of recent model runs. 

21st _ Trends continue up and down but rather cold in ORD and very cold for SEA (and here, we currently have light snow and a balmy 1 p.m. temp of 35F). Additional snow 0.2" ORD to 32.8", DTW 2.3" to 47.1", BUF 0.7" to 96.0" and BTV 4.2" to 70.7" with all others incl DEN no measurable new snow, some traces. Changes will be made to the contest scoring table located in the March thread. The table will be migrating over to this thread at end of April. The contest is not settled as further snow at DEN or other locations could change the order of finish. The measurable snow season lasts through May at some locations. 

Projections to end of month based on balancing warm and cold spells next ten days in east, continued warmth in PHX and continued current trends in DEN and SEA. Will post some preliminary scoring based on these estimates. 

28th _ Tweaked the end of month projections, some have changed a bit, others were okay. BUF had 1.4" more snow on the 27th, waiting for this cold spell to end to update the tables and bring them over to here at end of April. No other new snow reported as of end of 27th. 

30th _ Posting end of month estimates that has been edited to completion overnight into May 1st. Also, snowfall contest update has been added to scoring table. 

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Roger Smith

Roger Smith

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Final scoring for April 2022

SEA required adjusted scoring as top raw score was 56. Most of the changes are small as the progression overlapped the raw scores most of the way. Scores marked ^ are adjusted to fit the progression. The lower half of the scores were higher (or same) on raw score than progression.  

 

FORECASTER __________DCA_NYC_BOS __east __ORD_ATL_IAH__cent __ c/e __ DEN_PHX_SEA __west ___ TOTALS

RJay ___________________ 84 _ 90 _ 60__ 234__ 66 _ 80 _ 96__242 _476 __98 _ 60 _ 42^__200 ____ 676

DonSutherland1________ 64 _ 66 _ 82 __212 __ 64 _ 96 _ 60 __220 _ 432 __ 78 _ 90 _ 60^__228 ____ 660

Roger Smith ____________96 _ 96 _ 56__ 248 __74 _ 76 _ 08 __ 158 _ 406 __100_ 96 _42^__238 ____644

RodneyS _______________ 62 _ 72 _ 96 __230 __ 70 _ 76 _ 72 __218 _ 448 __ 92 _ 72 _ 24 __ 188 ____ 636

wxdude64 ______________42 _ 56 _ 92 __190 __ 36 _ 74 _ 88 __198 _ 388 __ 74 _ 82 _ 48^__ 204 ____ 592

Tom ____________________86 _ 90 _ 58 __ 234__ 36 _ 98 _ 78__212 _ 446 __76 _ 52 _ 08 __ 136 ____ 582

___ Consensus _________ 58 _ 62 _ 90 __210__ 36 _ 74 _ 74 __184 _ 394 __ 88 _ 62 _ 32 __ 182 ____ 576

wxallannj _______________ 48 _ 56 _ 92 __196__ 34 _ 66 _ 60 __160 _ 356 __ 80 _ 82 _ 54^__ 216 ____572

___ Normal _____________ 74 _ 80 _ 70 __224__ 46 _100 _ 44 __190 _ 414 __ 92 _ 40 _ 16 __ 148 ____ 562

Scotty Lightning _______ 54 _ 60 _ 90 __204__ 26 _ 70 _ 74 __ 170 _ 374 __ 98 _ 60 _ 16 __ 174 ____ 548

so_whats_happening ___34 _ 48 _ 98 __180 __ 20 _ 60 _ 86 __ 166 _ 346 __ 88 _ 62 _ 28 __ 178 ____ 524

BKViking _______________ 58 _ 62 _ 78 __198 __ 26 _ 56 _ 76 __ 158 _ 356 __ 88 _ 48 _ 32 __ 168 ____ 524

hudsonvalley21 ________ 20 _ 38 _ 92 __150 __ 14 _ 50 _ 96 __ 160 _ 310 __ 64 _ 54 _ 18 __ 136 ____ 446

___________________________________

Extreme Forecast Report

DCA, NYC, ORD, DEN _ Coldest forecasts take top score (Roger Smith)

SEA _ Coldest forecast takes top score (Don Sutherland 1)

IAH _ Warmest forecasts take top score (RJay, hudsonvalley21)

PHX _ Warmest forecast takes top score (Roger Smith)

BOS _ Second warmest forecast takes top score (so_whats_happening); warmest (hudsonvalley21) takes a loss. 

ATL _ Second coldest forecast takes top score (Tom, also Normal); coldest (Roger Smith) takes a loss. 

(nine of nine qualified, six coldest, three warmest)

 

============================================

(migrating in from March thread ...)

Snowfall Forecast Contest Departures (errors)
 
This table will track the departures of each forecaster, those which are in italics and underlined are forecasts already passed by actual amounts; those departures (errors) can only increase with more snow. All other departures (errors) can be reduced by new snowfalls. The actual snowfalls are the latest available for each station. A reminder, our contest is based on total winter snowfall, not any portion such as Dec to Mar, so it includes anything that might fall in April and May. 
 
The table is now in order of least total departures.  
 
_________________________________ DCA __NYC __BOS ___ ORD __DTW __BUF __ DEN __SEA __BTV ___ Total dep
 
(to date -- May 21) _____________ 13.2 __ 17.9 __ 54.0 ___ 32.8 __ 47.1 ___ 97.4 __49.4 __ 9.2 __70.7 
 
 
RodneyS ________________________ 12.8 __ 25.0 __ 45.0 __ 54.0 __ 42.0 __ 91.0 __ 48.0 __12.0 __ 75.0 
RodneyS _________________________ 0.4 ___ 7.1 ____ 9.0 ___ 21.2 ___ 5.1 ____ 6.4 ___ 1.4 __ 2.8 ___ 4.3 ______ 57.7
 
Roger Smith ______________________17.5 __ 32.5 __ 50.7 __ 44.8 __ 49.5 __107.2 __ 52.0 __10.5__ 82.2
Roger Smith ______________________ 4.3 __ 14.6____ 3.3  __ 12.0 ___ 2.4____ 9.8 ___ 2.6 ___ 1.3 __ 11.5 ______ 61.8 
 
DonSutherland 1 __________________9.4 __ 27.3 __ 44.9 __ 35.1 __ 28.3 __ 84.0 __ 43.4 __ 9.5 __ 71.5 
DonSutherland 1 __________________3.8 ___ 9.4 ___ 9.1 ____ 2.3 __ 18.8 ___13.4 ___ 6.0 __ 0.3 ___ 0.8 ______ 63.9 
 
RJay _____________________________ 5.0 __ 20.0 __ 42.0 __ 40.0 __ 34.0 __ 90.0 __ 50.0 __13.0 __100.0 
RJay _____________________________ 8.2 ____ 2.1 __ 12.0 ____ 7.2___13.1 ____ 7.4 ___ 0.6 ___ 3.8 __ 29.3 _____ 83.7
 
wxallannj ________________________12.0 __ 28.0 __ 36.0 __ 38.0 __ 36.0 __ 92.0 __ 41.0 __ 11.0 __ 95.0 
wxallannj ________________________ 1. 2 __ 10.1 ___ 18.0  ___ 5.2 ___ 11.1  ___ 5.4 ____8.4 ___1.8 __ 24.3 ______ 85.5
 
hudsonvalley21 __________________11.6 __ 30.3 __ 33.8 __ 32.7 __ 32.4 __ 94.0 __ 45.0 __10.2 __108.8 
hudsonvalley21 __________________ 1.6 __ 12.4 __ 20.2 ____ 0.1 ___14.7 ____3.4 ____4.4 ___ 1.0 ___ 38.1 ______95.9  
 
so_whats_happening _____________16.0 __ 34.0 __ 62.0 __ 41.0 __ 45.0 __ 74.0 __ 36.0 __11.0 __ 91.0 
so_whats_happening ______________2.8 __ 16.1 ____ 8.0 ___ 8.2 ____2.1 __ 23.4 ___ 13.4 ___1.8 __ 20.3 ______ 96.1
 
wxdude64 _______________________20.0 __ 38.0 __ 54.0 __ 52.0 __ 47.0 __104.0__ 58.0 __13.0 __105.0 
wxdude64 ________________________ 6.8 __ 20.1 ____0.0 __ 19.2 ____ 0.1 ___ 6.6 ___ 8.6 ___3.8 __ 34.3 _____ 100.5
 
Tom ______________________________17.7 __ 36.9 __ 46.1 __ 48.7 __ 47.8 __ 94.4 __ 65.2 __ 8.1 __102.2 
Tom ______________________________ 4.5 __ 19.0 ___ 7.9 ___ 15.9 ___ 0.7 ___ 3.0 ___ 15.8 ___1.1 ___ 31.5 ______ 101.4  
 
BKViking _________________________ 8.0 __ 28.0 __ 42.0 __ 44.0 __ 25.0 __ 88.0 __ 55.0 __22.0__ 85.0 
BKViking _________________________ 5.2 ___ 10.1 ___12.0 __ 11.2 __ 22.1 ____ 9.4 ____ 5.6 __12.8 __ 14.3 _____ 102.7  
 
Deformation Zone ________________ 8.0 __ 18.0 __ 36.0 __ 38.0 __ 44.0 __ 70.0 __ 24.0 __ 4.0 __ 86.0 
Deformation Zone ________________ 5.2 ____ 0.1 __ 18.0 ____5.2 ___ 3.1 ___ 27.4 __ 25.4 __ 5.2 __ 15.3 _____ 104.9
 
 
Scotty Lightning _________________10.0 __ 23.0 __ 38.0 __ 44.0 __ 38.0 __106.0 __ 49.0 __ 7.0 __129.0 
Scotty Lightning _________________ 3.2 ___ 5.1 ____16.0 __ 11.2 ____ 9.1 ____ 8.6 ___ 0.4 ___ 2.2 __ 58.3 ______ 114.1 
 
 
mean of forecasts _______________12.3 __ 28.4 __ 44.2 ___ 42.7 __ 39.1 __ 91.2 __ 47.2 __10.9 __ 94.2
mean of forecasts _______________ 0.9 __ 10.5 ____ 9.8 ____ 9.9 ____8.0 ___ 6.2 ___ 2.4 ___ 1.7 ___23.5 _______ 72.9 (3rd-4th)
 
====================================
 
These departures will continue to be updated but as of May 21st the contest is probably finished. 
Congrats to RodneyS -- a little more snow at DEN and I could have taken this one. 
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Roger Smith

Roger Smith

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_<<< ____________ Annual Scoring Report (Jan-Apr 2022) _______________>>>_

Total scores for each location, region ... best scores for locations in red, for regions in bold type.

DonSutherland1 advanced from 6th to 2nd, while wxallannj remained 3rd, and Tom moved from 5th to 4th, with so_whats_happening now in 5th and hudsonvalley21 now 8th as RodneyS moved from 8th to 6th. BKViking remains in 7th to 8th. RJay moved from 10th to 9th, exchanging positions with Scotty Lightning now 10th.

Consensus moved into sole possession of 3rd (had been tied 4th last month). Normal remains between 8th and 9th although now much closer to 9th.

 

 

FORECASTER ___________ DCA_NYC_BOS__east_ ORD_ATL_IAH __ cent _ c/e __ DEN_PHX_SEA __west __ TOTAL

 

wxdude64 ______________ 247 _293 _349 __ 889__277 _321_ 208__806 _1695 __250 _294 _309 __853 ____2548

DonSutherland1 _________ 268 _282 _302 __ 852 __316 _276 _142 __734 _1586 __238 _324 _280 __842 ____2428

___ Consensus ___________248 _266 _288 __ 802 __266 _296 _170__732 _1534 __268 _310 _284 __862 ____2396

wxallannj ________________232 _252 _308 __ 792 __272 _290 _190__752 _1544 __264 _302 _284 __850 ____2394

Tom _____________________252 _260 _244 __ 756 __276 _290 _288 __854 _1610 __288 _292 _184 __764 ____2374

so_whats_happening ____ 236 _262 _312 __ 810 __273 _290_ 170 __733 _1543 __228 _298 _302 __828 ____2371

RodneyS _________________228 _230 _264 __ 722 __248 _284 _198 __730 _1452 __298 _326 _272__896 ____2348

BKViking _________________246 _256 _272 __ 774 __236 _278 _142 __656 _1430 __260 _298 _280 __838 ____2268

hudsonvalley21 __________210 _242 _280 __ 732 __260 _268 _196 __724 _1456 __234 _308 _268 __810 ____2266

_____ Normal _____________208 _234 _232 __ 674 __192 _280 _224 __696 _ 1370 __260 _294 _238 __792 ____2162

RJay _____________________260 _278 _252 ___790 __272 _276 _142 __690 _ 1480 __236 _230 _198 __664 ____2144

Scotty Lightning _________208 _234 _272 __ 714 __ 154 _250 _174 __ 578 _ 1292 __ 246 _298 _228 __772 ____2064

Roger Smith ______________162 _ 174 _ 114 __ 450 __162 _ 212 _164 __538 __ 988 __ 336 _306 _262 __904 ____1892

Stormchaser Chuck (2/4) _184 _ 180 _ 147 __ 511 __ 64 _ 174 _ 84 __ 322 __ 833 __ 100 _ 109 _ 118 __327 ____ 1160

===========================================

Best Forecasts _ 

* tied for high score with one other forecaster __ ^ tied for high score with three others (Mar). 

(Bos and regions not entered yet)

 

FORECASTER __________ DCA_NYC_BOS _east_ ORD_ATL_IAH_ cent _c/e__ DEN_PHX_SEA _west _ total

wxdude64 _______________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 2 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 1 __ Jan

DonSutherland1 __________ 2^___ 2 ___ 0 ____ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1 ____2 ____ 1 ____ 1 __ Feb

___ Consensus ___________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0

wxallannj ________________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0

Tom ______________________ 1^___ 0 ___ 1 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 2 ___ 2 ___ 2 ___ 1 ___ 1*___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 1 __ Mar

so_whats_happening _____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 1*____ 0

RodneyS _________________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1*___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0

BKViking _________________ 1^___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0

hudsonvalley21 __________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1*___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 1*___ 1*____ 0

___ Normal ________________0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ____ 0

RJay ______________________ 1^___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1*___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___0 ___ 0 ____ 1 __ Apr

Scotty Lightning __________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0

Roger Smith _______________ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ____ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 3 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 2 ____ 0

Stormchaser Chuck _______ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ____ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1*___ 0 ____ 0

=========================

EXTREME FORECAST SCORING 

(second total in brackets adjusts for tied wins which are indicated by * in monthly logs only -- so far this has occurred twice, once for SEA in Feb and once for IAH in Apr.)

(in March, four shared a win for DCA shown by ^ -- this counts as 0.25 in the second bracketed total).

(wins for Normal are in addition to forecaster wins and do not replace them _ Normal is not charged with a loss _ would have done so in April for DEN)

So far, 26 of 36 forecasts qualify, 9 warmest and 17 coldest; Jan 0-5, Feb 4-4, Mar 2-2, Apr 3-6.

FORECASTER ____________ Jan _Feb _Mar _Apr __TOTAL

 

Roger Smith ______________ --- _ 1- 1 _ 2-0 _5-1___ 8-2

DonSutherland1 __________ --- _ 4-0*_ 1-0^_1-0___ 6-0 (4.75 - 0)

Tom ______________________ 1-0 _ 1-0 _ 2-0^_1-0___ 5-0 (4.25 - 0)

wxdude64 ________________1-0 _ 3-0*_ --- _ ---___ 4-0 (3.5 - 0)

RJay ______________________ --- _ --- _ 1-0^_ 1-0*__ 2-0 (0.75 - 0)

so_whats_happening ______ 1-0 _ --- _ --- _ 1-0 ___ 2-0

____ Normal _______________ --- _ 1-0 _ --- _ 1-0 ___ 2-0

Stormchaser Chuck _______ 2-1 _ --- _ --- _ --- ___ 2-1

RodneyS __________________ --- _ 1-0 _ --- _ --- ___ 1-0

hudsonvalley21 ___________ --- _ --- _ --- _ 1-1* ___1-1 (0.5 - 1)

BKViking __________________ --- _ --- _ 1-0^_ --- ___ 1-0 (0.25 - 0)

Scotty Lightning __________ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- ____ 0-0

wxallannj __________________--- _ --- _ 0-1 _ --- ____ 0-1

===============================

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Roger Smith

Roger Smith

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1 hour ago, bkviking said:

Jeez I blew it in April - didn’t foresee below normal even with solid forecast for blocking. 
much more cautious for May despite predicted breaking down of AO/NAO. 

Even so, there wasn't a lot of range in the scores and while the ranks have moved around a bit, everyone is pretty close together in the pack. 

I gave away a lot of points on IAH after scooping a lot everywhere else. But by my standards it was a big month, I didn't fall further behind. :)

 

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