Drivers of Exceptional Coastal Warming in the Northeastern United States

[Vice-Regent]

21 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

They are actually becoming less common.  Not only that major hurricane hits north of NC are also less common than they used to be.  Most of those go into the Gulf or Florida.  When we do get hurricanes at our latitude now they are Cat 1 or just TS.

It's actually the opposite. Hurricane intensity is decreasing in the MDR and increasing in the mid-latitudes and is in line with climate models. Eventually the MDR will shift hundreds of miles north in our lifetime.

Also some of that apparent decrease in intensity can be attributed to the slower forward motion of mid-latitude cyclones in the summer. That was where 1938 derived most of it's impacts from. In any case whatever is happening is likely to be a temporary respite from the reality ahead of us.

[LibertyBell]

5 hours ago, Vice-Regent said:

It's actually the opposite. Hurricane intensity is decreasing in the MDR and increasing in the mid-latitudes and is in line with climate models. Eventually the MDR will shift hundreds of miles north in our lifetime.

Also some of that apparent decrease in intensity can be attributed to the slower forward motion of mid-latitude cyclones in the summer. That was where 1938 derived most of it's impacts from. In any case whatever is happening is likely to be a temporary respite from the reality ahead of us.

I wonder when we'll see a repeat of what happened in the 1950s....that was some decade for east coast hurricanes.

[StormchaserChuck!]

I'm skeptical because the US didn't get hit by a hurricane for 11 years after Katrina in 2005. I imagine the SE, US hurricane drought should first be beaten by NE, US hits or a higher probability/tendency. 

[Vice-Regent]

On 5/24/2022 at 7:58 PM, LibertyBell said:

I wonder when we'll see a repeat of what happened in the 1950s....that was some decade for east coast hurricanes.

It may not ever happen again because of the extreme changes in Rosby Wave patterns in the summer. Another possibility is our Hurricane Season could lengthen to be year-around and open the door to 1938s again.