Winter 2022-2023 Conjecture

[It's Always Sunny]

I have my sources for composites but with the ever evolving internet there may be something else out there...having said that, what do you use for SSTa composites? I currently use https://psl.noaa.gov/data/composites/day/ but not sure if there is something better out there. I know I can break out coding and do it that way but looking for something more convenient. Thanks!

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, It's Always Sunny said:

I have my sources for composites but with the ever evolving internet there may be something else out there...having said that, what do you use for SSTa composites? I currently use https://psl.noaa.gov/data/composites/day/ but not sure if there is something better out there. I know I can break out coding and do it that way but looking for something more convenient. Thanks!

I use that site.  I may have another one in my list of links, not sure. I'll begin sorting through all of that shortly when I begin my outlook crucible.

[George001]

Interesting looks like we are in unprecedented territory. The La Niña isn’t all that strong but the MEI index is going ballistic.

[George001]

The MEI index of -2.2 for the June July period is reaching record territory. The only time it was lower was during the strong La Niña in 2010-2011. This event is forecast to be much different, with the CFSv2 having us at moderate La Niña (-1) in November, but Enso neutral in January (0). It doesn’t say anything about the MEI, but I would think that would rapidly decline as well. With how sharp the models are saying the rise in temp in the enso 3.4 region will be, if that is real we may even see something like going from La Niña in December to warm neutral or weak Nino by Feb. I’ve never heard of something like that happening, a La Niña the first half of winter an El Niño the 2nd half (some of the more aggressive guidance has that, most dont quite get to nino territory though). Other guidance is hinting at this rapid weakening of the Nina as well so it probably is real to an extent.

[CoastalWx]

Doesn't seem like Nina will weaken much yet given the ice box below the surface. But also note that massive warm anomaly just west of the dateline.

 

[ORH_wxman]

36 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Doesn't seem like Nina will weaken much yet given the ice box below the surface. But also note that massive warm anomaly just west of the dateline.

 

That's a good look though at least....we want the western region to warm while eastern region cools.

 

That warm pool out west in the subsurface is probably the fuel for El Nino in 2023-2024....

[It's Always Sunny]

28 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

That's a good look though at least....we want the western region to warm while eastern region cools.

 

That warm pool out west in the subsurface is probably the fuel for El Nino in 2023-2024....

-IOD certainly helping the cause over the WPAC. Also a good time to take advantage of the Nina induced EWBs keeping that warm pool going and cash it in next year.

[George001]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

That's a good look though at least....we want the western region to warm while eastern region cools.

 

That warm pool out west in the subsurface is probably the fuel for El Nino in 2023-2024....

Hopefully we get a nino next year and it stays weak

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, George001 said:

Hopefully we get a nino next year and it stays weak

Yeah though my gut says it’s not gonna be weak. We will have a better idea after the winter on how well that warm pool has maintained. 
 

 But who knows. 1976-77 was a weak Nino and that was coming off a 3 year Niña. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 hours ago, It's Always Sunny said:

-IOD certainly helping the cause over the WPAC. Also a good time to take advantage of the Nina induced EWBs keeping that warm pool going and cash it in next year.

Modoki next year is a slam dunk...been saying for months.

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah though my gut says it’s not gonna be weak. We will have a better idea after the winter on how well that warm pool has maintained. 
 

 But who knows. 1976-77 was a weak Nino and that was coming off a 3 year Niña. 

I'm confident it will be at least moderate...maybe even strong, but it won't be a super event...modokis do not do that due to the currents associated with the dynamics of the Walker Cycle.

I think it will be like 57-58, 86-87, 02-03, 09-10.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I actually don't think the IOD and nina are coupled....according to research, the IOD isn't directly triggered by la nina unless it's a new event that develops by early summer...year long and late developing events interact differently with the ambient atmosphere over the tropical Pac.

This is a big reason why I think the rug gets pulled out quickly this winter, regardless of the state of the subsurface in August. This will serve to give el nino a real head start and it will at that point couple with the IO next summer...probably inducing another negative event. 

 

[It's Always Sunny]

12 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I actually don't think the IOD and nina are coupled....according to research, the IOD isn't directly triggered by la nina unless it's a new event that develops by early summer...year long and late developing events interact differently with the ambient atmosphere over the tropical Pac.

This is a big reason why I think the rug gets pulled out quickly this winter, regardless of the state of the subsurface in August. This will serve to give el nino a real head start and it will at that point couple with the IO next summer...probably another negative event. 

 

I don't think they are coupled either but the Walker Circulation gets enhanced with a -IOD in place with concurrent La Nina. When the -IOD weakens late this year/early next year I think that's when the "rug gets pulled out", not to mention some unforeseen upwelling occurring between now and then that may weaken La Nina even earlier. I'm expecting La Nina to hold through the end of the year but I think once the calendar flips we could be heading into Neutral territory, with El Nino by next summer.

[40/70 Benchmark]

19 minutes ago, It's Always Sunny said:

I don't think they are coupled either but the Walker Circulation gets enhanced with a -IOD in place with concurrent La Nina. When the -IOD weakens late this year/early next year I think that's when the "rug gets pulled out", not to mention some unforeseen upwelling occurring between now and then that may weaken La Nina even earlier. I'm expecting La Nina to hold through the end of the year but I think once the calendar flips we could be heading into Neutral territory, with El Nino by next summer.

Agree.

Ironically enough, I think the only reason this la nina won't end up strong is because it stagnated throughout the year. If it had abated and then redeveloped, it would have been better suited to link with the IOD and would have really gone to town. 

[tamarack]

8 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'm confident it will be at least moderate...maybe even strong, but it won't be a super event...modokis do not do that due to the currents associated with the dynamics of the Walker Cycle.

I think it will be like 57-58, 86-87, 02-03, 09-10.

57-58:  Warm and snowy, 3 storms of 15"
86-87:  Great January, historic flood for April Fools
02-03:  Cold and dry, suppression city though good retention
09-10:  <puke>

Combine 57-58 precip with 02-03 temps, bumper crop.
 

[512high]

1 minute ago, tamarack said:

57-58:  Warm and snowy, 3 storms of 15"
86-87:  Great January, historic flood for April Fools
02-03:  Cold and dry, suppression city though good retention
09-10:  <puke>

Combine 57-58 precip with 02-03 temps, bumper crop.
 

Great! Please not another shi*tty winter for me ....

[George001]

8 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'm confident it will be at least moderate...maybe even strong, but it won't be a super event...modokis do not do that due to the currents associated with the dynamics of the Walker Cycle.

I think it will be like 57-58, 86-87, 02-03, 09-10.

If that’s true hopefully we cash in this winter. Moderate can be decent but isn’t strong nino really bad in SNE? Or would that not really apply in this scenario because stronger ninos are usually east based and this one would be modoki? 

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 hours ago, George001 said:

If that’s true hopefully we cash in this winter. Moderate can be decent but isn’t strong nino really bad in SNE? Or would that not really apply in this scenario because stronger ninos are usually east based and this one would be modoki? 

A strong modoki is perfectly fine...it just doesn't have the SNE ceiling that a weaker event does bc the STJ is more prevalent than the N stream. Think 2009-2010, but we would likely do better than we did that season because we were very unlucky.  Highest snowfall anonalies would be expected across the mid atl, though....probe to big Miller Assholes.

Keep in mind when I say "strong" modoki....I mean like peak ONI of 1.5 or 1.6C....not super nino..those are canonical or basin wide deals. Modoki has a ceiling due to the dynamics of the Walker Cycle.

[George001]

4 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

A strong modoki is perfectly fine...it just doesn't have the SNE ceiling that a weaker event does bc the STJ is more prevalent than the N stream. Think 2009-2010, but we would likely do better than we did that season because we were very unlucky.  Highest snowfall anonalies would be expected across the mid atl, though....probe to big Miller Assholes.

Keep in mind when I say "strong" modoki....I mean like peak ONI of 1.5 or 1.6C....not super nino..those are canonical or basin wide deals. Modoki has a ceiling due to the dynamics of the Walker Cycle.

Oh no not Miller Asshole…… Id rather take my chances with a Nina even moderate strength (more Miller Bs). A 2009-2010 pattern with better luck could be decent for us, not like a 2015-2016 pattern with a super nino furnace winter. Id rather take my chances on a higher ceiling pattern in SNE like 2014-2015, 2010-2011 ect though. Oof at that storm where NYC got buried 2 feet while it rained here, that’s some tough luck. Other parts of the board would probably be happy with that 2009-2010 type of pattern (maybe Southern CT, RI ect?), but I am greedy, I want all the snow lol.

[It's Always Sunny]

I added winter (Nov-Mar) ENSO composites to my website. Feel free to take a look! If you find something out of place please let me know. There are likely a few since I've been focusing on compiling them (there are quite a few!). Eventually, I also want to incorporate 500 gph  anomalies for the corresponding years for quick access and analysis.

https://weatherchest.weebly.com/composites-new.html

[40/70 Benchmark]

8 hours ago, It&#x27;s Always Sunny said:

I added winter (Nov-Mar) ENSO composites to my website. Feel free to take a look! If you find something out of place please let me know. There are likely a few since I've been focusing on compiling them (there are quite a few!). Eventually, I also want to incorporate 500 gph  anomalies for the corresponding years for quick access and analysis.

https://weatherchest.weebly.com/composites-new.html

I need to go through the el nino events since 1950 and bin them by modoki level, like I have for la nina....probably this spring while in Africa.

But I noticed that you have 2009-2010 as central Pacific el nino; I distinctly remember that as being modoki....2002-2003, too.....1986-1987 was probably basin wide with a westward lean.

[It's Always Sunny]

36 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I need to go through the el nino events since 1950 and bin them by modoki level, like I have for la nina....probably this spring while in Africa.

But I noticed that you have 2009-2010 as central Pacific el nino; I distinctly remember that as being modoki....2002-2003, too.....1986-1987 was probably basin wide with a westward lean.

Ok thanks for the feedback I need to go through them again today and shift a couple around.  I will be organizing it based on how the basin looks within that 5 month window. Also since Modoki is still an evolving area of study I feel like there are varying opinions on what is one and what isn’t. I feel like there are some pretty clear-cut ones but also a lot of ones that are arguably borderline, especially situations where the EPac is near average. That’s just my thought process but open to suggestions I’d like to make this a good, quick, reference source rather than having to go through the NCEP site every time or trying to remember something from 20 years ago. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

22 minutes ago, It's Always Sunny said:

Ok thanks for the feedback I need to go through them again today and shift a couple around.  I will be organizing it based on how the basin looks within that 5 month window. Also since Modoki is still an evolving area of study I feel like there are varying opinions on what is one and what isn’t. I feel like there are some pretty clear-cut ones but also a lot of ones that are arguably borderline, especially situations where the EPac is near average. That’s just my thought process but open to suggestions I’d like to make this a good, quick, reference source rather than having to go through the NCEP site every time or trying to remember something from 20 years ago. 

You maybe right...I haven't done the work with the el nino dataset yet.

There is some subjectivity involved...what I did with la nina is I took a binned data set from a peer reviewed paper and then made some adjustments to the data myself. I consider modoki events ones in which the anomalies are centered well to the west, near the dateline, with either neutral or very weak anomalies to the east of 150 degrees longitude, over the eastern regions of 3 and 1.2. I then have a basin-wide/central pacific group, which I refer to in my work as "Hybrid" events, which are centered around approximately 150 longitude, but usually have el nino (la nina) anomalies throughout the basin. Finally, the east based events are entered to the east of 150* longitude, over regions 3 and 1.2, and have either marginal or no el nino (la nina) anomalies west of 150W.

Its tedious, but if you look at the DM SSTs from every year, you can get a good sense of where to group each season. Its helpful if you scale the SST anomalies down to 0.5 degree increments to really get a better sense of where the event was focused, as the coarser increments can be more difficult to discern, especially with respect to the weaker events.

[40/70 Benchmark]

11 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Anyone else notice how lackluster the ECMWF is with la nina, and how quickly it models its demise this winter? Has it at peak now, and weakens it to cool-neutral territory by December.

It makes sense to me given what I read regarding the lack of connection between the IOD and late developing, or year long stagnant ENSO events.

 

[ORH_wxman]

The only issue I have with the ECMWF forecast is it doesn't look like it's matching empirical reality early on. The Nina is def not going to steadily weaken in the next few weeks. I'd bet on strengthening looking at these graphs

 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

31 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The only issue I have with the ECMWF forecast is it doesn't look like it's matching empirical reality early on. The Nina is def not going to steadily weaken in the next few weeks. I'd bet on strengthening looking at these graphs

 

 

I agree. I'm not saying that I would rip and read its forecast, but I wouldn't entirely discount it, either.....I would blend it with some of the other guidance. Its not alone in doing this....its just the most extreme.

Check out the difference between the dynamical guidance and statistical guidance....I think that is illuminating.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Most of the subsurface cool anomalies are located under the eastern regions, which is actually pretty warm right now.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I am going to write up why I feel we are seeing this disparity amongst guidance because I think that there is a reason that dynamical guidance is weaker.

[ORH_wxman]

32 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Most of the subsurface cool anomalies are located under the eastern regions, which is actually pretty warm right now.

Yeah that is correct....but those subsurface anomalies are no slouch. They are very cold so I'd expect Nino 3 and 3.4 to really cool over the next month or so barring a reversal in guidance on the easterlies.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah that is correct....but those subsurface anomalies are no slouch. They are very cold so I'd expect Nino 3 and 3.4 to really cool over the next month or so barring a reversal in guidance on the easterlies.

Blue is easterly on that map, correct?