Chinook Posted March 20, 2022 Share Posted March 20, 2022 I am thinking maybe the chances for numerous tornadoes may get going at 00z-02z, meaning that nighttime tornadoes could be a threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 20, 2022 Share Posted March 20, 2022 18z RAP also has a similar sounding to the 12z NAM for DFW Monday evening. But again, still a weak cap with the best forcing/dynamics just to the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 20, 2022 Share Posted March 20, 2022 Definitely have concerns that the I-35 corridor in central/S TX including the Austin/Round Rock and San Antonio metros will be targeted tomorrow around rush hour, which is already hectic at the best of times. Many of the afternoon CAM runs indicate the potential for supercells initiating off the Edwards Plateau with very large hail and tornadoes given the forecast soundings around that time. This isn't exactly an area known for potent synoptic severe weather events, either. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted March 20, 2022 Share Posted March 20, 2022 29 minutes ago, andyhb said: Definitely have concerns that the I-35 corridor in central/S TX including the Austin/Round Rock and San Antonio metros will be targeted tomorrow around rush hour, which is already hectic at the best of times. Many of the afternoon CAM runs indicate the potential for supercells initiating off the Edwards Plateau with very large hail and tornadoes given the forecast soundings around that time. This isn't exactly an area known for potent synoptic severe weather events, either. Agreed, this is quite a look for tomorrow afternoon/evening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CryHavoc Posted March 20, 2022 Share Posted March 20, 2022 Surprised this thread isn't busier considering it's the first outbreak potential in the new "official" tornado season. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted March 20, 2022 Share Posted March 20, 2022 4 minutes ago, CryHavoc said: Surprised this thread isn't busier considering it's the first outbreak potential in the new "official" tornado season. Decline of the internet forum and all that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 20, 2022 Share Posted March 20, 2022 44 minutes ago, CryHavoc said: Surprised this thread isn't busier considering it's the first outbreak potential in the new "official" tornado season. At least for this sub, it's yet another messy setup. Not to mention, a lot of the regular posters here are in DFW, which is NW of the highest risk area. 2022 definitely seems to be starting right where 2021 left off, though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sydney Claridge Posted March 20, 2022 Share Posted March 20, 2022 2 hours ago, MattPetrulli said: Agreed, this is quite a look for tomorrow afternoon/evening The HRRR is definitely bullish, like it almost always is. That said, this particular run (18z) does get some pretty substantial CAPE and moisture into DFW, interestingly enough. I would feel concerned about severe thunderstorm potential here if it verified, provided that a storm could take advantage of the ingredients in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted March 20, 2022 Author Share Posted March 20, 2022 1 hour ago, cheese007 said: Decline of the internet forum and all that I don't think that, today is Sunday & it's usually the lowest number online per day average. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted March 21, 2022 Author Share Posted March 21, 2022 This is the largest 90% STP contour I've ever seen! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 21, 2022 Share Posted March 21, 2022 00z HRRR is really ominous for DFW tomorrow evening, including a PDS Tornado sounding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted March 21, 2022 Author Share Posted March 21, 2022 16 minutes ago, Powerball said: 00z HRRR is really ominous for DFW tomorrow evening, including a PDS Tornado sounding. Can I see a photo for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted March 21, 2022 Share Posted March 21, 2022 The 0z HRRR is well.... Bad.... Sent from my SM-S901U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted March 21, 2022 Share Posted March 21, 2022 . Sent from my SM-S901U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted March 21, 2022 Author Share Posted March 21, 2022 Just now, SmokeEater said: . Sent from my SM-S901U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 21, 2022 Share Posted March 21, 2022 6 minutes ago, Iceresistance said: Can I see a photo for that. The radar's already been posted above. Here's the sounding: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted March 21, 2022 Author Share Posted March 21, 2022 1 minute ago, Powerball said: The radar's already been posted above. Here's the sounding: The sounding may be contaminated, but the storms there may recommend a Enhanced risk for DFW if the other Mesoscale models follow suit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormdragonwx Posted March 21, 2022 Share Posted March 21, 2022 Not to discount the risk as is but if that CA gets closer to 90 then I'd be very concerned for you folks down there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhirlingWx Posted March 21, 2022 Share Posted March 21, 2022 49 minutes ago, Powerball said: 00z HRRR is really ominous for DFW tomorrow evening, including a PDS Tornado sounding. Yeah this definitely caught my attention. Just don't like how it's trending up for us and how the general threat is expected to unfold along the I-35 corridor during rush hour 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted March 21, 2022 Author Share Posted March 21, 2022 3 minutes ago, TexMexWx said: Yeah this definitely caught my attention. Just don't like how it's trending up for us and how the general threat is expected to unfold along the I-35 corridor during rush hour It's the Nightmare Scenario, I'm thinking that Schools will go virtual because of this, on the May 2019 High Risk Day, my School shut down because they don't want a Moore 2013 Repeat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WishingForWarmWeather Posted March 21, 2022 Share Posted March 21, 2022 On 3/19/2022 at 9:29 PM, Iceresistance said: You can experience the craziest weather (My Grandmother had to use the AC, then the Heater during the same day), have mostly rural views, & most of the time, you can see tornadoes coming from miles away. And also, if you lived in Oklahoma long enough, your gut will tell you if really nasty storms are coming Yeah, you're not lying. I lived there for 2 years, 8 seasons. The one summer I was there was the hottest summer on record of any city since they began keeping record (at least that is what all of the newspapers and meteorologists said). Then in the spring, I experienced 2 different tornados. One displaced me from my home, the other directly hit a hospital I was in with my 2 year old daughter getting her tonsils removed. Destroyed my car as well with baseball sized hail. Then, the winter of that same insane year came with massive ice storms, 3 different ones, and a huge blizzard. That was the 2nd year of me living there...the moment my lease was up I got the hell out of there. It was too wild for me. But, I definitely took that experience of the gut feeling with me. It'll never leave. Have you lived in OK before Edit to say that I lived in Norman and then moved to Moore. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted March 21, 2022 Share Posted March 21, 2022 Along with 00z HRRR, pretty good support from HREF ensemble of discrete sups tomorrow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brianc33710 Posted March 21, 2022 Share Posted March 21, 2022 6 hours ago, Iceresistance said: I don't think that, today is Sunday & it's usually the lowest number online per day average. NCAA BB tourney too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brianc33710 Posted March 21, 2022 Share Posted March 21, 2022 4 hours ago, Iceresistance said: This is the largest 90% STP contour I've ever seen! That's in the center of the Day 2 Moderate Risk & Day 2 Mod Risks are impressive in their own right. I guess we'll see if SPC upgrades to High closer to Tue & expands the other zones. Tuscaloosa is in Enhanced but there's a rapid reduction to Marginal in Birmingham. They're not sure how far north the warmth & instability reaches. I'm sure we'll be the bullseye later in the season though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted March 21, 2022 Share Posted March 21, 2022 Day 1 enhanced with a large 10% hatched tor. Sent from my SM-S901U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormdragonwx Posted March 21, 2022 Share Posted March 21, 2022 Moderate Risk maintained on the new D2 w/15% hatched tornado risk, I believe this is one of the first few D2 outlooks to feature such a high tornado risk since they started doing D2 tornado risk maps? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 21, 2022 Share Posted March 21, 2022 Day 1 Enchanced Riak Area was expanded just far enough NW to technically include Fort Worth and Dallas proper, but they stoped just short of including the entire Metroplex. And this was mainly for the wind threat. Location of other probabilities didn't really change, expect the hail threat area taking a bit more of a NW to SE orientation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 21, 2022 Share Posted March 21, 2022 6 hours ago, Powerball said: 00z HRRR is really ominous for DFW tomorrow evening, including a PDS Tornado sounding. Parameter-wise and synoptically, 00z NAM was similar to the 00z HRRR. The big difference that the NAM maintain a relatively stout cap, which keeps convective coverage/intensity in check. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted March 21, 2022 Share Posted March 21, 2022 2 hours ago, Powerball said: Parameter-wise and synoptically, 00z NAM was similar to the 00z HRRR. The big difference that the NAM maintain a relatively stout cap, which keeps convective coverage/intensity in check. I’m not sure the cap is very strong. If you look at the 00z and 06z 3km NAM, they both show cellular convection along the Dallas - Round Rock corridor. If anything, it’s more concerning that the NAM is showing more isolated convection, as it’s the case that many of these setups get junky fast with too much convection. That doesn’t seem to be the case here. The only slight limiting factor may be modest low-level lapse rates, due in part to early precipitation. Still, even with 0-3km lapse rates only near 6 C/km, the quality of the boundary layer moisture profile supports large 0-3km MLCAPE, on the order of 100-200 J/kg. This, along with strong wind profiles supports a significant tornado threat As echoed before, this is not exactly a common occurrence for a synoptic severe weather outbreak, this far south. HRRR looks nasty with intense, semi discrete convection. NAM is nasty with a weaker looking broken band of convection within a volatile parameter space. Either scenario isn’t good (if you don’t like damaging thunderstorms). 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoboLeader1 Posted March 21, 2022 Share Posted March 21, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now