Chreeyiss Posted March 19, 2022 Share Posted March 19, 2022 Looks like Tuesday has taken the title of biggest day instead of Monday, but Monday has very high potential too. The SRH values in north and central Texas Monday afternoon are absurd. Like 500-750m2/s2. However, if temps stay mid 60s or below during the afternoon across this area, the full potential probably won’t be realized Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted March 19, 2022 Author Share Posted March 19, 2022 The Day 4 discussion is really scary for Mississippi from the SPC, but this Model sounding over SE Mississippi justifies the worry from the SPC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 19, 2022 Share Posted March 19, 2022 40 minutes ago, Chreeyiss said: Looks like Tuesday has taken the title of biggest day instead of Monday, but Monday has very high potential too. The SRH values in north and central Texas Monday afternoon are absurd. Like 500-750m2/s2. However, if temps stay mid 60s or below during the afternoon across this area, the full potential probably won’t be realized Won't need temps to get too warm for a tornadic weather in this setup, although it would keep the hail and damaging wind threat in check. For DFW specifically, the key is going to be how quickly the shortwave moves eastward. Same thing goes if the morning round of storms ends up overachieving, which would put the Metroplex under the influence of an outflow bubble. These factors would displace the LLJ (thus inflow of moisture / unstable air) further east. The NAM has been closest to a worst case scenario, but it's also kind of on its own. Most other models are a bit more progressive with the shortwave and bullish with the coverage of morning storms, focusing the severe threat more so towards East Louisiana and East Central TX. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted March 19, 2022 Share Posted March 19, 2022 45 minutes ago, Chreeyiss said: Looks like Tuesday has taken the title of biggest day instead of Monday, but Monday has very high potential too. The SRH values in north and central Texas Monday afternoon are absurd. Like 500-750m2/s2. However, if temps stay mid 60s or below during the afternoon across this area, the full potential probably won’t be realized I like Monday the most right now in terms of discrete supercells producing tornadoes. Tuesday looks messy storm mode wise and we've seen time and time again setups that didn't reach their full potential due to that, that being said we've also seen significant outbreaks from that same mixed mode. Just in terms of discrete potential I like Monday more. Going for Tuesday, I have seen a 4/13/19 comparison being thrown around and gotta say that's what I think about when I see this setup. Mixed mode tornado outbreak from East Texas to AL. Suffered some things like mixed storm mode that limited its full potential too given the parameter space. Just my unprofessional opinion though. POTENTIAL is definitely there for something high end either of those 2 days or both, though. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 19, 2022 Share Posted March 19, 2022 26 minutes ago, Powerball said: Won't need temps to get too warm for a tornadic weather in this setup, although it would keep the hail and damaging wind threat in check. For DFW specifically, the key is going to be how quickly the shortwave moves eastward. Same thing goes if the morning round of storms ends up overachieving, which would put the Metroplex under the influence of an outflow bubble. These factors would displace the LLJ (thus inflow of moisture / unstable air) further east. The NAM has been closest to a worst case scenario, but it's also kind of on its own. Most other models are a bit more progressive with the shortwave and bullish with the coverage of morning storms, focusing the severe threat more so towards East Louisiana and East Central TX. I will add the caveat, the 06z and 12z GFS have gradually trended towards a NAM-like solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tallis Rockwell Posted March 19, 2022 Share Posted March 19, 2022 NAM showing insane levels of Helicity over Northern LA... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted March 19, 2022 Author Share Posted March 19, 2022 2 hours ago, Tallis Rockwell said: NAM showing insane levels of Helicity over Northern LA... This is a contaminated sounding, note the red bars shooting off to the right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WishingForWarmWeather Posted March 19, 2022 Share Posted March 19, 2022 On 3/18/2022 at 3:29 PM, Powerball said: @WishingForWarmWeather Love your username! Thank you! I had put it as that when I was living in Oklahoma, there were so many ice and snow storms the one winter and all I could do was wish for some warmer weather. After that, I moved to Texas and answered my own prayers for warm weather, haha. Only two seasons there - summer and football. Now I'm in Tennessee with all 4 seasons, including snow again! Back to wishing for the warm weather. But, it is nice to have fall again! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted March 19, 2022 Author Share Posted March 19, 2022 1 minute ago, WishingForWarmWeather said: Thank you! I had put it as that when I was living in Oklahoma, there were so many ice and snow storms the one winter and all I could do was wish for some warmer weather. After that, I moved to Texas and answered my own prayers for warm weather, haha. Only two seasons there - summer and football. Now I'm in Tennessee with all 4 seasons, including snow again! Back to wishing for the warm weather. But, it is nice to have fall again! I wished you stayed in Oklahoma . . . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tallis Rockwell Posted March 19, 2022 Share Posted March 19, 2022 14 minutes ago, Iceresistance said: This is a contaminated sounding, note the red bars shooting off to the right. Thank you. I didn't know. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 19, 2022 Share Posted March 19, 2022 8 minutes ago, Tallis Rockwell said: Thank you. I didn't know. Contamination in that specific sounding aside, other soundings from the Mississippi Delta region show parameters roughly as extreme. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WishingForWarmWeather Posted March 20, 2022 Share Posted March 20, 2022 4 hours ago, Iceresistance said: I wished you stayed in Oklahoma . . . Why is that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 20, 2022 Share Posted March 20, 2022 With the 00z runs, we're now getting into the time frame for the hi-res models which should hopefully aid in predictability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 20, 2022 Share Posted March 20, 2022 Hmmm, not sure what to think about that 00z NAM. Definitely some changes with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted March 20, 2022 Author Share Posted March 20, 2022 56 minutes ago, WishingForWarmWeather said: Why is that? You can experience the craziest weather (My Grandmother had to use the AC, then the Heater during the same day), have mostly rural views, & most of the time, you can see tornadoes coming from miles away. And also, if you lived in Oklahoma long enough, your gut will tell you if really nasty storms are coming 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted March 20, 2022 Author Share Posted March 20, 2022 My gosh, the 0z HRRR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxSynopsisDavid Posted March 20, 2022 Share Posted March 20, 2022 11 hours ago, Chreeyiss said: Looks like Tuesday has taken the title of biggest day instead of Monday, but Monday has very high potential too. The SRH values in north and central Texas Monday afternoon are absurd. Like 500-750m2/s2. However, if temps stay mid 60s or below during the afternoon across this area, the full potential probably won’t be realized Disagree with temps. Your assumption applies to a high cape/low shear environment. You don’t need temps higher than the 60’s with high shear/low cape setups. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chreeyiss Posted March 20, 2022 Share Posted March 20, 2022 7 minutes ago, WxSynopsisDavid said: Disagree with temps. Your assumption applies to a high cape/low shear environment. You don’t need temps higher than the 60’s with high shear/low cape setups. I’m not broad brushing that as rule in general, but for this particular setup, from what I’ve seen on the models, the cap looks like it prevents surface based instability from being fully utilized unless temps exceed about 66 degrees. I might be wrong, but it looks like that’s the main differentiator between central Texas and points further north in DFW where the shear profiles are at least as extreme. If I’m wrong on this though, I would love to learn more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxSynopsisDavid Posted March 20, 2022 Share Posted March 20, 2022 7 hours ago, Chreeyiss said: I’m not broad brushing that as rule in general, but for this particular setup, from what I’ve seen on the models, the cap looks like it prevents surface based instability from being fully utilized unless temps exceed about 66 degrees. I might be wrong, but it looks like that’s the main differentiator between central Texas and points further north in DFW where the shear profiles are at least as extreme. If I’m wrong on this though, I would love to learn more. In a high shear/low cape environment, you don’t get substantial surface based instability anyways. That’s why the environment is identified as a high shear/low cape environment. Cape is low, meaning that surface based instability is lacking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted March 20, 2022 Author Share Posted March 20, 2022 Rare Moderate risk in place for Mississippi & Louisiana on the D3 Outlook 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted March 20, 2022 Author Share Posted March 20, 2022 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
METALSTORM Posted March 20, 2022 Share Posted March 20, 2022 I started a thread in the Southeastern sub. Whether it gets any traction over there is another story. I wonder if MS and AL should be adopted by the Central forum lol. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 20, 2022 Share Posted March 20, 2022 10 minutes ago, METALSTORM said: I started a thread in the Southeastern sub. Whether it gets any traction over there is another story. I wonder if MS and AL should be adopted by the Central forum lol. That's probably because the MS/AL folks also post over at SouthernWX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tallis Rockwell Posted March 20, 2022 Share Posted March 20, 2022 Models have been trending for more intense convection and a more favorable setup over SE TX. 10% Sig tornado risk for Houston, a nocturnal outbreak in a major metropolitan area is has some scary potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted March 20, 2022 Share Posted March 20, 2022 I started a thread in the Southeastern sub. Whether it gets any traction over there is another story. I wonder if MS and AL should be adopted by the Central forum lol.If it's not in NC/SC or GA they usually could care less, half the time it ends up in another forum usually anyway. Sent from my SM-S901U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted March 20, 2022 Author Share Posted March 20, 2022 Something is with the NAM model, it keeps trending North with the STP & Supercell composite. Found this sounding west of DFW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 20, 2022 Share Posted March 20, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 20, 2022 Share Posted March 20, 2022 17 minutes ago, Iceresistance said: Something is with the NAM model, it keeps trending North with the STP & Supercell composite. Found this sounding west of DFW That's capped (albeit weak) and the best forcing/dynamics are well off to the east by that point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted March 20, 2022 Author Share Posted March 20, 2022 Slight risk expanded to DFW for Tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 20, 2022 Share Posted March 20, 2022 FWD has cleaned up the wording in their grids, and added a heavy rainfall mention with 1-2" of precipitation tomorrow. I know extreme drought conditions are ongoing, but they did mention the possibility of a Flash Flood Watch in their morning discussion. We'll see if they isssue one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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