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Saturday, March 19, 2022 Elevated Convection w/Severe Potential


weatherwiz
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Potent shortwave will be moving from the western Tennessee Valley/Ohio Valley region into the Northeast through the day Saturday along with some elevated mixed-layer air. While surface temperatures will be rather cool, the presence of very steep mid-level lapse rates (>7 C/KM) will contribute to MUCAPE values potentially exceeding 1,000 J/KG to go along with strong mid-level shear. While the surface will be rather stable, just above the inversion parcels will be freely able to rise and rise vigorously thanks to the steep lapse rates. Scattered showers and thunderstorms (including potential for multiple short-line segments) are likely to develop through the afternoon and evening. More robust updrafts will be capable of producing large hail. 

SEVERE SEASON IS HERE!!!!!!!!!

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I was just mentioning over in the other thread ...heh, I wasn't paying attention but this intriguing for March climate.

that's not just a spiked LI above a putrid BL that slices over for 20 minutes ahead of ribbon squall... The NAM ( notwithstanding..) is like sustaining 12 hours of regional LIs -2 to -4 over the whole area.

There's also a lot of more synoptic scale/mechanical forcing then coming in over top so i don't know what the metrics for this sort of thing is for getting it done.  i would almost imagine EOF0 and EOF1 type strafing across the area.  I'm more of an SBCAPE/'cap' recess guy.  

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2 hours ago, Cyclone-68 said:

We had a legit severe T-storm in February here a few years ago. Can’t ever remember that happening in my lifetime. Would love one in March but I doubt this impacts anyone near the coast…

Was that the thunder sleet storm? That was crazy, we got a quarter inch of sleet in about 10 minutes. 

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2 hours ago, Cyclone-68 said:

Wow six years ago?  I thought it was a bit more recent (for what I’m thinking about) maybe Scott can confirm as I remember him posting about it at the time too. 

12/30/2019

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2019/12/30/only-new-england-an-ice-storm-hail-storm-severe-thunderstorm-all-once/

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I normally don’t consider SNE as a severe weather place. 
 

But last July I got caught driving in a cluster of severe thunderstorms with fairly large hail and torrential rains. Near Pomfret CT. This is the only time I actually was worried I could drown because the storm seemed to just get worse no matter where I went, the whole area was low lying ground and waters started rising around me and the roads were flooding. 
 

I managed to find higher ground and the storm passed before any serious flooding took place but it taught me a lesson that this could happen to anyone young or old and once you are caught in it, it’s just a matter of luck and location.

In 2018 there was a serious flood in DSM IA that dropped 5 to 10 inches of rain in 60 to 90 minutes and people got killed, billions of dollars of damage. I never saw rain that heavy in my life, the edges of roofs became walls of waterfall. If you went out into it, it literally felt like standing under somebody pouring a pitcher of water onto you. I had just traded in a car to a dealership and when I went to visit them a few days later, I saw that my old car had been fully submerged among many others.

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