Winter 2022-2023 Conjecture

[stadiumwave]

12z Euro

10mb

 

50mb

[stadiumwave]

Good morning! JMA new DEC 500mb

[WinterWolf]

Isn’t that 50 mb more important for us being it seems to influence the sensible weather much more often than the 10 mb? 
 

But I guess the take away is it’s showing the PV splitting and the bigger node on our side of the pole in both depictions…that could be fun…no? 
 

And that JMA H5 looks quite nice. 

[Typhoon Tip]

The whole 50 mb this 10 mb that etc recent, low earth orbit altitudes, strikes me as trying to correlate anything imaginable that might ultimately enhance the probability of getting 300 inches of snow in sub-forum’s regional backyard ha ha.  That’s like the end goal… forget everything else in between.  Like the fact that there’s an entire troposphere of fractals between here and there.  

i’m just trying to be tongue-in-cheek a little. But still… all the research I’ve done indicates that variations in the structure of the vortex at those extreme altitudes really don’t have a very strong correlation to anything that happens below unless there are very certain/specific metrical observations ongoing … none of which are likely to happen, because there are too many other variances that have greater physical exertion and noise within the total depths below, which overwhelm the circuitry much of the time. 

[WinterWolf]

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

The whole 50 mb this 10 mb that etc recent, low earth orbit altitudes, strikes me as trying to correlate anything imaginable that might ultimately enhance the probability of getting 300 inches of snow in sub-forum’s regional backyard ha ha.  That’s like the end goal… forget everything else in between.  Like the fact that there’s an entire troposphere of fractals between here and there.  

i’m just trying to be tongue-in-cheek a little. But still… all the research I’ve done indicates that variations in the structure of the vortex at those extreme altitudes really don’t have a very strong correlation to anything that happens below unless there are very certain/specific metrical observations ongoing … none of which are likely to happen, because there are too many other variances that have greater physical exertion and noise within the total depths below, which overwhelm the circuitry much of the time. 

Ok so we just ignore those things then? Good to know. 

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Ok so we just ignore those things then? Good to know. 

 A good analogy is it's like on a new car where they have the anti-collision system and rear-view camera for backing up....that's what the splitting of the PV aloft is adding. It helps, but there are still a hundred variables more important in being safe on the road than just having those features. All else equal, you'd rather have them than not.....but they aren't going to make a terrible driver safe.

The stratospheric PV split just makes resistance to blocking a little less, which is good. But we don't want everyone to start throwing a party just because it shows up. It is still minor in the scheme of things.

[WinterWolf]

51 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

 A good analogy is it's like on a new car where they have the anti-collision system and rear-view camera for backing up....that's what the splitting of the PV aloft is adding. It helps, but there are still a hundred variables more important in being safe on the road than just having those features. All else equal, you'd rather have them than not.....but they aren't going to make a terrible driver safe.

The stratospheric PV split just makes resistance to blocking a little less, which is good. But we don't want everyone to start throwing a party just because it shows up. It is still minor in the scheme of things.

Great explanation!  Understood.  Thank you. 

[George001]

3 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

The whole 50 mb this 10 mb that etc recent, low earth orbit altitudes, strikes me as trying to correlate anything imaginable that might ultimately enhance the probability of getting 300 inches of snow in sub-forum’s regional backyard ha ha.  That’s like the end goal… forget everything else in between.  Like the fact that there’s an entire troposphere of fractals between here and there.  

i’m just trying to be tongue-in-cheek a little. But still… all the research I’ve done indicates that variations in the structure of the vortex at those extreme altitudes really don’t have a very strong correlation to anything that happens below unless there are very certain/specific metrical observations ongoing … none of which are likely to happen, because there are too many other variances that have greater physical exertion and noise within the total depths below, which overwhelm the circuitry much of the time. 

Yeah the whole polar vortex split, SSW stuff is overhyped a lot. I fell victim to buying in quite a few times over the past few years. Even if it splits favorably we need the polar vortex to not recover. Sometimes it splits and then just recovers immediately so nothing really happens for us. What causes the vortex to recover fast sometimes where as other times it says shattered into pieces for an extended period of time? 

[weathafella]

33 minutes ago, George001 said:

Yeah the whole polar vortex split, SSW stuff is overhyped a lot. I fell victim to buying in quite a few times over the past few years. Even if it splits favorably we need the polar vortex to not recover. Sometimes it splits and then just recovers immediately so nothing really happens for us. What causes the vortex to recover fast sometimes where as other times it says shattered into pieces for an extended period of time? 

You confuse the strat vortex with the common term polar vortex which to my knowledge is typically seen at 500mb.   Maybe I’m wrong but that’s my understanding.

[WinterWolf]

13 minutes ago, weathafella said:

You confuse the strat vortex with the common term polar vortex which to my knowledge is typically seen at 500mb.   Maybe I’m wrong but that’s my understanding.

Jerry, Stadiumwave posted the strat vortex at 10 and 50 mb, which is the strat vortex.  I believe George has it right when he asks about the polar vortex(which is the strat PV) in this instance…at least the way that I understand it. 

[weathafella]

23 hours ago, WinterWolf said:

Jerry, Stadiumwave posted the strat vortex at 10 and 50 mb, which is the strat vortex.  I believe George has it right when he asks about the polar vortex(which is the strat PV) in this instance…at least the way that I understand it. 

JD, I understand that part but the pv that we refer to as having an immediate effect on sensible wx is at h5 I believe.  So George ‘s impression that we want the strat vortex to split greatly influencing our sensible wx may not be correct.  However, we’d rather a split than not.  As Will posted, it helps but it’s not the main influencer.

[WinterWolf]

36 minutes ago, weathafella said:

JD, I understand that part but the pv that we refer to as having an immediate effect on sensible wx is at h5 I believe.  So George ‘s impression that we want the strat vortex to split greatly influencing our sensible wx may not be correct.  However, we’d rather a split than not.  As Will posted, it helps but it’s not the main influencer.

Oh ok.  The way I understood George,  was that he was asking about why the “stratospheric polar vortex” sometimes congeals back together very quickly, and sometimes it doesn’t.  I didn’t think he was talking about the polar vortex at H5, or confusing it with H5. But maybe he was?  Lol? 

[snowman19]

@40/70 Benchmark Thoughts on this: 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

@40/70 Benchmark Thoughts on this: 

 

Pretty inconsequential. Maybe it peaks ar 1.2 instead of 1.0?

That's why you give a range.

[stadiumwave]

 

[George001]

58 minutes ago, stadiumwave said:

 

Based on what’s happening now it looks promising for a -NAO. La Niña+ -NAO is a really good combination for us, even in stronger Nina’s. 

[George001]

With blocking the biggest concern is suppression, especially in El Niño patterns with a farther south storm track. Fortunately is 0 signs that we will have anything remotely resembling an El Niño pattern this winter.

[Typhoon Tip]

On 11/14/2022 at 11:24 AM, ORH_wxman said:

 A good analogy is it's like on a new car where they have the anti-collision system and rear-view camera for backing up....that's what the splitting of the PV aloft is adding. It helps, but there are still a hundred variables more important in being safe on the road than just having those features. All else equal, you'd rather have them than not.....but they aren't going to make a terrible driver safe.

The stratospheric PV split just makes resistance to blocking a little less, which is good. But we don't want everyone to start throwing a party just because it shows up. It is still minor in the scheme of things.

The analogy tactic is an effective means. I like that particular design lol  

I did say, “unless there are very certain/specific metrical observations ongoing ..” that’s saying the same thing re getting all the “100 variables” in line.  

My intended take away there, is that it’s not a silver bullet big winter salvation. Specifically as it relates to those very high altitude “edge of space” mass regions and their perturbations … A planetary wave decay/intrusion taking place in the 30 or 50 mb levels underneath completely supplants any 10mb morphology.  Etc.  Agreed. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

On 7/16/2022 at 4:07 PM, StormchaserChuck! said:

Unfortunately we have a strong +QBO coming. With La Nina, even weak, that's a really strong 10mb vortex, normally. 

 

The last 2 times we have kind of cheated a little at the surface

even 3

It worked again... 4th time in a row La Nina/+QBO has led to -NAO. Quite a little anti-thesis verifying. 

https://ibb.co/JRbpVST

I bet you if next year is El Nino/-QBO, -NAO will not be most dominant pattern in the N. Hemisphere, everything else but that

Maybe even something like 13-14/14-15, in the extreme.