Snowcrazed71 Posted November 6, 2022 Share Posted November 6, 2022 3 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: We all worry right now . From NNE south Love the way you try to push people's buttons. I will pray your house gets iced in for the next 4 months ;-) 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 6, 2022 Share Posted November 6, 2022 I used to worry but honestly now I could care less. Winter is winter and hopefully it snows. If not....oh well. I do think this year brings AOA snow totals for most of New England. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 6, 2022 Share Posted November 6, 2022 14 minutes ago, weathafella said: I used to worry but honestly now I could care less. Winter is winter and hopefully it snows. If not....oh well. I do think this year brings AOA snow totals for most of New England. Same we have seen it all. What happens happens. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bristolri_wx Posted November 6, 2022 Share Posted November 6, 2022 33 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Same we have seen it all. What happens happens. Even though he’s full of it these days, Joe Bastardi did have a good tagline at the end of his videos when he worked for Accuweather. ”Enjoy the weather, it’s the only weather you‘ve got.” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 6, 2022 Author Share Posted November 6, 2022 2 hours ago, weathafella said: I used to worry but honestly now I could care less. Winter is winter and hopefully it snows. If not....oh well. I do think this year brings AOA snow totals for most of New England. I still worry, but TBH, 4 consecutive years of well below normal has kind of inured me to the variation. I'm no longer waiting for the other shoe to drop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 6, 2022 Author Share Posted November 6, 2022 I could see a path to a 5th this year, but not a 6th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted November 7, 2022 Share Posted November 7, 2022 21 hours ago, weathafella said: I used to worry but honestly now I could care less. Winter is winter and hopefully it snows. If not....oh well. I do think this year brings AOA snow totals for most of New England. Having lived in DC and come back to some of the worst winters I can recall, I don’t spend headspace worrying about it either. It just is whatever it wants to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted November 7, 2022 Share Posted November 7, 2022 20 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I could see a path to a 5th this year, but not a 6th. It looks like a strong -EPO/+TNH pattern sets up mid-late month and probably into early December….question is does it have staying power beyond the beginning of December? It may depend on the MJO progression…. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 7, 2022 Share Posted November 7, 2022 Bring It! It’s time. We’ll enjoy the last real summer type day today(been a real nice 4-5 days of warmth), but let’s get it on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 7, 2022 Share Posted November 7, 2022 Not sure if I buy this mtn torque stuff pumping a PNA ridge into December. I'm not ruling it out, but I think we may get more SE ridging late month into early December. I'm more interested to see if we can keep this ridging near the Aleutians into Santa's fanny while maybe the Scandi ridging tries to pop again. I'd like to pin that PV closer to Hudson Bay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 7, 2022 Share Posted November 7, 2022 9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Not sure if I buy this mtn torque stuff pumping a PNA ridge into December. I'm not ruling it out, but I think we may get more SE ridging late month into early December. I'm more interested to see if we can keep this ridging near the Aleutians into Santa's fanny while maybe the Scandi ridging tries to pop again. I'd like to pin that PV closer to Hudson Bay. I won’t buy the +PNA in December La Niña until it’s staring us in the face. Not talking about a transient ridge either. Like a locked in PNA+ for 2-3 weeks. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 7, 2022 Share Posted November 7, 2022 Just now, ORH_wxman said: I won’t buy the +PNA in December La Niña until it’s staring us in the face. Not talking about a transient ridge either. Like a locked in PNA+ for 2-3 weeks. Right...exactly. A transient ridge lasting a few days doesn't count. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted November 7, 2022 Share Posted November 7, 2022 17 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Not sure if I buy this mtn torque stuff pumping a PNA ridge into December. I'm not ruling it out, but I think we may get more SE ridging late month into early December. I'm more interested to see if we can keep this ridging near the Aleutians into Santa's fanny while maybe the Scandi ridging tries to pop again. I'd like to pin that PV closer to Hudson Bay. Wouldn’t a -EPO, -PNA/RNA, +NAO work for New England in December? I know south of there would probably have issues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 7, 2022 Share Posted November 7, 2022 2 hours ago, snowman19 said: Wouldn’t a -EPO, -PNA/RNA, +NAO work for New England in December? I know south of there would probably have issues It depends on the orientation. Not all -EPO/-PNA/+NAO patterns are alike. Some are Dec 2007 but others can be last year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 7, 2022 Author Share Posted November 7, 2022 3 hours ago, CoastalWx said: Not sure if I buy this mtn torque stuff pumping a PNA ridge into December. I'm not ruling it out, but I think we may get more SE ridging late month into early December. I'm more interested to see if we can keep this ridging near the Aleutians into Santa's fanny while maybe the Scandi ridging tries to pop again. I'd like to pin that PV closer to Hudson Bay. 3 hours ago, ORH_wxman said: I won’t buy the +PNA in December La Niña until it’s staring us in the face. Not talking about a transient ridge either. Like a locked in PNA+ for 2-3 weeks. Agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 7, 2022 Author Share Posted November 7, 2022 1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said: It depends on the orientation. Not all -EPO/-PNA/+NAO patterns are alike. Some are Dec 2007 but others can be last year. I've been looking at this alot on Friday and today...pretty clear theme IMO. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 7, 2022 Share Posted November 7, 2022 Just going from this afternoon to tomorrow morning is gonna be weird I mean it’s mid upper 70s across the area and we’re going to frost tomorrow morning probably in the interior 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 7, 2022 Share Posted November 7, 2022 Do days of averages and it might even be right back to this warm on Thursday and Friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted November 7, 2022 Share Posted November 7, 2022 54 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Agree. These are some good points on how the MJO progressions/tropical forcing may go this winter: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stadiumwave Posted November 7, 2022 Share Posted November 7, 2022 Models are busting bad on the MJO. They liked to have never come around to the fact it would make it out of phase 7. But even when they came around they've had it barely in Phase 8 & headed to the COD. Well...its still chugging along. I'd disregard LR modeling with models not getting MJO correct...and that will be reflected in models. Hopefully that get a better hunch of what's MJO is going to do. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stadiumwave Posted November 8, 2022 Share Posted November 8, 2022 13 hours ago, CoastalWx said: Not sure if I buy this mtn torque stuff pumping a PNA ridge into December. I'm not ruling it out, but I think we may get more SE ridging late month into early December. I'm more interested to see if we can keep this ridging near the Aleutians into Santa's fanny while maybe the Scandi ridging tries to pop again. I'd like to pin that PV closer to Hudson Bay. SE ridge will appear but very short lived. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 8, 2022 Share Posted November 8, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted November 8, 2022 Share Posted November 8, 2022 2 hours ago, MJO812 said: That guy is a total joke. He posts and hypes the 384 hour operational GFS and the 700 hour CFS. Worse than JB and Henry Margusity. The pro mets rip him apart on twitter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted November 8, 2022 Share Posted November 8, 2022 1 minute ago, snowman19 said: That guy is a total joke. He posts the 384 hour operation GFS and the 700 hour CFS. Worst than JB and Henry Margusity lol. One month out. Someday it may be correct. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 8, 2022 Share Posted November 8, 2022 SOI 30 days prior is the always the first thing I look at when trying to predict a winter storm. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 8, 2022 Share Posted November 8, 2022 8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: SOI 30 days prior is the always the first thing I look at when trying to predict a winter storm. There is so much BS voodoo it's ridiculous. People are using all these indices like it's 2004 all over again. As if models right now don't factor any of this in. Please tell me if there is a low in the Bering Sea so that I can predict the next warm spell in 3 weeks. Or whatever that joke of a theory is. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 8, 2022 Share Posted November 8, 2022 17 hours ago, stadiumwave said: Models are busting bad on the MJO. They liked to have never come around to the fact it would make it out of phase 7. But even when they came around they've had it barely in Phase 8 & headed to the COD. Well...its still chugging along. I'd disregard LR modeling with models not getting MJO correct...and that will be reflected in models. Hopefully that get a better hunch of what's MJO is going to do. RMMs are usually too noisy. The forcing right now is in two areas. Should see that go into IO and then maritime continent which probably will cause SE ridge to try and appear. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted November 8, 2022 Share Posted November 8, 2022 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: RMMs are usually too noisy. The forcing right now is in two areas. Should see that go into IO and then maritime continent which probably will cause SE ridge to try and appear. That is why I don’t understand the proclamations that SE ridging isn’t going to happen. With eastern IO and Maritime Continent forcing, it’s going to rear its ugly head 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 8, 2022 Share Posted November 8, 2022 1 minute ago, snowman19 said: That is why I don’t understand the proclamations that SE ridging isn’t going to happen. With eastern IO and Maritime Continent forcing, it’s going to rear its ugly head Well I don't rule it out....would be silly to be too cocky in weather. I'm just saying why I am thinking it will try to occur again. It doesn't mean 2021 happens again or anything like that. If anything we may see flow to try and go more zonal...not really a sign of SE ridging..just less amplitude near AK. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 8, 2022 Share Posted November 8, 2022 Another option is the ridge really retros by the Bering Sea and a -WP pattern develops with some ridging out west? I've heard that thrown around too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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