Winter 2022-2023 Conjecture

[WinterWolf]

Last January sucked here too….8-10” when others east had a monster. 
 

And January ’15 wasn’t a whole lot better…12-14” here, and east of the river got 30+”

Everybody gets suckered at some point…We’ve also had some great ones the last 15-16 yrs too(Feb of 06 was fabulous, January 2011 absolutely positively buried with multiple big bears, Feb of 13 33+ inches), so it goes both ways. 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

5 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Last January sucked here too….8-10” when others east had a monster. 
 

And January ’15 wasn’t a whole lot better…12-14” here, and east of the river got 30+”

Everybody gets suckered at some point…We’ve also had some great ones the last 15-16 yrs too(Feb of 06 was fabulous, January 2011 absolutely positively buried with multiple big bears, Feb of 13 33+ inches), so it goes both ways. 

To be fair, it was really only a monster in a small corridor from like TAN to Weymouth.

An all timer in a small area, nice storm elsewhere 

[WinterWolf]

Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

To be fair, it was really only a monster in a small corridor from like TAN to Weymouth.

An all timer in a small area, nice storm elsewhere 

Very true.
 

Glad for the ones that got in on it.  My area did not…maybe next time around? 

[ORH_wxman]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

I've had a target on my back since '13-'14. But many forget some pretty lousy storms that have not worked out here. 

Yeah top of the list was 2/1/21....I think I had 17 inches in that one here while you had like 2-3 inches of slush mixed with rain. Even Norwood not very far west of you had 10 inches of mashed potatoes.

[CoastalWx]

11 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah top of the list was 2/1/21....I think I had 17 inches in that one here while you had like 2-3 inches of slush mixed with rain. Even Norwood not very far west of you had 10 inches of mashed potatoes.

Even Brett did better than me in that    I don't expect any sympathy...but I'm just keeping it honest.  

[40/70 Benchmark]

42 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

To be fair, it was really only a monster in a small corridor from like TAN to Weymouth.

An all timer in a small area, nice storm elsewhere 

It was pretty historic up through Boston ....2' events in Boston proper do not grow on trees.

[40/70 Benchmark]

22 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah top of the list was 2/1/21....I think I had 17 inches in that one here while you had like 2-3 inches of slush mixed with rain. Even Norwood not very far west of you had 10 inches of mashed potatoes.

You would like to think that a third consecutive crack at la nina will finally pay dividends here on the NH border, but at this point, who knows...

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

55 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Last January sucked here too….8-10” when others east had a monster. 
 

And January ’15 wasn’t a whole lot better…12-14” here, and east of the river got 30+”

Everybody gets suckered at some point…We’ve also had some great ones the last 15-16 yrs too(Feb of 06 was fabulous, January 2011 absolutely positively buried with multiple big bears, Feb of 13 33+ inches), so it goes both ways. 

Eh, I don’t think it goes both ways. EOR are way ahead with big events since I can remember. There’s more to it then just variance. 

[CoastalWx]

16 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It was pretty historic up through Boston ....2' events in Boston proper do not grow on trees.

Eastern Essex county too. 

[stadiumwave]

16 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

That pool means nothing. It’s a product of the 500mb pattern. That atmosphere is not changing hemispheric patterns because water temps are 53 instead of 49. 
 

The NPAC SSTs are as overhyped as the SAI.

 

I dunno. The warm blob, -PDO of 2013-14 is thought to have played a role in repeated ridging. 

However, like I previously posted...fall SST's in the N Pac fluctuate more drastically than any other time of year. This is usually due to Rosby wave trains. So, fall SST's are not usually a good indication of winter SST's.

Last of all, I generally agree that it's way to heavily weighed on how much of an impact the waters might have when other factors are certainly the greatest forcing mechanisms on the atmosphere.

 

[Snowcrazed71]

I have to say, and I think most of you would agree. What brings me back every year is the love I have for the winter season. Even with all the forecast that come out starting late summer into late fall on what might transpire in the winter ( and as we know they don't always go according to plan ).

What's exciting is no one knows when that big one is going to hit or where. But, it will happen, whether it's Eastern New England,  Western New England, the Mid-Atlantic or region-wide. Weather in itself is just super exciting. Doesn't matter how old I get, I still love it like I did when I was a kid.

I appreciate what everybody has to bring to the table here on this site. That's why I keep coming back. ( Even with the bickering that might happen lol). You guys/gals are a good bunch.

[WinterWolf]

20 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

I have to say, and I think most of you would agree. What brings me back every year is the love I have for the winter season. Even with all the forecast that come out starting late summer into late fall on what might transpire in the winter ( and as we know they don't always go according to plan ).

What's exciting is no one knows when that big one is going to hit or where. But, it will happen, whether it's Eastern New England,  Western New England, the Mid-Atlantic or region-wide. Weather in itself is just super exciting. Doesn't matter how old I get, I still love it like I did when I was a kid.

I appreciate what everybody has to bring to the table here on this site. That's why I keep coming back. ( Even with the bickering that might happen lol). You guys/gals are a good bunch.

Good post.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah top of the list was 2/1/21....I think I had 17 inches in that one here while you had like 2-3 inches of slush mixed with rain. Even Norwood not very far west of you had 10 inches of mashed potatoes.

 

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Even Brett did better than me in that    I don't expect any sympathy...but I'm just keeping it honest.  

… that was a good one. Just looked at Kevin’s site and I had 6” of absolute mashed potatoes.

I was juuuuuussssttt far enough away from the water, as is often the case here.

Id love to see a breakdown from about my area up through like Sharon. I get snow averages rise pretty steadily through like easton, Foxboro, Mansfield, up to Sharon relative to the real distance.

[Typhoon Tip]

45 minutes ago, stadiumwave said:

 

I dunno. The warm blob, -PDO of 2013-14 is thought to have played a role in repeated ridging. 

However, like I previously posted...fall SST's in the N Pac fluctuate more drastically than any other time of year. This is usually due to Rosby wave trains. So, fall SST's are not usually a good indication of winter SST's.

Last of all, I generally agree that it's way to heavily weighed on how much of an impact the waters might have when other factors are certainly the greatest forcing mechanisms on the atmosphere.

 

It harkens back to the more primitive climate model/projections from the early 1990s… They more than less predicted that global warming would cause propensity for ridging over the northeast Pacific. It was kind of an offset idea for cooling over North America as a local hemisphere scale feedback/circumstance for being downstream of a warming ocean.  

I think a lot of those earlier more primitive model solutions were never revisited, perhaps because the technology advanced and outpaced the chance to do so. I mean there’s like a new climate model projection every month with some paperwork related to it employing some recently discovered feedback mechanisms and all these are based on observations since those earlier efforts so they are really kind of outmoded. Nonetheless, 2015 was a strange year, and there have been other examples where there’s been an increase in the tendency for negative EPO bursts; observationally it harkens back to those earlier works   

[CoastalWx]

52 minutes ago, stadiumwave said:

 

I dunno. The warm blob, -PDO of 2013-14 is thought to have played a role in repeated ridging. 

However, like I previously posted...fall SST's in the N Pac fluctuate more drastically than any other time of year. This is usually due to Rosby wave trains. So, fall SST's are not usually a good indication of winter SST's.

Last of all, I generally agree that it's way to heavily weighed on how much of an impact the waters might have when other factors are certainly the greatest forcing mechanisms on the atmosphere.

 

I saw something about the MJO from 2013 into 2015 being in an area to promote consistent NE PAC ridging and thus warmer SSTs. Pretty sure Ventrice or one of those guys had something out there about it. I believe that.

[Typhoon Tip]

Hm. 
The thing with the MJO … it’s a constructive feedback or destructive feedback mechanism - it doesn’t actually drive patterns. 

I’m not exactly sure what Ventrice was talking about/his context there   I wasn’t in the room. But just adding. 

…if the baseline circulation mode forces ridging there … then a given MJO materializes over the left side of the RMM monitoring, it certainly would appear to be a huge motivator.

I strongly suspect, in the early days of connection with the MJO index, people leaped on using it but didn’t fully understand that it was more of a feedback/harmonic  as opposed to an actual pattern drive. In the weekly discussion/publication … I have noticed an adaptation to that conceptualization as more than years ago, they now describe constructive/ destructive interference against the ENSO this or the circulation mode that and on and so on

[CoastalWx]

7 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Hm. 
The thing with the MJO … it’s a constructive feedback or destructive feedback mechanism - it doesn’t actually drive patterns. 

I’m not exactly sure what Ventrice was talking about/his context there   I wasn’t in the room. But just adding. 

…if the baseline circulation mode forces ridging there … then a given MJO materializes over the left side of the RMM monitoring, it certainly would appear to be a huge motivator.

I strongly suspect, in the early days of connection with the MJO index, people leaped on using it but didn’t fully understand that it was more of a feedback/harmonic  as opposed to an actual pattern drive. In the weekly discussion/publication … I have noticed an adaptation to that conceptualization as more than years ago, they now describe constructive/ destructive interference against the ENSO this or the circulation mode that and on and so on

I believe it's more that the hemispheric pattern (Nina then borderline weak Nino in 2015) allowed for the MJO to be situated in such a way that it helped drive 500mb ridging over the NE PAC. 

[MJO812]

Beautiful 

[Terpeast]

50 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Beautiful 

Looking more and more positive. When was the last 3rd year nina with a +pdo?

[SnoSki14]

2 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Beautiful 

Those positive anomalies are gonna get wiped out over next 2 weeks. 

The only positive is the possibility of an east based Nina. 

[snowman19]

8 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Beautiful 

Bye Felicia 

 

 

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

Bye Felicia 

 

 

We all know you want a warm winter

[SnoSki14]

25 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

We all know you want a warm winter

And he's been more right than wrong. The last decade+ has been very warm and these Ninas produce more of the same each season. 

[MJO812]

Just now, SnoSki14 said:

And he's been more right than wrong. The last decade+ has been very warm and these Ninas produce more of the same each season. 

He posts everything from Twitter but yes , temps have been warmer.

[SnoSki14]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

He posts everything from Twitter but yes , temps have been warmer.

West looks like garbage already. Low heights from Alaska to the entire west coast

If that locks in expect pacific puke yet again so not feeling very optimistic 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

And he's been more right than wrong. The last decade+ has been very warm and these Ninas produce more of the same each season. 

DM 2020-2021 was just about normal...a bit above NNE. DM 2017-2018 was normal to slightly below.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

West looks like garbage already. Low heights from Alaska to the entire west coast

If that locks in expect pacific puke yet again so not feeling very optimistic 

snowman's protégé  

[SnoSki14]

32 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

snowman's protégé  

Raindancewx feels the same and he's a great forecaster 

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Raindancewx feels the same and he's a great forecaster 

He is, but if you read his work, it specifies that the +5ish warmth will be localized. His actual analog composite isn't that warm....the localized +5 crap was the hand drawn map.

[CoastalWx]

32 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Raindancewx feels the same and he's a great forecaster 

You're in NJ and have a better chance of a lousy winter in a Nina. So yeah, I'd go warm there too.