Winter 2022-2023 Conjecture

[Ginx snewx]

On 10/21/2022 at 8:21 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I personally feel like the PDO is overrated, anyway.....the PNA, which is what is really important, can be out of sync with it quite often. PNA and EPO are where its at IMHO.

PDO is a longer term, multi-decadal signal, like the AMO....its not really as important from a forecasting standpoint.

Yep let's neggie EPO for 15 weeks

[MJO812]

7 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Yep let's neggie EPO for 15 weeks

Pants tent

[40/70 Benchmark]

11 hours ago, stadiumwave said:

 

What happened to him? He ok?

He lurks...just won't post or reply.

[Typhoon Tip]

He got picked up by a major forecasting/energy market firm and per his hiring he had to commit to an NDA.  His thoughts and methods can't both be free, while defaulting to proprietary inclusion into the employing organization - so there's no sense in engaging in here.  

He made it out in other words...  For the rest of you, keep trying and maybe one day you'll get adopted too -

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

He got picked up by a major forecasting/energy market firm and per his hiring he had to commit to an NDA.  His thoughts and methods can't both be free, while defaulting to proprietary inclusion in the employing organization - so there's no sense in engaging in here.  

He made it out in other words...  For the rest of you, keep trying and maybe one day you'll get adopted too -

I don't understand the issue with just telling people that....he'd posted here for years and its seems odd to just disappear, yet still creep in the background. As far as making it out....I'm out and where I want to be family and career wise, so at least for me, jealousy isn't the motivation. 

Weather is a toy for me...albeit a time consuming one, and I am okay with that.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I hope he did get hired because he is one of the most talented seasonal forecasters that I know of. Close between him, raindance and Cosgrove. 

[Go Kart Mozart]

6 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

He made it out in other words...  For the rest of you, keep trying and maybe one day you'll get adopted too -

I think we're gonna lose George next.

[stadiumwave]

September 1 - October 21 500mb

 

 

Can't really find any La Nina years for the same period resembling a match.

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, stadiumwave said:

September 1 - October 21 500mb

 

 

Can't really find any La Nina years for the same period resembling a match.

 

There are for temp and precip anomalies.

[stadiumwave]

6 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

There are for temp and precip anomalies.

 

For the Northern Hemisphere or regional? Regional temp & precip may be misleading. I like to look for similar pieces in the entire northern hemisphere. 

[Typhoon Tip]

6 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

There are for temp and precip anomalies.

Mm Likely a coincidence, tho.  Results don’t dictate cause - haha I mean not intending to dictate here lol

No but two thunderstorms created by entirely different mechanisms produced the similar amt if rain ? Think of it that way. 

[Typhoon Tip]

8 hours ago, stadiumwave said:

September 1 - October 21 500mb

 

 

Can't really find any La Nina years for the same period resembling a match.

 

I honestly struggle with believing what we’ve/are observing so far this autumn has much to do with ENSO. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

20 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Mm Likely a coincidence, tho.  Results don’t dictate cause - haha I mean not intending to dictate here lol

No but two thunderstorms created by entirely different mechanisms produced the similar amt if rain ? Think of it that way. 

I'm not sure there is ever going to be another scenario where will you will assuredly attribute ENSO as the primary causation lol, and that is the god's honest truth. That said, I agree this particular ENSO event is growing less relevant by the week....anyway, my cool ENSO concurrent analogs are just intended to capture what is and is going to happen, so I'm not too concerned about causation in that respect.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, stadiumwave said:

 

For the Northern Hemisphere or regional? Regional temp & precip may be misleading. I like to look for similar pieces in the entire northern hemisphere. 

US. 

I think there there is value in both because concurrent sensible weather analogs can't capture the MJO cycle.  A bunch of H5 plots are great, and the hemispheric pattern obviously shouldn't be neglected, but what is actually happening is kind of a big deal as well. within the context of seasonal forecasting. This is one change I have made this season...I feel like just viewing H5 charts can cause one to miss the forest through the trees when forecasting.

[ORH_wxman]

45 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I honestly struggle with believing what we’ve/are observing so far this autumn has much to do with ENSO. 

Yeah I'd agree. 

ENSO tends to be more influential in the cold season anyway for North America. First, ENSO nadir is usually late spring or early summer, and then you have the 2-3 month lag for sensible wx affects, and on top of that, the weaker gradients in warm season just don't respond to any tropical forcing that stronger gradients (cold season) do.

[40/70 Benchmark]

19 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah I'd agree. 

ENSO tends to be more influential in the cold season anyway for North America. First, ENSO nadir is usually late spring or early summer, and then you have the 2-3 month lag for sensible wx affects, and on top of that, the weaker gradients in warm season just don't respond to any tropical forcing that stronger gradients (cold season) do.

That, and I also think that the current SSTs belie the fact that the atmosphere is beginning to part ways with what is a very stagnant cold ENSO event.....its almost akin to how winds transfer to the surface more readily in an intensifying tropical system, as opposed to weakening or even steady-state systems. The mechanisms that foster the development of ENSO are what also fuel the associated IOD response and couple with the atmosphere. In a season like this one, while we still have a well coupled event on paper, much of that is residual and more a reflection of what had been...kind of like SSTs being shaped by a previous H5 pattern. I think a lot of this la nina right now is merely an atmospheric imprint of the previous couple of years. At least this is how I perceived the research that I conducted on the relationship between ENSO and the IOD.

This goes along with what John is saying, although I think his attribution is probably more geared towards CC than mine.

[stadiumwave]

 

[snowman19]

1 hour ago, stadiumwave said:

 

Yes, there is mounting evidence that late November and December are cold, i.e. a true front-loaded canonical La Niña, typical with Maritime Continent forcing. However, Maritime Continent forcing works well until you get into the end of December and January/February with the wavelength change, then it’s torch city

[WinterWolf]

32 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Yes, there is mounting evidence that late November and December are cold, i.e. a true front-loaded canonical La Niña, typical with Maritime Continent forcing. However, Maritime Continent forcing works well until you get into the end of December and January/February with the wavelength change, then it’s torch city

I know you love being the big TERD in the punch bowl, but Let’s see what actually sets up, before we say torch city etc for January and February.  Many times things take longer to establish themselves, and hang on longer than we all think. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

21 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

I know you love being the big TERD in the punch bowl, but Let’s see what actually sets up, before we say torch city etc for January and February.  Many times things take longer to establish themselves, and hang on longer than we all think. 

There are also variations of that....the really good la nina events,  like 2010-2011, which is a decent analog, remained favorable through most of January.

[stadiumwave]

35 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

There are also variations of that....the really good la nina events,  like 2010-2011, which is a decent analog, remained favorable through most of January.

 

Yes, it was February before winter ended. 

[WinterWolf]

35 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

There are also variations of that....the really good la nina events,  like 2010-2011, which is a decent analog, remained favorable through most of January.

That’s exactly what I was thinking about(2010-2011), but I didn’t want to come out and say that, for fear of being called a wishcaster.
 

 I remember Bastardi back then forecasting a heavily front ended winter for ‘10-11, and said if we didn’t get the goods by the end of December, we were probably toast.  He was humbled by what happened that winter, and admitted as much.  

[40/70 Benchmark]

27 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

That’s exactly what I was thinking about(2010-2011), but I didn’t want to come out and say that, for fear of being called a wishcaster.
 

 I remember Bastardi back then forecasting a heavily front ended winter for ‘10-11, and said if we didn’t get the goods by the end of December, we were probably toast.  He was humbled by what happened that winter, and admitted as much.  

We got lucky in that there was an absolutely exquisite handoff from the neg NAO to the +PNA....it def. didn't have to end up that good, and probably wouldn't the majority of the time if we were to run it again. Point being, its a decent analog, but I don't expect 95".

[raindancewx]

20 hours ago, stadiumwave said:

September 1 - October 21 500mb

 

 

Can't really find any La Nina years for the same period resembling a match.

 

It looks fairly similar to 2012 if I remember right. I vaguely remember thinking the Fall looked like a progression of 1988/2001/2012 but I haven't looked in a week or so.

[40/70 Benchmark]

11 minutes ago, raindancewx said:

It looks fairly similar to 2012 if I remember right. I vaguely remember thinking the Fall looked like a progression of 1988/2001/2012 but I haven't looked in a week or so.

Agree.

[snowman19]

2 hours ago, WinterWolf said:

I know you love being the big TERD in the punch bowl, but Let’s see what actually sets up, before we say torch city etc for January and February.  Many times things take longer to establish themselves, and hang on longer than we all think. 

Actually for New England, you can get away with Maritime Continent forcing, I mean when isn’t New England not in the game for winter weather? Eastern IO forcing? Game over. But I would not want to live anywhere south of New England come January if the forcing is over the Maritime Continent 

[40/70 Benchmark]

20 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Actually for New England, you can get away with Maritime Continent forcing, I mean when isn’t New England not in the game for winter weather? Eastern IO forcing? Game over. But I would not want to live anywhere south of New England come January if the forcing is over the Maritime Continent 

Something tells me you'd love to live south of New England in that instance. 

[raindancewx]

I was travelling through the middle of the country recently and asking people about the driest years on the Mississippi. That's kind of like a "memory" reservoir of recent US weather - snow, heat, rain, etc. A lot of the people told me that the lowest levels for river are years like 1988 - so I do think I'm on the right track with a decent winter out here. 

https://earthsky.org/earth/mississippi-river-hits-record-low-levels-2022/

I had a bunch of stuff like this in my forecast, but I trimmed it out, since we have virtually no one on here who cares about water trends in the middle of the US.

Though the low level of the Mississippi this year is unprecedented in modern history, it’s normal, however, to see lower levels in the mighty river at this time of year, around areas such as Memphis. To be sure, during late summer and early fall, the waters can run low after hot and dry summers.

Previously, the low-level record at Memphis was at -10.7 feet on July 10, 1988. Later, two other record lows happened on August 30, 2006, and September 19, 2012.

[snowman19]

2 hours ago, stadiumwave said:

 

Yes, it was February before winter ended. 

The blocking started breaking down around mid-January and by the last week of the month, that winter was over

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

The blocking started breaking down around mid-January and by the last week of the month, that winter was over

No, the PNA took over and we rocked into early Feb.