Winter 2022-2023 Conjecture

[knight_raven]

Hey guys,
 

I am from syracuse ny. But I follow the winter stuff in all the regions to see how it may play out.

I wanted to pop a message in here of thanks to you all. I really appreciate your posts and postulations on what may come. I know that forecasting isn't an exact science, and you all get pilloried for it regardless of what the actual weather is.

Know you are all appreciated and read with interest every day by this enthusiast from upstate ny! Good luck this year, and may the snow gods ever blow in your favor!

 

-Mike

[Typhoon Tip]

Ha ha... this is like new inductee night at AA in here sometimes...

"Hi, my name is Mike, and I'm a winterholic"

"HI Mike, mike mike", over lapping, fading.   

[DavisStraight]

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Ha ha... this is like new inductee night at AA in here sometimes...

"Hi, my name is Mike, and I'm a winterholic"

"HI Mike, mike mike", over lapping, fading.   

Anyone else want to share?

[WxWatcher007]

21 minutes ago, DavisStraight said:

Anyone else want to share?

Hi, I'm WxWatcher, and I have a love-hate relationship with Winter.

Winter and I had an ugly divorce almost a decade ago when I lived in DC. I moved back home to New England afterward, but things have barely changed.

Will Winter ever treat me right again? I'm tired of waiting until next year for reconciliation. 

[knight_raven]

6 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Ha ha... this is like new inductee night at AA in here sometimes...

"Hi, my name is Mike, and I'm a winterholic"

"HI Mike, mike mike", over lapping, fading.   

Dude, have we met? and the coffee has to be changed around here, it tastes like ass.

[8611Blizz]

It's been 239 days since I last used snow or ice...

[Typhoon Tip]

4 hours ago, knight_raven said:

Dude, have we met? and the coffee has to be changed around here, it tastes like ass.

If you want to survive in here… you can’t take it personally. Lol

 

[stadiumwave]

Latest CFS Weeklies AO & NAO forecast

 

As seen above changes begin middle of NOV. 500mb to end NOV through mid-DEC looks good on that update:

[snowman19]

FWIW the new CANSIPS goes with a cold December then RNA/SE ridge, game over for everyone south of New England come January 

 

[WinterWolf]

2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

FWIW the new CANSIPS goes with a cold December then RNA/SE ridge, game over for everyone south of New England come January 

 

If you believe that, then Darn, that sucks for you guys down there, Hopefully 23-24 will be better for you.  

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Cansips deez nuts. 

[snowman19]

3 hours ago, WinterWolf said:

If you believe that, then Darn, that sucks for you guys down there, Hopefully 23-24 will be better for you.  

I don’t believe anything, simply stating what that particular model run showed lol

[George001]

 

7 hours ago, snowman19 said:

FWIW the new CANSIPS goes with a cold December then RNA/SE ridge, game over for everyone south of New England come January 

 

January looks great to me, I doubt most on this thread will care that DC and Philly gets screwed in that pattern because we live in New England. Just like how the DC and Philly folks were happy (rightfully so, who cheers on snow for people living hundreds of miles away?) when they cashed in and we got screwed 2009-2010. It it’s not a Feb 2015 look with 2-3 feet blizzards every week obviously but that doesn’t make it bad. The SE ridge actually helps to prevent suppression, and there’s poleward Aleutian ridging, so it would probably be a cold snowy pattern for us on the right side of the gradient with a foot here, a foot there while DC and Philly rain. I live in New England, so Im a big fan of the January h5 look, hell even your area in NYC the January pattern looks decent. As for Feb I agree, that looks rough.

[snowman19]

7 hours ago, George001 said:

 

January looks great to me, I doubt most on this thread will care that DC and Philly gets screwed in that pattern because we live in New England. Just like how the DC and Philly folks were happy (rightfully so, who cheers on snow for people living hundreds of miles away?) when they cashed in and we got screwed 2009-2010. It it’s not a Feb 2015 look with 2-3 feet blizzards every week obviously but that doesn’t make it bad. The SE ridge actually helps to prevent suppression, and there’s poleward Aleutian ridging, so it would probably be a cold snowy pattern for us on the right side of the gradient with a foot here, a foot there while DC and Philly rain. I live in New England, so Im a big fan of the January h5 look, hell even your area in NYC the January pattern looks decent. As for Feb I agree, that looks rough.

In a “typical” canonical La Niña, February is the warmest month with forcing over the Maritime Continent/IO. Mid-late January usually starts the warmer pattern. March is really a toss up in Nina’s, some warm, some cold

[40/70 Benchmark]

Probably going to be out sometime next week....seeing some issues emerging with my sensible weather composites that is causing me to revisit those. They were working very well all summer and into the early fall, but are shitting the bed as the wavelengths grow. Frustrating on the one hand, but it also clears up some conflict that existed between the sensible weather and ENSO composites.

ENSO angle is and has been clear for months.

Back into hiberation ballz deep in data.

[40/70 Benchmark]

10 hours ago, George001 said:

 

January looks great to me, I doubt most on this thread will care that DC and Philly gets screwed in that pattern because we live in New England. Just like how the DC and Philly folks were happy (rightfully so, who cheers on snow for people living hundreds of miles away?) when they cashed in and we got screwed 2009-2010. It it’s not a Feb 2015 look with 2-3 feet blizzards every week obviously but that doesn’t make it bad. The SE ridge actually helps to prevent suppression, and there’s poleward Aleutian ridging, so it would probably be a cold snowy pattern for us on the right side of the gradient with a foot here, a foot there while DC and Philly rain. I live in New England, so Im a big fan of the January h5 look, hell even your area in NYC the January pattern looks decent. As for Feb I agree, that looks rough.

Its just about impossible to not have a shitty month in a basin wide mod nina.

[Allsnow]

I think good December with a decent first half of January. Then we will see if we get some strat help to save February south of sne. 
 

NNE and Sne I feel will have a solid winter overall 

[George001]

9 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Its just about impossible to not have a shitty month in a basin wide mod nina.

Agreed, it’s not realistic to expect a wall to wall winter. Even if we get 2 shitty months, if we capitalize in the other 2 months we can still get a very good winter. The big question is if we will be able to capitalize or not on the windows of opportunity we do get. I’m looking forward to reading your winter forecast and hearing your thoughts on what to expect this coming winter.

[40/70 Benchmark]

28 minutes ago, George001 said:

Agreed, it’s not realistic to expect a wall to wall winter. Even if we get 2 shitty months, if we capitalize in the other 2 months we can still get a very good winter. The big question is if we will be able to capitalize or not on the windows of opportunity we do get. I’m looking forward to reading your winter forecast and hearing your thoughts on what to expect this coming winter.

TBH, it's not realistic in SNE in any season....even 2014-2015 and 1995-1996 had relative down periods 

[ORH_wxman]

9 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

TBH, it's not realistic in SNE in any season....even 2014-2015 and 1995-1996 had relative down periods 

Yeah it's not really feasible to go wire to wire. 1995-1996 did have all 4 big snow months above normal (Dec/Jan/Feb/Mar) but we obviously had that brutal thaw in 2nd half of January. 

2000-2001 over the interior did as well. That year is prob the closest since it didn't have any brutal thaws after the 12/17/00 cutter (there were two small snow events in the week after that too which saved white Xmas)

Only other one off the top of my head was maybe 1960-1961.

'04-'05, '92-'93, and '93-'94 were all close but no cigar. They all had one month that was more like average instead of above avg.

 

'07-'08 prob pulled it off in NNE.

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

19 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah it's not really feasible to go wire to wire. 1995-1996 did have all 4 big snow months above normal (Dec/Jan/Feb/Mar) but we obviously had that brutal thaw in 2nd half of January. 

2000-2001 over the interior did as well. That year is prob the closest since it didn't have any brutal thaws after the 12/17/00 cutter (there were two small snow events in the week after that too which saved white Xmas)

Only other one off the top of my head was maybe 1960-1961.

'04-'05, '92-'93, and '93-'94 were all close but no cigar. They all had one month that was more like average instead of above avg.

 

'07-'08 prob pulled it off in NNE.

 

NNE is a different ballgame...totally possible there.

[ORH_wxman]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

NNE is a different ballgame...totally possible there.

Forgot about '76-77 too....prob pulled it off in your 'hood. ORH fell just short because of December. But 12/29/76 crushed the 128 belt out east.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Forgot about '76-77 too....prob pulled it off in your 'hood. ORH fell just short because of December. But 12/29/76 crushed the 128 belt out east.

Yea, I was thinking of that one...pretty consistent cold, though it lacked the real big dog signature event.

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, I was thinking of that one...pretty consistent cold, though it lacked the real big dog signature event.

12/29 was pretty huge but only in a narrow zone from N RI to metrowest BOS suburbs where several places had 18"+.....we just lacked a region-wide big dog.

Jan '77 had some SWFEs on 'roids and a late bloomer miller B, but still not high end top 10 type stuff.

[40/70 Benchmark]

11 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

12/29 was pretty huge but only in a narrow zone from N RI to metrowest BOS suburbs where several places had 18"+.....we just lacked a region-wide big dog.

Jan '77 had some SWFEs on 'roids and a late bloomer miller B, but still not high end top 10 type stuff.

Yea, it had a pretty high-end deal for my area, but I meant more regionally.

[snowman19]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, it had a pretty high-end deal for my area, but I meant more regionally.

Good call on the basin wide moderate La Niña. I never bought strong but I did think a higher end moderate Niña was possible, didn’t happen

[40/70 Benchmark]

50 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Good call on the basin wide moderate La Niña. I never bought strong but I did think a higher end moderate Niña was possible, didn’t happen

Thanks, man.

It became clear to me during my IOD research back in August.

Using the Indian Ocean as a Predictor of ENSO | Eastern Mass Weather

Its probably not a big deal, but it maybe related to why this event became a bit more east-based, as well. The fact that it was so stagnant really helped to facilitate the development of the negative subsurface anomalies in the western end of ENSO. This was bordering on Modoki until August...I began get a bit more optimistic for winter later in the summer and into the fall due to this...pending results of my sensible analog recalibration.

[tamarack]

3 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah it's not really feasible to go wire to wire. 1995-1996 did have all 4 big snow months above normal (Dec/Jan/Feb/Mar) but we obviously had that brutal thaw in 2nd half of January. 

2000-2001 over the interior did as well. That year is prob the closest since it didn't have any brutal thaws after the 12/17/00 cutter (there were two small snow events in the week after that too which saved white Xmas)

Only other one off the top of my head was maybe 1960-1961.

'04-'05, '92-'93, and '93-'94 were all close but no cigar. They all had one month that was more like average instead of above avg.

 

'07-'08 prob pulled it off in NNE.

 

07-08 is my only winter in which DJFM all had AN snow.  The next year was AN for the met winter months but died with the early March underperformer.  00-01 was probably #2 for wall-to-wall, with all 4 cold months having BN temps, though Jan was BN for snow.  The record March snow resulted in a 4' pack on 3/31.

60-61 had the good stuff all packed into 8-9 weeks, beginning 2nd week of Dec and was pretty much exhausted after the early Feb blizzard.  It also had a classic ENE-type awful April, cloudy, cool and wet.

92-93 and 04-05 were half winters.  The Farmington co-op actually was down to just traces OG in late Jan and reached 56" (tied for second deepest) after the Superstorm.  Early winter 04-05 was cold but the 1st event of 4"+ waited until Feb 10-11, when a 21" dump (with some thunder) launched a 31-day stretch with 60". 

93-94 had the best retention of the 13 winters in Gardiner but missed the MA/SNE storms in Feb.

Both 13-14 and 16-17 were excellent for NNE though Januarys were poor (17) to awful (14, with BN temp, AN precip, least snowy January).

[michsnowfreak]

1 hour ago, tamarack said:

07-08 is my only winter in which DJFM all had AN snow.  The next year was AN for the met winter months but died with the early March underperformer.  00-01 was probably #2 for wall-to-wall, with all 4 cold months having BN temps, though Jan was BN for snow.  The record March snow resulted in a 4' pack on 3/31.

60-61 had the good stuff all packed into 8-9 weeks, beginning 2nd week of Dec and was pretty much exhausted after the early Feb blizzard.  It also had a classic ENE-type awful April, cloudy, cool and wet.

92-93 and 04-05 were half winters.  The Farmington co-op actually was down to just traces OG in late Jan and reached 56" (tied for second deepest) after the Superstorm.  Early winter 04-05 was cold but the 1st event of 4"+ waited until Feb 10-11, when a 21" dump (with some thunder) launched a 31-day stretch with 60". 

93-94 had the best retention of the 13 winters in Gardiner but missed the MA/SNE storms in Feb.

Both 13-14 and 16-17 were excellent for NNE though Januarys were poor (17) to awful (14, with BN temp, AN precip, least snowy January).

Did I read that right, that January 2014 was your least snowy January???  It was the snowiest January on record at Detroit with 39.1".

[tamarack]

4 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

Did I read that right, that January 2014 was your least snowy January???  It was the snowiest January on record at Detroit with 39.1".

'Fraid so.  Temp was 3.6° BN, precip 120% of average, and the 5.1" snow was 26% of average.  Thru Jan 14th there had been 2.1" snow, 3,29" precip (and another 0.17" RA on the 15th but that day's +18 temp dragged the month average to just 4.6° BN), and temp running 6.2° BN.  Those are near-impossible trifectas.
Farmington co-op was even worse for snow, with just 4.3", ranking 129th of 130 Januarys there and only 0.3" more than the "champion", 1992.