Iceresistance Posted March 17, 2022 Share Posted March 17, 2022 Thursday, March 17th, 2022 could be a Triple Point event for Oklahoma & eventually Texas. (HRRR has Texas somewhat capped, but Oklahoma gets the Severe Weather breakout at the Triple Point) Next Monday, March 21st, 2022 has some really high potential for Central, Southern, & Eastern Texas (Oklahoma may get some of the action if the Warm Front moves farther north than expected), the Day 6 Discussion had some really strong wording, including 2+ Inch Hail & Tornadoes. Quote By Monday/Day 6, as the next upper trough shifts into the central and southern Plains, an evolving cold front is forecast to cross the western half of Texas. Strong southeasterly low-level flow will advect a moist Gulf airmass into Texas, contributing to afternoon destabilization. Meanwhile, as a strong (100 kt) southwesterly mid-level jet associated with the upper system overspreads the southern Plains atop the low-level southeasterlies, shear quite favorable for supercells is expected. As convection develops near and ahead of the cold front, evolution of locally intense/severe storms -- including potential for very large hail and tornadoes -- is expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 17, 2022 Share Posted March 17, 2022 Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0417 AM CDT Thu Mar 17 2022 Valid 201200Z - 251200Z ...DISCUSSION... Models continue to depict likelihood for a multi-day -- and potentially widespread -- severe weather episode across the south-central and southeastern U.S. through the first part of next week. Deterministic global models, as well as both GEFS and ECMWF ensemble means, are in good agreement with pattern evolution through Day 6 and into Day 7, lending confidence to the evolving scenario. Day 4/Sunday, a digging upper trough will shift across the western U.S., with a closed low expected to evolve over New Mexico vicinity overnight. Low-level moisture will be returning into the southern Plains at this point, but in an incomplete manner, and thus any risk for severe weather late Sunday night/Monday morning should remain rather low, and likely confined primarily to hail with elevated overnight storms. By Day 5/Monday, as the upper low moves northeastward across New Mexico toward the High Plains, a surface low is forecast to evolve over western Texas, and move toward western Oklahoma. As this occurs, continued advection of high theta-e Gulf air into roughly the eastern half of Texas will occur ahead of an advancing cold front. As the airmass diurnally destabilizes, an increase in storm coverage an intensity is expected. With very strong southwesterly/south-southwesterly flow aloft, atop south-southeasterlies at low levels, deep-layer shear will favor supercells, along with sufficient low-level shear to support potential for tornadoes -- a few possibly strong. Large hail and damaging winds are also expected. As the upper system makes only slow eastward progress Day 6/Tuesday, another day of severe weather is expected, displaced somewhat to the east as the surface front progresses. Continued influx of Gulf moisture into the warm sector will permit ample CAPE to develop, while strong low-level and deep-layer shear will again be present across the warm sector. This will again favor an all-hazards severe event, including tornado potential, that will continue through the evening and into the overnight period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted March 17, 2022 Author Share Posted March 17, 2022 A rare day 5 ENHANCED risk has been issued for Central & Eastern Texas for Next Monday, when was the last time this happened? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CryHavoc Posted March 17, 2022 Share Posted March 17, 2022 Might get a little action today as well, but the big event is Monday. Waco looks to be about ground zero for the action. I honestly don't remember the last time I've seen Day 5 ENH. I believe it's been at least a few years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted March 17, 2022 Share Posted March 17, 2022 Outside this subforum but far south AL/MS and the western FL panhandle have a Day 2 ENH with a 10% hatched for sigTors tomorrow (3-18). Something worth watching Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 17, 2022 Share Posted March 17, 2022 12z runs are a bit more progressive with the trough, and have shifted the threat more into East TX and Western LA. We'll see if that's the start of a trend, although models have a tendency to be too quick with cut off ULLs. On a mesoscale level, past history suggests that when you have such a messy cloud cover/precipitation activity early in the day (as the models are depicting for Monday morning), the better risk areas are outflow driven and forced further to the SE than the synoptic setup would suggest So my preliminary thinking is that the Metroplex may yet again avoid the more significant activity. Today being a near-miss to the NE and Monday being a near-miss to the SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted March 17, 2022 Share Posted March 17, 2022 Definitely "feels" like a bad weather day outside. Breezy, sunny, and warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted March 17, 2022 Share Posted March 17, 2022 SEL8 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 48 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 355 PM CDT Thu Mar 17 2022 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Central and Southern Oklahoma Northcentral Texas * Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 355 PM until 1100 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms are expected to develop and move northeast through this evening, with a risk for large hail and damaging thunderstorm gusts. An isolated report of very large hail will also be possible, in addition to the potential for a tornado or two. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 80 statute miles north and south of a line from 15 miles north of Fort Sill OK to 25 miles south southeast of Mcalester OK. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 22035. ...Bunting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 17, 2022 Share Posted March 17, 2022 A decent looking CU field has formed along a line out near Eastland down to Brownwood. If there's any initiation this far south (still questionable), that's where it would be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 17, 2022 Share Posted March 17, 2022 50 minutes ago, Powerball said: A decent looking CU field has formed along a line out near Eastland down to Brownwood. If there's any initiation this far south (still questionable), that's where it would be. Seeing returns starting to blossom out of that CU field and the cap now looking pretty weak, I'm now feeling a bit more optimistic about activity in the Metroplex 1-2 hours from now. That said, depending on the extent of southward development, any activity may still skirt by to the NW of the heart of DFW as it rotates around the shortwave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 17, 2022 Share Posted March 17, 2022 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0555 PM CDT Thu Mar 17 2022 Areas affected...North TX Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 48... Valid 172255Z - 180030Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 48 continues. SUMMARY...A few strong to severe thunderstorms may develop across North TX over the next several hours. DISCUSSION...Recent visible satellite imagery shows increasingly agitated cumulus along the dryline moving into north TX. Forecast soundings in much of this region continue to show warm temperatures aloft, supporting convective inhibition. Most recent mesoanalysis estimates MLCIN is around -25 to -50 J/kg. Recent ACARS soundings from DAL also continue to show capping, with MLCIN around -30 to -35 J/kg. Even so, convergence along the boundary is quite strong and moisture advection continue in the downstream environment. Dewpoints have increased along the I-35 corridor 3-4 degrees over the past 3 hours. Given these improving thermodynamics and persistent low-level convergence, the potential exists for a few deeper, more sustained updrafts. Wind profiles show strong low-level veering but a pronounced weakness in the mid-levels. As a result, storm organization will likely be somewhat limited. Even so, a few strong to severe storms are possible and watch expansion southward may need to be considered soon. ..Mosier.. 03/17/2022 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN... LAT...LON 32549661 32149693 31979742 32049779 32289802 32649800 32729801 33239798 33699796 33859768 33839718 33769677 33599660 33289651 32549661 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sydney Claridge Posted March 17, 2022 Share Posted March 17, 2022 The storms around DFW seem to be struggling to initiate into stronger cells; a local met with NBC 5 said it was because of the cap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 17, 2022 Share Posted March 17, 2022 13 minutes ago, BrandonC_TX said: The storms around DFW seem to be struggling to initiate into stronger cells; a local met with NBC 5 said it was because of the cap. Yep. It was close, but the pereistent stratuocumulus field since early afternoon has kept surface temps in check. If anything, per the latest SPC mesoanalysis, the cap has strengthened a bit more. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sydney Claridge Posted March 18, 2022 Share Posted March 18, 2022 46 minutes ago, Powerball said: Yep. It was close, but the pereistent stratuocumulus field since early afternoon has kept surface temps in check. If anything, per the latest SPC mesoanalysis, the cap has strengthened a bit more. That said, it seems like the radar return intensity over Irving and The Colony has increased slightly. If any storm cell in Texas is going to try to take a shot at turning severe, that tail end storm over I-35E/I-635 probably has the best shot at doing that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 18, 2022 Share Posted March 18, 2022 3 minutes ago, BrandonC_TX said: That said, it seems like the radar return intensity over Irving and The Colony has increased slightly. If any storm cell in Texas is going to try to take a shot at turning severe, that tail end storm over I-35E/I-635 probably has the best shot at doing that. Storms have a lot more lightning with them than the detector lets on, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sydney Claridge Posted March 18, 2022 Share Posted March 18, 2022 Looks like DFW has a second round of storms forming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sydney Claridge Posted March 18, 2022 Share Posted March 18, 2022 25 minutes ago, BrandonC_TX said: Looks like DFW has a second round of storms forming. For a moment there it looked like that storm around Azle was really trying to intensify, and it looks a bit weaker now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted March 18, 2022 Share Posted March 18, 2022 Got another D5 enhanced to go along with yesterday's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 18, 2022 Share Posted March 18, 2022 The NAM is notably slower with the system on Monday, FWIW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted March 18, 2022 Author Share Posted March 18, 2022 Got .5 inch of rain from last night's storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted March 18, 2022 Share Posted March 18, 2022 The modeled environments looked pretty ominous at one point (at least on the GFS, and it was pretty consistent with that for quite a few runs) but have downtrended a bit as the event gets closer and I wouldn't say support a high risk type setup at this juncture. Not to say they couldn't trend back in the other direction. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chreeyiss Posted March 18, 2022 Share Posted March 18, 2022 37 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said: The modeled environments looked pretty ominous at one point (at least on the GFS, and it was pretty consistent with that for quite a few runs) but have downtrended a bit as the event gets closer and I wouldn't say support a high risk type setup at this juncture. Not to say they couldn't trend back in the other direction. Agreed, there doesn't seem to be as much of an overlap between that extremely favorable shear and sufficient instability on these more recent runs. Looks more like a broad brushed slight with a pocket of enhanced in central Texas to me, if these trends hold. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted March 18, 2022 Author Share Posted March 18, 2022 7 minutes ago, Chreeyiss said: Agreed, there doesn't seem to be as much of an overlap between that extremely favorable shear and sufficient instability on these more recent runs. Looks more like a broad brushed slight with a pocket of enhanced in central Texas to me, if these trends hold. Southern & Eastern Texas is in western Dixie Alley & is really close to the GoM, it could really trend towards a more dangerous setup in the next few days, that's why that a high risk is currently possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargers09 Posted March 18, 2022 Share Posted March 18, 2022 KEWX (Austin/San Antonio): .LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)... As the longwave trough moves into the Rockies, cyclogenesis on the High Plains will quickly strengthen, resulting in a strong response of southerly return flow. This will bring a big change in boundary layer humidity by Sunday afternoon. A short wave trough passing through the longwave trough will eject into Texas Sunday night. When combined with the typical strengthening of the diurnal low-level jet, there are good chances for elevated convection early over our area. CAPE values are moderate in the 750-1000 J/kg range, but mid level lapse rates should support hail. In addition, low level shear is quite strong, especially in the framework of 0-1 or 0-3 km SRH of 200-300 m2/s2. So if any storms can become rooted to the surface, there could be an overnight/early morning tornado threat. The prospects for convection later in the day on Monday will hinge on what occurs earlier in the day. But the projection of the initial storms waning and leaving a minimally disturbed boundary layer leads to anticipation of the cold front/dry line forcing a line of severe, linear convection Monday afternoon to late evening. These storms would have less instability and shear, but be rooted at the surface, and potentially be more of a damaging wind and tornado threat. https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=EWX&issuedby=EWX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 18, 2022 Share Posted March 18, 2022 @WishingForWarmWeather Love your username! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted March 18, 2022 Author Share Posted March 18, 2022 KFOR has 'Heavy Rainfall' possible for Next Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 18, 2022 Share Posted March 18, 2022 Welp, the 18z NAM trended towards the faster GFS solution... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CryHavoc Posted March 19, 2022 Share Posted March 19, 2022 Day 3 Enhanced is up. SPC AC 190729 Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Sat Mar 19 2022 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN TEXAS AND INTO WESTERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms appear likely to occur across an area centered over eastern Texas and into western Louisiana on Monday. ...Synopsis... A large/strong upper trough is forecast to emerge from the western U.S. into the Plains Monday, with strong ridging flanking the trough to both the west and east. As an upper low at the base of the trough moves out of New Mexico and into the Texas South Plains/Panhandle region through the afternoon, a surface low is forecast to move toward western North Texas through the afternoon. Ahead of an advancing/trailing cold front, a preceding dryline should mix eastward into central Texas during the afternoon. Overnight, an elongated low should be crossing the eastern Kansas/eastern Oklahoma vicinity, with the cold front crossing East Texas through the latter stages of the period. ...Portions of central Texas eastward to western Louisiana... Strong southeasterly/southerly low-level flow is forecast across the southern Plains early Monday, ahead of the advancing upper low. Strong warm/moist advection associated with the southerlies, atop a largely-still-stable boundary layer, will support an expansion of elevated thunderstorms across central Texas and Oklahoma through the morning hours. This blossoming of precipitation complicates the forecast for later in the day, casting uncertainty onto the degree of surface-based CAPE which may develop -- particularly with northward extent. However, with persistent southerlies advecting Gulf moisture northward, gradual south-to-north destabilization of the boundary layer is expected -- at least across east-central portions of Texas. By afternoon, potential for surface-based storm development is evident near advancing dryline across central Texas. Meanwhile farther east, storms along the southern portion of the larger/ongoing area of convection should also become surface-based with time. Strong/increasing flow with height, combined with substantial veering through the lowest 3km, will provide shear quite favorable for supercells. As such, along with potential for large hail with developing central Texas storms, risk for tornadoes should increase through the afternoon farther east. Through the evening and into the overnight hours, the favorably moist/modestly unstable airmass should expand eastward across the Sabine River into Louisiana. With very strong deep-layer shear continuing, risk for tornadoes -- a couple which may be strong -- should persist across East Texas and into Louisiana through the end of the period. ..Goss.. 03/19/2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted March 19, 2022 Share Posted March 19, 2022 In addition to the frighteningly large D3 hatched, the D4 wording is pretty gnarly as well. Already talk of SigTors: ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 190900 SPC AC 190900 Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Sat Mar 19 2022 Valid 221200Z - 271200Z ...SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK POSSIBLE ON D4/TUE... ...DISCUSSION... Latest deterministic and ensemble runs of the medium-range global models continue to depict likelihood of a continuation of potentially substantial severe-weather event across the central Gulf Coast states Tuesday and into Wednesday. This includes a reasonable probability of a regional-type tornado outbreak centered over central and southern Mississippi for Tuesday. As strong upper low/trough over the central and southern Plains region shifts gradually eastward, a belt of very strong mid- and upper-level southwesterlies will likely extend from east Texas across the Tennessee Valley, atop a 60 kt southerly low-level jet. The resulting/anticipated degree of veering and increasing flow with height falls within high-end parameter space for significant tornadoes. In addition, the strong low-level southerlies will persistently advect high theta-e Gulf air (dewpoints averaging in the upper 60s) northward into the pre-frontal warm sector, which -- despite limited heating due to cloud cover and potentially ongoing convection in some areas -- will combine with modestly steep mid-level lapse rates to yield what should prove to be ample CAPE at least as far north as central Mississippi, and later central Alabama. Overall, given very strong shear, the strength of the upper system, and the Gulf warm sector expected inland, a high-end environment appears likely to exist across a geographically-focused area centered over the central Gulf Coast states, supporting potential for a substantial outbreak of severe/supercell storms. Severe weather potential will likely continue into Wednesday, though the upper system appears likely to become somewhat sheared/elongated as the upper low/jet streak shift northeastward across the Ohio Valley, while secondary energy digs southward across the southern Rockies and into northern Mexico. Thus, while an amply moist/unstable environment and still-strong shear will exist across southeastern Alabama/southwestern Georgia/the Florida Panhandle, and possibly expanding during the day into parts of South Carolina supporting continued potential for severe storms, the risk will be lesser than Tuesday's event, and should diminish with time into the evening hours. Still, all-hazards severe weather will be a possibility through the first half of the period across this portion of the Southeast. By Thursday, models begin to diverge in terms of pattern evolution; while the cold front may remain onshore, prior to advancing into the western Atlantic, prospects for severe weather remain questionable, and thus no outlook area will be issued at this time. Once the front moves offshore overnight Thursday, as the upper system shifts eastward, severe-weather potential should end over the Southeast. With large-scale ridging to gradually expand across the U.S. into the weekend, severe weather potential appears minimal a this time. ..Goss.. 03/19/2022 CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted March 19, 2022 Author Share Posted March 19, 2022 3 hours ago, cheese007 said: In addition to the frighteningly large D3 hatched, the D4 wording is pretty gnarly as well. Already talk of SigTors: I've seen bigger than that 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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