tamarack Posted October 27, 2022 Share Posted October 27, 2022 12 hours ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Boxing day was a good storm here. Must have had a foot and a half or so. Nice 8" event here, verified blizz for BGR, WVL, AUG with 12-15". Wife had a follow-up (for knee replacement surgery) at PWM, and we had S- as we headed south. Entered the white tunnel south of Belgrade Village and it got progressively narrower as we continued. With some time to spare, we chose to stop at the Wendy's near I-95 for lunch, hoping the blizz would calm down. (In vain, we ended up calling the Dr office to cancel.) Wind was the strongest in which we tried to walk since Bob, and during gusts (50+ likely) the Irving station next door would disappear. An unfortunate cameraman from BGR ch5 was trying to film the storm and with the big camera adding resistance, he was having a tough time of it. As we headed home, it took less than 5 miles to pop out of the blizz band and back into S- with light winds. Wash/rinse/repeat for Jan 12 (though w/o the Dr appt) as the 3 cities again had verified blizz while I was driving around AUG and then home. Rate was heavier than Boxing Day but winds much less, seemed below blizz conditions to me. Nice 7.3" at home, another 10-15" 25-30 miles south and east. Then a 1.5" fringe from the late month KU. Had more snow in Feb than Jan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 27, 2022 Author Share Posted October 27, 2022 4 hours ago, snowman19 said: And just like that all the hype on Twitter about Eurasian snowcover, recurving super typhoons and GOA/western North America warm blobs stopped: Almost as fast the hype about the intensifying la nina. I mention the SAI, but I certainly do not base my entire forecast off of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stadiumwave Posted October 27, 2022 Share Posted October 27, 2022 Golden thread from Eric Webb. I highly encourage a click & read. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted October 27, 2022 Share Posted October 27, 2022 4 hours ago, CoastalWx said: Well the toughing gets replaced by ridging in AK so that looks like a change to me. Also, nobody cares about Eurasian snow cover any more. I don't care if the snowpack extending into Beijing, it means jack dick to me. Yes. I never believed the whole snowcover theory either. It’s just funny how certain things only get hyped to no end on Twitter when perceived “favorable” then when they are not, crickets 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 27, 2022 Share Posted October 27, 2022 Joe D is doing a snowfall contest. BDL BOS ORH PVD yearly guesses. [email protected] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 27, 2022 Share Posted October 27, 2022 1 hour ago, stadiumwave said: Golden thread from Eric Webb. I highly encourage a click & read. I talked about the MJO earlier...I think the suppressed phase in WPAC last a bit longer than some guidance has. Eric alluded to that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 29, 2022 Author Share Posted October 29, 2022 DT is going big...on the Cosgrove train. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 29, 2022 Share Posted October 29, 2022 3 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: DT is going big...on the Cosgrove train. Just great Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted October 29, 2022 Share Posted October 29, 2022 9 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: DT is going big...on the Cosgrove train. It’s literally the same exact forecast year after year from DT…he always says whatever ENSO event (Niña/Nino) we are in is going to die very quickly, it won’t matter by mid-winter and it’s going to be cold and snowy on the east coast. He’s predicted the last 5 winters in a row to be cold and snowy with blocking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 29, 2022 Author Share Posted October 29, 2022 2 hours ago, snowman19 said: It’s literally the same exact forecast year after year from DT…he always says whatever ENSO event (Niña/Nino) we are in is going to die very quickly, it won’t matter by mid-winter and it’s going to be cold and snowy on the east coast. He’s predicted the last 5 winters in a row to be cold and snowy with blocking I will admit, I feel like ENSO dying early is a fraudulent, weenie rationale bc there is a lag, anyway. It can help with PNA late, I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted October 29, 2022 Share Posted October 29, 2022 2 hours ago, snowman19 said: It’s literally the same exact forecast year after year from DT…he always says whatever ENSO event (Niña/Nino) we are in is going to die very quickly, it won’t matter by mid-winter and it’s going to be cold and snowy on the east coast. He’s predicted the last 5 winters in a row to be cold and snowy with blocking Amusing... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bristolri_wx Posted October 29, 2022 Share Posted October 29, 2022 Who are the recommended forecasters to follow outside of this forum for long range/winter forecasts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted October 29, 2022 Share Posted October 29, 2022 13 minutes ago, bristolri_wx said: Who are the recommended forecasters to follow outside of this forum for long range/winter forecasts? To be honest, although I'm only a " weather enthusiast " lol...... I've been following weather since I was kid. So it's been a while ( I'm 50 now ). With that said, I've seen many a forecasts from very good meteorologists that did not come to fruition. Weather is a very tough thing to forecast in the future. Look at a couple years ago when we were sure we were going to have a more than decent winter during the fall time, and it just didn't pan out ( things didn't fall into place or something happened with one of the weather patterns that wasn't expected ). I have learned to love the weather and accept the surprises it would bring us throughout the months. That way there's no disappointment ( well.. at least it is a smaller blow to the gut ). I think a lot of people follow these forecasts like their gold, and get so disappointed and so upset with these meteorologists and call them idiots...... well I kind of laugh at that, because here we are, not professionals, and criticizing these people for just following the model guidance and their experience that they have. Are there some that tend to hype? Yes there are. But I'm pretty stoked to see what happens this winter. I know they'll be some surprises, and know they'll be some disappointments. Only time will tell. Justy feelings on forecasting itself. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 29, 2022 Author Share Posted October 29, 2022 26 minutes ago, bristolri_wx said: Who are the recommended forecasters to follow outside of this forum for long range/winter forecasts? Larry Cosgrove. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 29, 2022 Share Posted October 29, 2022 On 10/27/2022 at 11:22 AM, snowman19 said: Yes. I never believed the whole snowcover theory either. It’s just funny how certain things only get hyped to no end on Twitter when perceived “favorable” then when they are not, crickets This is how people are, anyway, regardless of genre/context. The Internet 'socializing' just pulls that specific human attribute out and particularly showcases it - lol... No, but regardless of domain, people don't take responsibility very willingly for what they don't want to perceive as being true. It's not just a weather thing. It got society into trouble when they couldn't/didnt want to believe the hype behind a certain president's chances to be elected, and being unable to do so... cost the election - probably.... I mean lots of moving parts there, but all gears grinding, the 'threat' was ignored or at minimum, not taken seriously enough. Boom. Just an example. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bristolri_wx Posted October 29, 2022 Share Posted October 29, 2022 42 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Larry Cosgrove. Just him? I see others discussed but sometimes it’s by initials or partial names. Just curious… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 29, 2022 Author Share Posted October 29, 2022 49 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: This is how people are, anyway, regardless of genre/context. The Internet 'socializing' just pulls that specific human attribute out and particularly showcases it - lol... No, but regardless of domain, people don't take responsibility very willingly for what they don't want to perceive as being true. It's not just a weather thing. It got society into trouble when they couldn't/didnt want to believe the hype behind a certain president's chances to be elected, and being unable to do so... cost the election - probably.... I mean lots of moving parts there, but all gears grinding, the 'threat' was ignored or at minimum, not taken seriously enough. Boom. Just an example. Not to detract from your overall point, but the SAI is a rather poor example...at least today. Many have reached the point that I have and don't make a huge deal out of it either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 29, 2022 Author Share Posted October 29, 2022 15 minutes ago, bristolri_wx said: Just him? I see others discussed but sometimes it’s by initials or partial names. Just curious… He and raindance are the only two that I take seriously TBH. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 29, 2022 Author Share Posted October 29, 2022 Its human nature, though...people display more emotion and have more energy when they witness an appealing result. You don't see the crowd go wild when the visiting team hits a homerun...doesn't mean they are immersed in psychosis or in any sort of denial. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted October 29, 2022 Share Posted October 29, 2022 2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I will admit, I feel like ENSO dying early is a fraudulent, weenie rationale bc there is a lag, anyway. It can help with PNA late, I guess. I agree. When doesn’t any ENSO event not die during the winter? Every Niña or Nino normally peaks between October and December then fades out during the winter. That’s 100% a normal progression. And yes there is a lag whether certain people want to admit it or not 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 29, 2022 Author Share Posted October 29, 2022 On 10/24/2022 at 9:06 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said: That, and I also think that the current SSTs belie the fact that the atmosphere is beginning to part ways with what is a very stagnant cold ENSO event.....its almost akin to how winds transfer to the surface more readily in an intensifying tropical system, as opposed to weakening or even steady-state systems. The mechanisms that foster the development of ENSO are what also fuel the associated IOD response and couple with the atmosphere. In a season like this one, while we still have a well coupled event on paper, much of that is residual and more a reflection of what had been...kind of like SSTs being shaped by a previous H5 pattern. I think a lot of this la nina right now is merely an atmospheric imprint of the previous couple of years. At least this is how I perceived the research that I conducted on the relationship between ENSO and the IOD. This goes along with what John is saying, although I think his attribution is probably more geared towards CC than mine. Well, this event is going to fade somewhat faster than average and I do think it's rather stagnant, as described above. 36 minutes ago, snowman19 said: I agree. When doesn’t any ENSO event not die during the winter? Every Niña or Nino normally peaks between October and December then fades out during the winter. That’s 100% a normal progression. And yes there is a lag whether certain people want to admit it or not 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted October 29, 2022 Share Posted October 29, 2022 7 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Larry Cosgrove. I remember getting his morning newsletter back in the 2000-2007 years. Used to love waking up reading that before school haha. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 29, 2022 Share Posted October 29, 2022 5 minutes ago, Heisy said: I remember getting his morning newsletter back in the 2000-2007 years. Used to love waking up reading that before school haha. Ray loves the guy. IMO .. he’s not good . To each their own Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 29, 2022 Share Posted October 29, 2022 Stein Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted October 29, 2022 Share Posted October 29, 2022 8 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Ray loves the guy. IMO .. he’s not good . To each their own Yea regardless whether he’s good or not, just a nostalgic thought. My morning ritual during my high school days back during those years was wake up at 6, read his newsletter, check wright-weather, and double check the LR AVN/MRF whatever it was called back in those days haha (GFS) BTW this year I don’t plan any chases up near you guys unless there’s some crazy HECS like 2013 level on the models. I got my fill during last years blizzard. I would like to go LES chasing. Never experienced a major LES event. can’t believe we just about finally made it to November, let’s gooooo. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bristolri_wx Posted October 30, 2022 Share Posted October 30, 2022 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: Ray loves the guy. IMO .. he’s not good . To each their own So who is good IYO? It was a question geared towards anyone who wanted to answer... and we know the answer is not "Joe Bastardi" lol... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bristolri_wx Posted October 30, 2022 Share Posted October 30, 2022 This was interesting... https://www.severe-weather.eu/long-range-2/winter-season-2022-2023-forecast-october-update-united-states-canada-europe-fa/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 30, 2022 Author Share Posted October 30, 2022 2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: Ray loves the guy. IMO .. he’s not good . To each their own He's nailed the last couple years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 30, 2022 Share Posted October 30, 2022 10 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Not to detract from your overall point, but the SAI is a rather poor example...at least today. Many have reached the point that I have and don't make a huge deal out of it either way. SAI? what you lost me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 30, 2022 Author Share Posted October 30, 2022 49 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: SAI? what you lost me Snow Advance Index...its what snowman was commenting on when you responded to him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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