Winter 2022-2023 Conjecture

[DavisStraight]

3 hours ago, George001 said:

Yeah I don’t understand the anti La Niña sentiment among snow weenies especially NYC north. The negative PDO just means the Nina is coupled or acting like a Nina right? If so then yeah the PDO will probably negative again this year because we have a La Niña and the MEI is -1.8. That will probably drop some but if the models have the right idea the Nina should be well coupled and act like a Nina, which really isn’t anything to be afraid for weenies NYC north. Didnt pretty much everywhere NYC north get buried 2010-2011? My area got around double our average snowfall that year.

Your area got nailed that year, we were right on the edge or just out for the big ones.

[CoastalWx]

35 minutes ago, DavisStraight said:

Your area got nailed that year, we were right on the edge or just out for the big ones.

You guys did great that winter. Are you sure aren’t thinking of another winter?

[DavisStraight]

6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

You guys did great that winter. Are you sure aren’t thinking of another winter?

I'm thinking of the winter of the snowicane where we got rain and NYC got nailed.

[weathafella]

43 minutes ago, DavisStraight said:

I'm thinking of the winter of the snowicane where we got rain and NYC got nailed.

That's 2009-10.  2010-11 was pretty strong in the snow department and that's what he was referring to.

[ice1972]

6 minutes ago, weathafella said:

That's 2009-10.  2010-11 was pretty strong in the snow department and that's what he was referring to.

2010-11 my favorite one since moving here 2004…….especially Jan 2011 and October 2011. Holy moly

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Where do I sign? 

With urine in the snow on snowman19's lawn

[CoastalWx]

7 hours ago, weathafella said:

That's 2009-10.  2010-11 was pretty strong in the snow department and that's what he was referring to.

Yeah that makes sense now. 2010-2011 is one of the great region wide crush jobs. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

I personally feel like the PDO is overrated, anyway.....the PNA, which is what is really important, can be out of sync with it quite often. PNA and EPO are where its at IMHO.

PDO is a longer term, multi-decadal signal, like the AMO....its not really as important from a forecasting standpoint.

[SnowGoose69]

19 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

2010-11 also had a severely negative PDO and it's actually a pretty solid analog, so, yes, I don't understand the gnashing of teeth about the topic right now

no one variable is the end-all-be-all with seasonal forecasting

10-11 much like 93-94 and 95-96 may have been a lag impact from a strong and triple/borderline quadruple dip Nino respectively in that those seasons as far as STJ or storminess acted like Ninos despite being Nina/Neutral/Nina

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, SnowGoose69 said:

10-11 much like 93-94 and 95-96 may have been a lag impact from a strong and triple/borderline quadruple dip Nino respectively in that those seasons as far as STJ or storminess acted like Ninos despite being Nina/Neutral/Nina

92-93 wasn't el nino...

I wouldn't summarily toss the STJ idea with all of the water vapor released into the atmosphere from the volcano.

[CoastalWx]

54 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

92-93 wasn't el nino...

I wouldn't summarily toss the STJ idea with all of the water vapor released into the atmosphere from the volcano.

From what I read, Tonga tossed water vapor into the stratosphere, and the anomalies were more impressive higher up in the stratosphere vs lower stratosphere. So, there may not be much of a coupling into the troposphere. 

[brooklynwx99]

 

regarding Hunga Tonga, it actually looks like there is a correlation between years with a much cooler than average SH stratosphere and a -NAO early in the year

the blog post that highlights this: https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-weather/cold-anomaly-stratosphere-polar-vortex-volcanic-cooling-winter-influence-fa/

this bolsters the analogs that myself and some others have in mind that show early blocking, like 2020-21, 2010-11, 2000-01, 2017-18, and 2021-22

[dryslot]

If the last 2 yrs were not garbage, When i would here 2009-10 i would want to go outside and throat punch the first person i would see.

[Snowcrazed71]

[40/70 Benchmark]

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2022/10/growing-consensus-current-enso.html

 

Growing Consensus & Current ENSO Evolution Bolster Forecast Confidence Heading Into Winter

La Nina Nearing Peak 

The prevailing theme throughout this past summer and into boreal autumn was that the on-going multiyear cool ENSO event had stagnated, and that continues to be the case here in the latter third of the month of October. In fact, the only reach change in the character of this particular la Nina since August is that it is now an eastward leaning basin-wide event, as opposed to westward leaning, since the coolest anomalies have shifted from the western half to the eastern half. This is evidenced by the both the latest visual plot, which now has the deepest blue (coolest) anomalies centered over the eastern half of the ENSO domain, encompassing regions 3 and 1.2:

 

 

 

 

And the latest tabular weekly data as of October 12th, which has the anomaly on the eastern flank of region 1.2 measured at a very robust -2.0 degrees.

 

14SEP2022     19.9-0.8     24.1-0.8     25.7-0.9     27.7-0.9
21SEP2022     19.7-1.0     24.1-0.8     25.8-0.9     27.7-1.0
28SEP2022     19.0-1.7     23.9-1.0     25.8-0.8     27.6-1.1
05OCT2022     19.2-1.6     24.0-0.9     25.9-0.8     27.5-1.2
12OCT2022     18.9-2.0     24.0-1.0     25.9-0.8     27.5-1.1

 

Although this is a relatively subtle change that will not alter the overall designation of this la nina as a basin-wide, hybrid event, it could potentially have some significant ramifications on the seasonal forecast. This is due to the fact that variance amongst the this particular data set is highest of the three respective subgroups, so precise orientation can have a large impact on the ultimate placement of forcing around the hemisphere depending on the state of other major drivers. However, this is a point that transcends the scope of this particular entry and will be discussed more explicitly in the winter outlook. What is of greater relevance within the context of this writing is that the cause of this slight reconfiguration of the anomalies is also the impetus for the impending peak of la nina over the course of the next 5-6 weeks. 

Note the behavior of the H85 zonal wind anomalies across the ENSO regions in the Hovmoller diagram pictured below. 

 

 

A Hovmoller diagram is a blend of a map and a graph used for plotting meteorological data necessary to track waves. In this case, the wave of focus being the push of easterly trade winds denoted by the color blue. These easterly winds are necessary for the upwelling of the subsurface anomalies to the surface. This is illustrated well by the fact that the two concerted intervals of significant cooling across ENSO region 1.2, the first occurring the week of September 21-28 (-1.0 to -1.7) and the second (-1.6 to -2.0) the week of October 5-12, coincided with and immediately followed the ephemeral advancement of the the upwelling easterly trade winds into this zone. This is denoted by the two circled areas in the annotation above.  It is this relationship between the H85mb zonal winds and the subsurface water within the ENSO regions that caused the significant cooling over the eastern regions, and it is this same relationship that is beginning to trigger the peak of la nina in what represents is the very essence of the Walker Cycle, which ensures that ENSO continues to cycle in a state of perpetual self-destruction.

 

Note that back on August 16th, before the easterly trades advanced into the eastern region, the cooler subsurface anomalies had not yet surfaced:

 

 

But by mid October, after the two intervals of trade wind expansion into region 1.2, the warmer surface anomalies had been eradicated as the cooler subsurface has upwelled. Meanwhile, across the western ENSO zones, the subsurface warmth is intensifying and slowly advancing eastward, meaning that the proximal zone for intensification of la nina is disappearing because subsequent upwelling in these zones will trigger the incipient stages of modoki el nino.

 

 

 

The reason being that it is clear that these easterly trade winds are making a concerted retreat back to the west, away from the cool subsurface anomalies to the east, and are also forecast to weaken considerably, which could limit any additional cooling the central region of 3.4. If they do not weaken as much as forecast, although region 3.4 may have one more signifiant round of cooling, this could still be negated by the advance of warmer subsurface waters into the western flank of region 3.4 from region 4.

 

 

 

In summary, while it is likely that region 3.4 will have one more burst of cooling over the next one to two weeks following the last gasp of retreating trade winds, the combination of the burgeoning subsurface warmth edging east into region 3.4 and retreating trades moving west through region 3.4 means that the la nina ONI for the SON tri-mothly period is likely to peak within the -1.0 to -1.2 range. This is consistent with the forecast throughout the latter portion of summer and throughout the autumn. 

This is also consistent with the converging of two camps amongst latest guidance.

 

Guidance Converging on Forecast for SON ONI Peak

The October update of the International Research Institute (IRI) suite of guidance is in good agreement with the Eastern Mass Weather forecast SON peak ONI range of anywhere between -1.0 to -1.2C. This is slightly biased towards the more aggressive statistical members (-1.2), as opposed to the more conservative dynamical guidance (-0.89) due to the fact that the current JAS ONI value is already at -0.9 and some slight additional cooling is expected in the wake of the final gasp of trade winds over region 3.4.

 

 

Additionally, it was mentioned that the la nina has assumed a decidedly more eastward lean as a result of the dual westward expansion of the trades into region 1.2, which is evinced by the current October El Nino Modoki Index of -.92. 

 

 

However, these extreme eastern flank anomalies have peaked and will begin to moderate as a result of the aforementioned retreat of the easterly trades back to the west, which will also entail one last round of cooling over region 3.4. Thus the distribution of the anomalies should begin to centralize more throughout the duration of the autumn and into the winter season, with a mid winter EMI value of approximately -.392 expected during what will be basin-wide la nina with a slight eastward bias.  It will be discussed at greater length what this may mean with respect to the ensuing boreal winter season of 2022-2023, but it can definitively be stated that this high confidence ENSO forecast offers further corroboration of a concurrent weather analog composite that seems to be aligning well with observed weather this autumn.

 

Verifying Analog Composite & Looking ahead

Indeed, a strong model consensus that is in agreement with the current ENSO forecast, coupled with the fact that the sensible weather cool ENSO analogs seems to be in sync with actual observed weather and forecasts lends itself to above average confidence with respect to the winter forecast at this time. The actual analog years and a full outlook will be issued in early November, but here is a sneak preview at the results thus far this fall, and comparison to model forecasts moving forward.

All temperature anomalies will be measured versus the 1951-2010 data set in order to ensure an adequate breadth of time in a quickly changing climate, unless otherwise noted.

 

Actual September 2022:

 

 

Versus September temperature anomaly analog composite:

 

 

Actual October 1-19 2022 (only available versus 1991-2020 climo period)

 

 

 

Versus October temperature analog composite:
 

 

Obviously this does not look like a match at this point, however, the forecast for the remainder of October offers hope for an improved verification:

 

 

 

 

Finally, looking ahead, here is the forecast temperature anomaly analog composite for the the month of November, which is again measured against the 1991-2020 climo period only for the purposes of comparison with the forecast period. It will be measured agains the 1951-2010 climo period for the purpose of verification.

 

 

Versus a recent forecast from the CFS climate model, which has a high degree of accuracy at one month lead time.

 

 

The winter outlook and attendant specific analog years will continue to be honed until its release in early November-

[CoastalWx]

15 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

Polar disruptions typically do not have an immediate response and have nothing to with whether or not we get snowstorms. Another example of mets with trigger fingers of trying to explain something that is not that simple.

[40/70 Benchmark]

18 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

More of a neon light follow request than substance of ultimate relevance.

[stadiumwave]

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

48 minutes ago, stadiumwave said:

 

La nina is going to peak over the next couple of weeks. 

[CoastalWx]

Weeklies try to have some ridging (-EPOish) later Novie so likely seeing this mtn torque stuff starting.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Weeklies try to have some ridging (-EPOish) later Novie so likely seeing this mtn torque stuff starting.

I think we should be careful..

[CoastalWx]

22 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think we should be careful..

Always careful 

[512high]

3 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Weeklies try to have some ridging (-EPOish) later Novie so likely seeing this mtn torque stuff starting.

Scott, or others...if I am reading correctly we go into November with seasonable temps or slightly above, before we go the other way, what I'm try to ask, I have a small project on the NH seacoast somewhere between November 8-15th time frame, really can't have daytime highs in the 40s etc. during that time frame for what I'm doing, etc.

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 minutes ago, 512high said:

Scott, or others...if I am reading correctly we go into November with seasonable temps or slightly above, before we go the other way, what I'm try to ask, I have a small project on the NH seacoast somewhere between November 8-15th time frame, really can't have daytime highs in the 40s etc. during that time frame for what I'm doing, etc.

I think it gets colder after mid Novie.

[512high]

26 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think it gets colder after mid Novie.

Thanks for the reply Ray…

[snowman19]

11 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

More of a neon light follow request than substance of ultimate relevance.

His profile says he’s a “winter weather expert”

[George001]

Is Isotherm still doing winter forecasts?

[CoastalWx]

16 hours ago, 512high said:

Scott, or others...if I am reading correctly we go into November with seasonable temps or slightly above, before we go the other way, what I'm try to ask, I have a small project on the NH seacoast somewhere between November 8-15th time frame, really can't have daytime highs in the 40s etc. during that time frame for what I'm doing, etc.

I mean it’s certainly possible that far out, but I’m leaning towards AN temps at that time overall. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 hours ago, George001 said:

Is Isotherm still doing winter forecasts?

No.

[stadiumwave]

5 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

No.

 

What happened to him? He ok?