Winter 2022-2023 Conjecture

[weathafella]

2010-11 was a fabulous winter for snow depth during the 7 week blitz from Boxing Day to early February.

[dryslot]

1 hour ago, tamarack said:

yup, 1.1" more than here.  That was the first season for the Snow Table, and over its 11 season LEW has done a lot better compared to climo than here.  Same goes for Lava Rock.  I'm waiting for climo to reassert itself.  

Hopefully the wait will end this winter, Would like to see another 07/08 repeat.

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, weathafella said:

2010-11 was a fabulous winter for snow depth during the 7 week blitz from Boxing Day to early February.

Comes in 3rd place actually for my personal  “where I am” static depth records. Not bad. 

First place was 2015. Second place was 1995.  I resided in Middlesex County all three of those years … Which granted it’s a big enough space that the southern aspects tend to have less than the northern. 

[Typhoon Tip]

Wasn’t there a winter back then … I want to say 2008, there was a huge December. We kept getting these Southwest flow/front loaded type 6 to 10 inch events lightly crusted over with Misty glaze.  Cold air kept up winning out. Most of them were forecast to change the straight rain.   

Three or four of them and then some junket ones in between and we ended up with like 40 inches or something.  Probably right up there with some of the Decembers of any lore.  

[tamarack]

14 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Hopefully the wait will end this winter, Would like to see another 07/08 repeat.

My dream is a winter with 07-08's snowstorm frequency, seasoned with big dogs like 16-17.

[dryslot]

12 minutes ago, tamarack said:

My dream is a winter with 07-08's snowstorm frequency, seasoned with big dogs like 16-17.

A couple 12"+ ones would be nice, Those have been rare here the last 10yrs or so.

[SJonesWX]

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Wasn’t there a winter back then … I want to say 2008, there was a huge December. We kept getting these Southwest flow/front loaded type 6 to 10 inch events lightly crusted over with Misty glaze.  Cold air kept up winning out. Most of them were forecast to change the straight rain.   

Three or four of them and then some junket ones in between and we ended up with like 40 inches or something.  Probably right up there with some of the Decembers of any lore.  

that was December 2007. it was pretty awesome

[40/70 Benchmark]

8 minutes ago, SJonesWX said:

that was December 2007. it was pretty awesome

December 2008 was nearly as impressive 

[snowman19]

6 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Thanks, bro....basically +TNH= -EPO.

https://openatmosphericsciencejournal.com/VOLUME/10/PAGE/6/FULLTEXT/

[tamarack]

2 hours ago, dryslot said:

A couple 12"+ ones would be nice, Those have been rare here the last 10yrs or so.

I'd limit that to the past 4 years, as 16-17 had 3 of 12"+, tied with 2000-01 (And all 6 of those storms were at least 15.5") while 17-18 had 2, 19.9" and 16,5".  Biggest since 17-18 is 12.4" last February.  Season's biggest snowfall averaged 15.1" for our first 20 winters here (includes the pitiful 5.9" of 05-06), only 11.0" for the most recent 4.

[Typhoon Tip]

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

December 2008 was nearly as impressive 

Yup... it's come back to me since earlier.  We had those two back to back December years.

[George001]

The pattern looks like it’s going to turn cold according to the models. I’d bet we start seeing snow threats pop up on the models soon, possibly even 1 or 2 runs showing a blizzard! Now it is November, so it’s very unlikely that it will even snow at all never mind a major nor’easter/blizzard. I’m just saying, the models will probably start showing it soon. Even though those fantasy storms won’t happen, it’s a good sign that the pattern is moving in a favorable direction going into December. The way things are going, in a month there’s a decent chance we will be tracking a storm for real. 

 

[George001]

One of the reasons why I’m starting to get really excited about the potential for a big December is the La Niña. I was of the impression that the La Niña was going to be weak by now, and be nearly gone by late December. That impression was based off the models a couple months ago, and things changed. That La Niña is not weak, not even close. I saw a comparison with this years La Niña and last years from early November on another board, and this years looks quite a bit stronger. It’s WAY stronger in the eastern 3 and 1.2 regions, but it’s also stronger and more expansive in the 3.4 and 4 regions as well. It’s straight up just a stronger La Niña, and is basin wide. This is reflected by the MEI values as well. Am I smoking some good shit, or does this Nina look closer to 2010-2011 than 2016-2017? I know it’s not super impressive by ONI but the area of below average temps is just so much more expansive than I would expect to see from a weak nina.

[George001]

For comparison purposes this is last years Nina, which peaked at -1.0 or right on the border of weak/moderate. It’s not even close.

[George001]

The La Niña clearly isn’t east based, which isn’t surprising considering East based Nina’s are normally weak unlike that goddamn beast we currently have in the Pacific Ocean. It’s basin wide, but it’s strongest in the eastern areas rather than the western areas like last year. 

[Typhoon Tip]

the kid can’t wait to say the word blizzard. 

[snowman19]

2 hours ago, George001 said:

One of the reasons why I’m starting to get really excited about the potential for a big December is the La Niña. I was of the impression that the La Niña was going to be weak by now, and be nearly gone by late December. That impression was based off the models a couple months ago, and things changed. That La Niña is not weak, not even close. I saw a comparison with this years La Niña and last years from early November on another board, and this years looks quite a bit stronger. It’s WAY stronger in the eastern 3 and 1.2 regions, but it’s also stronger and more expansive in the 3.4 and 4 regions as well. It’s straight up just a stronger La Niña, and is basin wide. This is reflected by the MEI values as well. Am I smoking some good shit, or does this Nina look closer to 2010-2011 than 2016-2017? I know it’s not super impressive by ONI but the area of below average temps is just so much more expansive than I would expect to see from a weak nina.

I wonder why there’s no more talk about the GOA and NA west coast SSTs on twitter anymore lol

[40/70 Benchmark]

Anyone have the new link for JISAO Mantua PDO data? The site has been redesigned....

[stadiumwave]

[40/70 Benchmark]

@CoastalWxPlease update this images for m?

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Are these still valid, or has data changed?

[ORH_wxman]

Not sure about the EPS....Scott can post when he sees this, but I do have OP run from last night and it basically splits the PV at 50mb by D10

 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Sorry, here is second one

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Not sure about the EPS....Scott can post when he sees this, but I do have OP run from last night and it basically splits the PV at 50mb by D10

 

 

Thanks.

I'll update if he says its changed.

[snowman19]

FWIW: 

 

[SnowGoose69]

10 hours ago, snowman19 said:

FWIW: 

 

Obviously something is off with the NAMER projections...the ridge from the W Coast to the Bering is probably too far east...reality is it probably would be more troughy over the W Coast because if the ridge truly was that broad no way would the ensuing trof be as narrow as shown..you'd probably have a trof all the way to the E Coast with the SER being pushed offshore 

[roardog]

10 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Obviously something is off with the NAMER projections...the ridge from the W Coast to the Bering is probably too far east...reality is it probably would be more troughy over the W Coast because if the ridge truly was that broad no way would the ensuing trof be as narrow as shown..you'd probably have a trof all the way to the E Coast with the SER being pushed offshore 

That map is mean sea level pressure for 3 months. That almost seems useless to me. lol

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, roardog said:

That map is mean sea level pressure for 3 months. That almost seems useless to me. lol

The UK has been way too warm for winter all fall, as it was waaay too strong with la nina. Not sure if that is still the case...

[ORH_wxman]

2 hours ago, roardog said:

That map is mean sea level pressure for 3 months. That almost seems useless to me. lol

Agreed. H5 anomaly would be way more useful. 

[J Paul Gordon]

Guesses based on previous winters that start with a very warm November. Unscientific but probably more likely to pan out than the Old Farmers Almanac. 

Nov: 6-8 AN; Dec: 4-6 AN; Jan: 1-3 AN; Feb 5-8 AN; March 0-2 BN. In December we'll have some cold snowy outbreaks but a couple of multi day spells of very high temps (generally low to mid 60s) will skew the month much above normal. The annual "grinch storm" is likely on the ticket. January will be closer to normal with a couple of inland runners with mild, rainy weather  and maybe a coastal that will bring snow to much of the interior (and coast Boston northwards); February will be very mild and dry. Normal to below normal temps in March with significant snowfall throughout the region except for the Cape and islands.