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Winter 2022-2023 Conjecture


40/70 Benchmark
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3 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Well I don't rule it out....would be silly to be too cocky in weather. I'm just saying why I am thinking it will try to occur again. It doesn't mean 2021 happens again or anything like that. 
If anything we may see flow to try and go more zonal...not really a sign of SE ridging..just less amplitude near AK.

Wouldn't a little SE ridging be ok , especially up here in late Dec/Jan?  No suppression issues.  Last year was frigid and dry in Jan.

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1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Another option is the ridge really retros by the Bering Sea and a -WP pattern develops with some ridging out west? I've heard that thrown around too.  

Yes. I saw someone mention that possibility on twitter, I forget who it was, but they mentioned a possible -WPO/poleward Aleutian ridge developing in December in response to the Niña forcing 

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18 minutes ago, bwt3650 said:

Wouldn't a little SE ridging be ok , especially up here in late Dec/Jan?  No suppression issues.  Last year was frigid and dry in Jan.

Oh yeah some ridging is good. Don't want cold and dry kiss em goodbye stuff. I don't fear the ridge here, so long as it's not a massive +3SD ridge or something lol.

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2 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Yeah, that might be one of the best matches now. 1985-86 is becoming less and less of a match.

it's a great match with PDO, MEI, general SST anomaly placement for ENSO - yes, 2010-11 was strong, but the placement of the anomalies is just as important, and they're very similar. this Nina is also no slouch

QBO is also a dead ringer. I can see this December going somewhat like that one in terms of blocking, but that was a unicorn of a winter and to expect anything of that magnitude is foolish

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1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said:

it's a great match with PDO, MEI, general SST anomaly placement for ENSO - yes, 2010-11 was strong, but the placement of the anomalies is just as important, and they're very similar. this Nina is also no slouch

QBO is also a dead ringer. I can see this December going somewhat like that one in terms of blocking, but that was a unicorn of a winter and to expect anything of that magnitude is foolish

2020 dead ringer for QBO, too...those are my two primary QBO analogs.

2010 is one of 5 primary ENSO analogs.

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1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I am planning on a late Thursday/Thursday night publication, as I am going away with the wife on Friday and having it carry over will result in divorce. 

Lmao…ahh that’s funny. Ya get it out and let the chips fall where they may.
And go have fun and relax on vaca:thumbsup:tion. 

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16 hours ago, dryslot said:

2010-11, Was well above normal winter in NNE.

Because we consistently had modest storms while others nearby got pounded, snowfall was almost exactly on the average thru March 31.  Then the 15" April Fools joke kicked the total to 100".  A fine winter but with lots of "what could've beens".  (Though tiny in that respect compared to 12-13 and especially 14-15.)

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1 minute ago, tamarack said:

Because we consistently had modest storms while others nearby got pounded, snowfall was almost exactly on the average thru March 31.  Then the 15" April Fools joke kicked the total to 100".  A fine winter but with lots of "what could've beens".  (Though tiny in that respect compared to 12-13 and especially 14-15.)

I was on the 100"+ side albeit at 101" that year.

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7 minutes ago, dryslot said:

I was on the 100"+ side albeit at 101" that year.

yup, 1.1" more than here.  That was the first season for the Snow Table, and over its 11 season LEW has done a lot better compared to climo than here.  Same goes for Lava Rock.  I'm waiting for climo to reassert itself.  :lol:

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