Winter 2022-2023 Conjecture

[ORH_wxman]

I guess we could start overlapping these with ENSO phase to see if a clearer pattern emerges, but you start reducing sample size when that happens.

Like lets pull all the -ENSO years from these "solar increase" periods (defined as the solar cycle is on the upswing or near peak but not an obvious local dip like late 2000):

1955-56: -NAO

1956-67: +NAO

1967-68: -NAO

1970-71: -NAO

1988-89: huge +NAO

1998-99: +NAO

1999-00: big +NAO

2010-11: huge -NAO

2012-13: -NAO

2021-22: +NAO

 

 

[ORH_wxman]

I don't see an obvious pattern there, but this is admittedly a pretty crude exercise.

[40/70 Benchmark]

19 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Does this hold up empirically? I can sort of understand the logic from a qualitative standpoint but I haven't seen anything empirical that backs it up. I'm just eyeballing these solar cycle graphs and I see all sorts of noise on the NAO for winters where the solar cycle was on the upswing.

It seems the "solar cycle increase/peak = +NAO" idea worked well in the +NAO-dominant period of 1980ish through early 2000s.....but outside of that period it's all over the place. The previous increase to peak was in the late 1960s to 1970ish (which we all know was massively -NAO period)....the one before that was the 1955-1959 period...another -NAO dominant stretch (sans '56-'57) and then the ones after that are 2010-2014 which was a mixed bag ('10-'11 and '12-13 were -NAO while '11-'12 and '13-14 were positive) and then the current one which started last year.

Good question and TBH I'm not sure, but my stance on the solar stuff if that its so cutting-edge and such frontier science that your guesstimate is as good as mine.

However, what I do feel more confident in is that Modoki la nina are positively correlated to both flatter Aleutian ridge and +NAO.

There are 8 modoki la nina events of various intensities in my composite of all seasons dating back to 1950, and of those 8 seasons, 2000-2001 is the only one that averaged a DM -NAO in the mean...and it took a supernova SSW and resultant month of March to accomplish said feat.

In addition to 2000-2001, 2008-2009 is another viable and potentially favorable type of outcome, which also featured a DM +NAO in the mean....so that isn't a death knell for us like it is further south.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

I don't see an obvious pattern there, but this is admittedly a pretty crude exercise.

 

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I guess we could start overlapping these with ENSO phase to see if a clearer pattern emerges, but you start reducing sample size when that happens.

Like lets pull all the -ENSO years from these "solar increase" periods (defined as the solar cycle is on the upswing or near peak but not an obvious local dip like late 2000):

1955-56: -NAO

1956-67: +NAO

1967-68: -NAO

1970-71: -NAO

1988-89: huge +NAO

1998-99: +NAO

1999-00: big +NAO

2010-11: huge -NAO

2012-13: -NAO

2021-22: +NAO

 

 

...And guess which are the only two modoki la nina seasons on this list?

They are emboldened.

[40/70 Benchmark]

While my postulated rising solar/+NAO correlation is largely theoretical and admittedly dubious, the moral of the story is that the combination of rising solar and modoki la nina doesn't scream "-NAO" to me.

[ORH_wxman]

17 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Good question and TBH I'm not sure, but my stance on the solar stuff if that its so cutting-edge and such frontier science that your guesstimate is as good as mine.

However, what I do feel more confident in is that Modoki la nina are positively correlated to both flatter Aleutian ridge and +NAO.

There are 8 modoki la nina events of various intensities in my composite of all seasons dating back to 1950, and of those 8 seasons, 2000-2001 is the only one that averaged a DM -NAO in the mean...and it took a supernova SSW and resultant month of March to accomplish said feat.

In addition to 2000-2001, 2008-2009 is another viable and potentially favorable type of outcome, which also featured a DM +NAO in the mean....so that isn't a death knell for us like it is further south.

Yeah these are fair points....I'm not saying I would be forecasting a -NAO right now. I'm just not that confident in a +NAO either. We can probably add a "neutral" category in there too. Years like 2008-2009 would prob fit that mold....technically positive, but barely so and most of that coming in March. We could prob say the same for '02-'03 that barely averaged positive.

I'm also not confident this is going to be a modoki Nina....the subsurface is pretty cold into Nina 3/3.4 compared to Nina 4.

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah these are fair points....I'm not saying I would be forecasting a -NAO right now. I'm just not that confident in a +NAO either. We can probably add a "neutral" category in there too. Years like 2008-2009 would prob fit that mold....technically positive, but barely so and most of that coming in March. We could prob say the same for '02-'03 that barely averaged positive.

I'm also not confident this is going to be a modoki Nina....the subsurface is pretty cold into Nina 3/3.4 compared to Nina 4.

Yes, I agree with both of these points.....I could totally a see a meekly positive NAO and a more basin wide la nina ultimately.

A basin wide la nina is definitely more of a -NAO risk....I will hash all of this out next week in a blogpost.

[40/70 Benchmark]

BTW, the government agencies/powers that be desperately need to stop generalizing ENSO events because as we have seen this summer, it not only wreaks havoc with winter forecasts, but tropical predictions, as well. You can not expect to make skillful seasonal forecasts without accurately portraying the nuances of ENSO.

Modoki ENSO events have drastically different outcomes from the canonical counterparts during the cold and warm seasons....this relatively meager tropical season was predictable.

[Snowcrazed71]

Although these preliminary forecasts are helpful ( and make sense ) it amazes me how much things tend to change as we progress through the Winter season.  That's what keeps, even the most cynical people, holding on by the nails to see how things play out ( and is the reason why I love every new Winter season ). The devil is in the details as they say.

[CoastalWx]

24 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

Although these preliminary forecasts are helpful ( and make sense ) it amazes me how much things tend to change as we progress through the Winter season.  That's what keeps, even the most cynical people, holding on by the nails to see how things play out ( and is the reason why I love every new Winter season ). The devil is in the details as they say.

Temps are difficult enough to forecast, and then try to forecast snow?? Woof.

 

I will say generally speaking if you go AN you win for temps. But now, timing the cold shots within an AN winter temp regime is becoming very important.

 

You can certainly have BN winter (Dec-Jan-Feb)  temp regimes in geographical regions..but as a whole..winter is warming.

[ORH_wxman]

25 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Temps are difficult enough to forecast, and then try to forecast snow?? Woof.

 

I will say generally speaking if you go AN you win for temps. But now, timing the cold shots within an AN winter temp regime is becoming very important.

 

You can certainly have BN winter (Dec-Jan-Feb)  temp regimes in geographical regions..but as a whole..winter is warming.

We've been in a pretty severe cold drought in the east for seasonal cold winter temps too...so we're prob due for a few colder seasons even within the present day baseline. Areas like the midwest and plains have been much colder....it even shows up well on the 5-year composite. The upper plains/N rockies have actually been below average in the means the last 5 years while the east has torched.

 

 

[ORH_wxman]

Here it is on the Continent level....we've had the cold source well primed....we just haven't been able to get that to bleed over the top like we did in many other winters such as 2013-2014 or 2008-2009.

 

[ineedsnow]

even if we end up below normal for snowfall this year it will probably seem like a normal winter for me.. glad to be over a 1,000 now in the route 2 area 

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, ineedsnow said:

even if we end up below normal for snowfall this year it will probably seem like a normal winter for me.. glad to be over a 1,000 now in the route 2 area 

Do they even have Internet out there yet?

[ineedsnow]

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Do they even have Internet out there yet?

ya we got internet and actually a ton of stuff around within 5 to 10 miles it's a great spot

[CoastalWx]

12 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

ya we got internet and actually a ton of stuff around within 5 to 10 miles it's a great spot

  I'm kidding. You should do well for snow. Probably similar to Hubbdave.

[ineedsnow]

16 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

  I'm kidding. You should do well for snow. Probably similar to Hubbdave.

Lol I'm  hoping

[ORH_wxman]

19 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

  I'm kidding. You should do well for snow. Probably similar to Hubbdave.

Yeah it depends on where he is. If he’s down near the Burnshirt River on the western side then it will be notably less than Hubbdave but the Eastern and southeastern side of Templeton is really high. Like 1100-1300 feet. They might get even a little more. 

[ORH_wxman]

Going back to the temp anomalies. We probably need some weak ENSO events that skew toward El Niño to shift the temps more toward cold in the east relative to the plains. Kind of like the 5 year period we saw between 2000-2001 and 2004-2005

 

[CoastalWx]

7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah it depends on where he is. If he’s down near the Burnshirt River on the western side then it will be notably less than Hubbdave but the Eastern and southeastern side of Templeton is really high. Like 1100-1300 feet. They might get even a little more. 

I think he said over 1K so I assume he should be decent. I don’t know where exactly he is though. 

[ORH_wxman]

Or we could just get a lot of cold everywhere like ‘07-08 to ‘14-15 

 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

6 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

I don't see an obvious pattern there, but this is admittedly a pretty crude exercise.

It’s like going on a speed dating social with a blindfold , same accuracy in picking a winner and then never mind being able to replicate that success, Unless you have more extreme enso event 

[ORH_wxman]

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I think he said over 1K so I assume he should be decent. I don’t know where exactly he is though. 

Even the river valley there is around 850-900 so most places are high, but the relative elevation matters a lot once you get on the west side of the slopes there. The eastern side of Templeton closer to Gardner airport would def do better than the western lower part near Phillipston but even the “screw zone” in Templeton isn’t going to be under a 70” average I don’t think. Maybe high 60s at worst. The 1200-1300 foot zone near Gardner prob gets 75-80”. 

[brooklynwx99]

5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Or we could just get a lot of cold everywhere like ‘07-08 to ‘14-15 

 

The super Nino in 2015-16 completely ruined the NA pattern. It's a total flip from 2009-2015 to 2017-2022. Can't wait for the Nino base state to return, hopefully in 2023-24.

[CoastalWx]

20 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Going back to the temp anomalies. We probably need some weak ENSO events that skew toward El Niño to shift the temps more toward cold in the east relative to the plains. Kind of like the 5 year period we saw between 2000-2001 and 2004-2005

 

I’d kill for a weak Nino. 

[CoastalWx]

I do miss events dispersed  between December and March. These years that have like six weeks of winter are just so painful. I can deal with a shortened winter if December is fun. 

[ORH_wxman]

12 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

The super Nino in 2015-16 completely ruined the NA pattern. It's a total flip from 2009-2015 to 2017-2022. Can't wait for the Nino base state to return, hopefully in 2023-24.

 

It really seems like the best combo for widespread cold is a -PDO regime in the N PAC combined with ENSO skewing warm. It’s kind of a weird combo since -PDO tends to go with Nina but that 2009-2015 period had a couple El Niño events and a warm neutral mixed in there despite the -PDO dominating….at least until 2014 when it started shifting positive before ‘14-15 winter. 
 

Now the -PDO has been dominating again but we can’t buy an El Niño except for that fraud 2018-2019 event which acted like a La Niña anyway.  This winter will be the 5th La Niña since 2016. 

[CoastalWx]

Those graphics are pretty telling. While the baseline is warming, clearly the east is skewed well above normal due to the seasonal  patterns versus any background signal.

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I’d kill for a weak Nino. 

One that actually acts like it too. (Unlike the faux ‘18-19 version) 

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Those graphics are pretty telling. While the baseline is warming, clearly the east is skewed well above normal due to the seasonal  patterns versus any background signal.

Yeah the plains and Canada haven’t had any trouble being cold recently. We’re getting shafted recently on top of any underlying warming trend. 
 

I’ll have to find the graphic (or I could prob just make one I guess), but I recently saw a NHEM temp trend from 1990-2021 and New England was one of the warmest trends anywhere outside of the arctic. We can send that one to Tip when he says we’ve been avoiding the warming….maybe for a while we were but not anymore.