RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 4, 2022 Share Posted November 4, 2022 21 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Thanks, man. It became clear to me during my IOD research back in August. Using the Indian Ocean as a Predictor of ENSO | Eastern Mass Weather Its probably not a big deal, but it maybe related to why this event became a bit more east-based, as well. The fact that it was so stagnant really helped to facilitate the development of the negative subsurface anomalies in the western end of ENSO. This was bordering on Modoki until August...I began get a bit more optimistic for winter later in the summer and into the fall due to this...pending results of my sensible analog recalibration. So we’re hopping on the Steve and Ray winter train while letting the LC train pass by empty, huh… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 4, 2022 Author Share Posted November 4, 2022 @CoastalWx@ORH_wxman Could you guys help me out and throw me some strat temp/PV guidance for the next month? I don't have my packages yet and Judah is out of commission this week. Thanks. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 4, 2022 Share Posted November 4, 2022 The only ones I really use, are for the EPS...so that is only for the next 2 weeks. It does split just over a week from now, and remains sort of elongated towards the end....so I would say it is feeling some disruption. But, it can easily congeal at some point too. I don't know what December entails...but it's good to see it gets disturbed. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 4, 2022 Author Share Posted November 4, 2022 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: The only ones I really use, are for the EPS...so that is only for the next 2 weeks. It does split just over a week from now, and remains sort of elongated towards the end....so I would say it is feeling some disruption. But, it can easily congeal at some point too. I don't know what December entails...but it's good to see it gets disturbed. Thanks, man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 4, 2022 Author Share Posted November 4, 2022 Isn't 10mb better? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 4, 2022 Share Posted November 4, 2022 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Isn't 10mb better? 50mb is closer to the troposphere, and would likely have a better chance of propagating down to the troposphere. I can post 10mb too. I never look at 10mb to be honest because you can have the moon collapse and blow up there and nothing propagates down lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 4, 2022 Author Share Posted November 4, 2022 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: 50mb is closer to the troposphere, and would likely have a better chance of propagating down to the troposphere. I can post 10mb too. I never look at 10mb to be honest because you can have the moon collapse and blow up there and nothing propagates down lol. That's right...I remembered that after I posted. Still shaking cob webs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 4, 2022 Author Share Posted November 4, 2022 I'm surprised I haven't hard more about that PV split...probably bc its so early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 4, 2022 Share Posted November 4, 2022 Relationship is kind of weak, but all else equal, you like to see the warm anomalies in the stratosphere in the eastern portion (toward Bering) of Siberia in mid/late November. 50mb charts show that which is good. That has historically meant a better chance for blocking. But like some of these other stratospheric and blocking relationships, I wouldn't weight them too much. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 4, 2022 Author Share Posted November 4, 2022 7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Relationship is kind of weak, but all else equal, you like to see the warm anomalies in the stratosphere in the eastern portion (toward Bering) of Siberia in mid/late November. 50mb charts show that which is good. That has historically meant a better chance for blocking. But like some of these other stratospheric and blocking relationships, I wouldn't weight them too much. November 2000 had a Canadian warming event, which led to a displacement in December and split in Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 4, 2022 Author Share Posted November 4, 2022 What is the difference between Canadian warming VS SSW? I take it the former is more minor? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 4, 2022 Share Posted November 4, 2022 2 hours ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: So we’re hopping on the Steve and Ray winter train while letting the LC train pass by empty, huh… Why the confusion Ray? Looks like you’re more optimistic about the season than you initially were, is all I’m saying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 4, 2022 Author Share Posted November 4, 2022 17 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Why the confusion Ray? Looks like you’re more optimistic about the season than you initially were, is all I’m saying. The letting LC pass by part....he is on board for a good season. Are you saying I jumped on board later? I'm not offended or anything...just honestly confused. Anyway, its a fluid process until I send everything...my ENSO stuff has been consistent since mid summer, but the issue was the new sensible weather stuff I am trying wasn't aligning. I used to just to ENSO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 4, 2022 Author Share Posted November 4, 2022 I would like to see the 50mb charts from Novie 2000. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 4, 2022 Share Posted November 4, 2022 My guess...and I could be wrong..but I think Canadian warming events lead to some blocking from Hudson bay towards Davis Straits. I don't know if that falls under a SSW or just maybe part of it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 4, 2022 Share Posted November 4, 2022 39 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: The letting LC pass by part....he is on board for a good season. Are you saying I jumped on board later? I'm not offended or anything...just honestly confused. Anyway, its a fluid process until I send everything...my ENSO stuff has been consistent since mid summer, but the issue was the new sensible weather stuff I am trying wasn't aligning. I used to just to ENSO. I thought LC was going warm with BN snows, my bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 4, 2022 Author Share Posted November 4, 2022 27 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: I thought LC was going warm with BN snows, my bad. No, he and DT are aggressive. LC has the best snows NW of us, but still above average here. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 4, 2022 Share Posted November 4, 2022 1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I would like to see the 50mb charts from Novie 2000. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FXWX Posted November 4, 2022 Share Posted November 4, 2022 2 hours ago, CoastalWx said: 50mb is closer to the troposphere, and would likely have a better chance of propagating down to the troposphere. I can post 10mb too. I never look at 10mb to be honest because you can have the moon collapse and blow up there and nothing propagates down lol. Might be my favorite quote ever about using 10 mb level... Lol... Actually put a smile on my face... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 4, 2022 Share Posted November 4, 2022 1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: No, he and DT are aggressive. LC has the best snows NW of us, but still above average here. I like above average. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 4, 2022 Share Posted November 4, 2022 On 11/3/2022 at 8:42 AM, ORH_wxman said: Yeah it's not really feasible to go wire to wire. 1995-1996 did have all 4 big snow months above normal (Dec/Jan/Feb/Mar) but we obviously had that brutal thaw in 2nd half of January. 2000-2001 over the interior did as well. That year is prob the closest since it didn't have any brutal thaws after the 12/17/00 cutter (there were two small snow events in the week after that too which saved white Xmas) Only other one off the top of my head was maybe 1960-1961. '04-'05, '92-'93, and '93-'94 were all close but no cigar. They all had one month that was more like average instead of above avg. '07-'08 prob pulled it off in NNE. You missed 02 03 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 4, 2022 Author Share Posted November 4, 2022 1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said: Def warmer then...thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 4, 2022 Author Share Posted November 4, 2022 I think this year's piece is pretty good...I've really been able to dig beyond the ENSO structural variations, while achieving forecast symmetry via consensus from a variety of different angles. I was able to dig into the polar domain a bit more this season, which should hopefully improve what has been a dreadful area for me. I have managed to work around that with respect to la nina, but misdiagnosing the polar domain absolutely killed me in the el nino seasons of 2018-2019 and 2019-2020. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 4, 2022 Share Posted November 4, 2022 1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said: You missed 02 03 Mar '03 was below average here in snow....though not sure down where you are. You might have been closer to normal with the 3/6/03 event doing better south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted November 4, 2022 Share Posted November 4, 2022 @40/70 Benchmark Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 4, 2022 Share Posted November 4, 2022 34 minutes ago, snowman19 said: @40/70 Benchmark That doesn't look like a bad forecast for this November either. We're going to prob finish above normal here because the first 10 days are so warm, but it could get close if we have a cold 2nd half. Plains and N rockies will be frigid. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 4, 2022 Share Posted November 4, 2022 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: That doesn't look like a bad forecast for this November either. We're going to prob finish above normal here because the first 10 days are so warm, but it could get close if we have a cold 2nd half. Plains and N rockies will be frigid. That’s Nina . Looks just like last year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted November 4, 2022 Share Posted November 4, 2022 2 hours ago, Ginx snewx said: You missed 02 03 In SNE. It was mostly a suppression session here (snowfall nearly 2 feet BN) though the consistent cold made for decent retention - along with killing my peach tree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 4, 2022 Share Posted November 4, 2022 7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: That’s Nina . Looks just like last year Those are November composites. Not winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 4, 2022 Share Posted November 4, 2022 10 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Those are November composites. Not winter. I meant Novie. I could be wrong .. but didn’t last Novie look very similar with frigid N Plains? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now