Winter 2022-2023 Conjecture

[Typhoon Tip]

20 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

I believe it's more that the hemispheric pattern (Nina then borderline weak Nino in 2015) allowed for the MJO to be situated in such a way that it helped drive 500mb ridging over the NE PAC. 

Zactly. Yup

[ORH_wxman]

What is with the obsession of the GOA SSTs?

I mean yeah, I guess you want them warmer all things equal, but they are about 20th on a list of the top 25 most important variables.

We literally spent almost the entire stretch of prolific years between 2007-2013 with frigid ice water in the GOA.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

What is with the obsession of the GOA SSTs?

I mean yeah, I guess you want them warmer all things equal, but they are about 20th on a list of the top 25 most important variables.

We literally spent almost the entire stretch of prolific years between 2007-2013 with frigid ice water in the GOA.

Yea, I have never understood the obsession with non-ENSO ssts....its relatively trivial.

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, I have never understood the obsession with non-ENSO ssts....its relatively trivial.

I think maybe they are just a proxy for subconsciously being afraid of La Nina? I can understand that from our Mid-Atlantic brethren as Nina gets more hostile the further south you go, but it's really nothing to be scared of in New England.

[SJonesWX]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

I think maybe they are just a proxy for subconsciously being afraid of La Nina? I can understand that from our Mid-Atlantic brethren as Nina gets more hostile the further south you go, but it's really nothing to be scared of in New England.

to be fair, the posters in this thread worried about it are from outside of NE. it's really too bad that there isn't a winter conjecture thread in the NY/NJ forum where they could post their thoughts. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

@ORH_wxman, do you have a link for the latest version of this Hovmoller?

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I think maybe they are just a proxy for subconsciously being afraid of La Nina? I can understand that from our Mid-Atlantic brethren as Nina gets more hostile the further south you go, but it's really nothing to be scared of in New England.

All things being equal, I would still prefer el nino and and definitely pretty sick of cool ENSO, at this point.

[ORH_wxman]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

@ORH_wxman, do you have a link for the latest version of this Hovmoller?

 

Yeah here you go

 

 

 

 

Here's the link to Mike Ventrice's site where you can get it

http://mikeventrice.weebly.com/hovmollers.html

 

[ORH_wxman]

6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

All things being equal, I would still prefer el nino and and definitely pretty sick of cool ENSO, at this point.

The irony being our last El Nino (2018-19) acted like a La Nina.

Then the warm neutral 2019-2020 was about as scintillating as 1988-89 after the early December storm.

[SnoSki14]

9 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

All things being equal, I would still prefer el nino and and definitely pretty sick of cool ENSO, at this point.

At the very least it might bring some change to this dull pattern. 

And I don't think the differences are as drastic as one might think with NJ vs SNE especially northern NJ.

NW NJ can easily be snowier & colder than eastern portions of SNE. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The irony being our last El Nino (2018-19) acted like a La Nina.

Then the warm neutral 2019-2020 was about as scintillating as 1988-89 after the early December storm.

Yea, these are the nuances that can cause a shitty several years, which I have seen, though I know that not everyone has, regionally.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

At the very least it might bring some change to this dull pattern. 

And I don't think the differences are as drastic as one might think with NJ vs SNE especially northern NJ.

NW NJ can easily be snowier & colder than eastern portions of SNE. 

The point is many la nina seasons have a latitudinal gradient, so that is not the case. 

[ORH_wxman]

4 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

At the very least it might bring some change to this dull pattern. 

And I don't think the differences are as drastic as one might think with NJ vs SNE especially northern NJ.

NW NJ can easily be snowier & colder than eastern portions of SNE. 

You want a longitudinal gradient for NNJ to be snowier than SNE....or something really weird with obscene blocking like 2009-2010. Those typically won't happen in a La Nina....though it's not impossible. Happened in 2000-2001....parts of interior NNJ had more snow than Boston that winter....but '00-'01 did act a lot more like an El Nino than a La Nina....esp in the North Pacific pattern.

But over the interior, there was a massive latitude gradient.....ORH had over 100 inches while interior CT maybe had 50-60"....and then interior S NH had some spots with well over 130 inches.

[Typhoon Tip]

39 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I think maybe they are just a proxy for subconsciously being afraid of La Nina? I can understand that from our Mid-Atlantic brethren as Nina gets more hostile the further south you go, but it's really nothing to be scared of in New England.

Lol … not to be a douche but I don’t believe many really think about it that deeply. Heh. 

Someone once intelligently posited or even merely sounded cogent when stating cold water sucks there … —> forever triggered a canvas of fear. 

I guess it depends on the audience.  I mean there are enough years sampled to force the notion of non-partiality (not a doom signal at all…) that frankly I and I suspect a growing number of prognosticators merely add it to the stew… 

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Lol … not to be a douche but I don’t believe many really think about it that deeply. Heh. 

Someone once intelligently posited or even merely sounded cogent when stating cold water sucks there … —> forever triggered a canvas of fear. 

I guess it depends on the audience.  I mean there are enough years samples to force the notion of partiality (not a doom signals at all…) that frankly I and I suspect a growing number of prognosticators merely add it to the stew… 

The only SSTs I even mention are ENSO....even the fabled N ATL tripole is overrated IMO....I think its a more worthwhile endeavor to study the subsruface.

[Typhoon Tip]

28 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The irony being our last El Nino (2018-19) acted like a La Nina.

Then the warm neutral 2019-2020 was about as scintillating as 1988-89 after the early December storm.

We laugh but … heh that decoupling thing has been an increasing observation occurrence spanning a decade.  I realize you’re not making a statement either way … but it’s not just endemic to the last NIÑA for the general read/straw man.  

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

We laugh but … heh that decoupling thing has been an increasing observation occurrence spanning a decade.  I realize you’re not making a statement either way … but it’s not just endemic to the last NIÑA for the general read/straw man.  

While there is undoubtedly CC at play, the impact of weaker ENSO events has always been more diverse and diffuse.

[Typhoon Tip]

34 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The only SSTs I even mention are ENSO....even the fabled N ATL tripole is overrated IMO....I think its a more worthwhile endeavor to study the subsruface.

Very much agreed. The veneer of the ocean surface/air is only a (warning: big words incoming…) quasi-couple EOS (equation of stasis)

That means that what the atmosphere is doing at the sea surface (in regards to wind distribution) tends to reflect in the SST distribution - but that can be transient at intra seasonal scales and does necessarily reflect PDO/AMO —

let’s get complicated though… If some grad student with a brilliant insight comes along and proves that the subsurface means less to the actual pattern … like undeniably and quite conclusively… then we can reevaluate

The other thing - more of a separate matter  The warm pool up there in the north and north east pacific wobbling around since roughly 7 to 10 or so years ago (Will’s gonna love this) Is being attributed to climate change. Not personally commenting to its veracity one way or the other… But the papers out there I actually gave a link either I don’t know one of these threads.  But the point is if that’s true then the PDO just suddenly means even less to the pattern - it actually even smacks is passing through a climate threshold the ramifications of which would remain to be seen   digress 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Very much agreed. The veneer of the ocean surface/air is only a (warning: big words incoming…) quasi-couple EOS (equation of stasis)

That means that what the atmosphere is doing at the sea surface (in regards to wind distribution) tends to reflect in the SST distribution - but that can be transient at intra seasonal scales and does necessarily reflect PDO/AMO —

let’s get complicated though… If some grad student with a brilliant insight comes along and proves that the subsurface means less to the actual pattern … like undeniably and quite conclusively… then we can reevaluate

The other thing - more of a separate matter  The warm pool up there in the north and north east pacific wobbling around since roughly 7 to 10 or so years ago parentheses (Will’s gonna love this) Is being attributed to climate change. Not personally commenting to its veracity one way or the other… But the papers out there I actually gave a link either I don’t know one of these threads.  But the point is if that’s true then the PDO just suddenly means even less to the pattern - it actually even smacks is passing through a climate threshold the ramifications of which would remain to be seen   digress 

 

Well, I think the subsurface does dictate the pattern indirectly speaking due to the fact that it modulates the sea surface given a favorable wind direction to facilitate upwelling....its all one giant feedback, clearly.

[Typhoon Tip]

13 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

While there is undoubtedly CC at play, the impact of weaker ENSO events has always been more diverse and diffuse.

I’m not sure what it is… didn’t mention climate change in that. Granted it’s the most available implication but I don’t know

You know … that Super Nino that took place … I wanna say 7 clicks back, turned out to be not much more than a Super Neato. It did not impose nearly as many impacts along traditional climate routes as past significant warm events have.  so I don’t know that’s all maybe it’s an isolated thing

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

I’m not sure what it is… mention climate change in that. Granted it’s the most available implication but I don’t know

You know … that Super Nino that tok place … I wanna say 7 clicks back, turned out to be not much more than a a Super Neato. It did not impose nearly as many impacts along traditional climate routes as past significant warm events have.  so I don’t know that’s all maybe it’s an isolated thing

There is no question CC is impacting everything, but the issue is that its extraordinarily difficult to assign proper attribution ratios, aside from maybe surface temp.

[snowman19]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

What is with the obsession of the GOA SSTs?

I mean yeah, I guess you want them warmer all things equal, but they are about 20th on a list of the top 25 most important variables.

We literally spent almost the entire stretch of prolific years between 2007-2013 with frigid ice water in the GOA.

I guess people forget the 1960’s and 1970’s when the PDO was severely negative 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

I guess people forget the 1960’s and 1970’s when the PDO was severely negative 

Maybe they forget it was also one of the coldest/snowiest decades in history for the east?

[brooklynwx99]

2010-11 also had a severely negative PDO and it's actually a pretty solid analog, so, yes, I don't understand the gnashing of teeth about the topic right now

no one variable is the end-all-be-all with seasonal forecasting

[CoastalWx]

43 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

2010-11 also had a severely negative PDO and it's actually a pretty solid analog, so, yes, I don't understand the gnashing of teeth about the topic right now

no one variable is the end-all-be-all with seasonal forecasting

It's definitely been the "sexy" topic to discuss since it's received more attn than it should and the weather community was quick to blame GOAK SSTs on certain phenomenon. Even as scientists, we seem to be too trigger happy on putting an easy blame on something. 

[tamarack]

4 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

At the very least it might bring some change to this dull pattern. 

And I don't think the differences are as drastic as one might think with NJ vs SNE especially northern NJ.

NW NJ can easily be snowier & colder than eastern portions of SNE. 

Stations in NW NJ from which I've downloaded data average 40-45", topping out at +/-100" in 1960-61.  Unfortunately, nearly all of those sites blinked out a few years after the millennium.

[dryslot]

9 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

You're in NJ and have a better chance of a lousy winter in a Nina. So yeah, I'd go warm there too. 

Apples and oranges if he's try to compare the areas in a Nina, You could very easily end up on the wrong side of a gradient pattern, I would take my chances with that the further north you are.

[George001]

4 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

2010-11 also had a severely negative PDO and it's actually a pretty solid analog, so, yes, I don't understand the gnashing of teeth about the topic right now

no one variable is the end-all-be-all with seasonal forecasting

Yeah I don’t understand the anti La Niña sentiment among snow weenies especially NYC north. The negative PDO just means the Nina is coupled or acting like a Nina right? If so then yeah the PDO will probably negative again this year because we have a La Niña and the MEI is -1.8. That will probably drop some but if the models have the right idea the Nina should be well coupled and act like a Nina, which really isn’t anything to be afraid for weenies NYC north. Didnt pretty much everywhere NYC north get buried 2010-2011? My area got around double our average snowfall that year.

[snowman19]

7 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Maybe they forget it was also one of the coldest/snowiest decades in history for the east?

Yea, that severe decades long -PDO back then really ruined east coast winters right? You know some of the coldest and snowiest winters on record lol These guys really need to stop listening to Joe Bastardi. MJO812 literally screenshotted JB’s SST graphic on his recent tweet to prove his east coast cold and snow obsession 

[WxWatcher007]

8 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Maybe they forget it was also one of the coldest/snowiest decades in history for the east?

Where do I sign?