Winter 2022-2023 Conjecture

[512high]

6 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Maybe sensible weather wise....but off the top of my head, I would toss out 1957-1958, 1976-1977 (obviously modified), 1986-1987, 2002-2003, 2014-2015 (obviously not 100" in 30 days).

So Ray , as of June 8, 2022, what time of year do we start to get a "hint" we maybe heading for a El Niño winter or "other"? August time frame ? October? I find it interesting even long range(10-15 days out) I don't see 90 deg. for ASH etc, which I have no issues with!

[MJO812]

20 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

We 04-05.

[40/70 Benchmark]

14 hours ago, 512high said:

So Ray , as of June 8, 2022, what time of year do we start to get a "hint" we maybe heading for a El Niño winter or "other"? August time frame ? October? I find it interesting even long range(10-15 days out) I don't see 90 deg. for ASH etc, which I have no issues with!

My confidence is usually pretty high by September.....what I am confident of right now is that I do not see an intense, or even moderate ENSO event next season....just a matter of which side of neutral it will lay. The Pacific has been my strength with respect to seasonal forecasting....its the Atlantic and polar domain that I have really struggled with.

I have nailed (verification is defined as within .3 either direction) my ENSO forecasts 7/8 seasons.....however, you would have been better served assuming the opposite of whatever I forecast with respect to the NAO, as I am 0/6. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Watch 1976 as a potential analog this fall...I see some parallels with respect to ENSO recovery.

[CoastalWx]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Watch 1976 as a potential analog this fall...I see some parallels with respect to ENSO recovery.

Only going by gut, but this will be an interior winter. Not saying I get 30" and you get 100"...but I could see a 00-01 vibe. It's just due to happen at any point. 

[tamarack]

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Watch 1976 as a potential analog this fall...I see some parallels with respect to ENSO recovery.

Would not complain about a repeat - 1976-77 gave the local co-op 116% average snow and 2nd coldest met winter since 1917-18 (their coldest), so great retention.

[StormchaserChuck!]

Weak El Nino probably coming.. We have been strongest -PDO in 50+ years though.. I'd expect Alaska to keep warming(minus -EPO)-(wonder what that looks like?)

[StormchaserChuck!]

On 6/8/2022 at 2:06 PM, CoastalWx said:

We 04-05.

Kind of an evolutionary time. We have done 6 straight -PNA Winter's, and 5 February's with an average of +4SD -PNA. Let's see what happens. 

[StormchaserChuck!]

Also rember Dec 2010 was major -PNA leap (300 vs 230dm #2), and Dec 2021 leaped from that (like 360dm vs 300dm) . This is what 11-12 looked like(notice duality)

 

[StormchaserChuck!]

Btw, what a stretch this was of PV-northern land, we almost favored -AO though

[40/70 Benchmark]

20 hours ago, StormchaserChuck! said:

Weak El Nino probably coming.. We have been strongest -PDO in 50+ years though.. I'd expect Alaska to keep warming(minus -EPO)-(wonder what that looks like?)

I am beginning to grow confident that it will be warm-neutral.....I think a full-fledged el nino is exceedingly unlikely looking at ONI climo data.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2018-2019 and, as already mentioned, 1976-1977 will be two potential analogs to monitor in the early going

[40/70 Benchmark]

2012-2013 is another potential analog to keep in mind...

[CoastalWx]

A lot of guidance still fairly cool. Like weak Nina.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

A lot of guidance still fairly cool. Like weak Nina.

Yea, I feel like the guidance will warm later towards the fall. I do not see an el nino by CPC guidelines, but warm neutral is in play.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I'm fairly confident at this early juncture that we either going to have ENSO neutral or weak la nina conditions for winter 2022-2023.

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2022/06/la-nina-advisory-remains-in-place.html

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

I’m kinda over ninas at this point though. Would like a solid southern jet to enhance things for a change. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

10 hours ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I’m kinda over ninas at this point though. Would like a solid southern jet to enhance things for a change. 

I don't think this will be like last year's la nina in the sense that it will not be as prominent a player across the hemisphere...IOW, we may see more variation in the pattern. It isn't going to be as pervasive a driver.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

3 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I don't think this will be like last year's la nina in the sense that it will not be as prominent a player across the hemisphere...IOW, we may see more variation in the pattern. It isn't going to be as pervasive a driver.

Cool. The sloppy phases and saggy double boob events was irritating. I don’t know if it was Tippy’s HC or a function of enso that caused it but I’d like to fire some juice up from the equator, and play with fire.

[brooklynwx99]

On 7/6/2022 at 1:04 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Cool. The sloppy phases and saggy double boob events was irritating. I don’t know if it was Tippy’s HC or a function of enso that caused it but I’d like to fire some juice up from the equator, and play with fire.

just wait until we exit the triple -ENSO... I agree with @40/70 Benchmark that either the 2023-24 or 2024-25 winter will be a big one as +ENSO returns

a few winters that were either one or two years after three consecutive -ENSO years (which usually saw at least one moderate/strong -ENSO early on) are:

2014/15, 2002/03, 1977/78, and 1957/58!

1986/87 is also in there. this was a big MA winter, and I would take that pattern again

57/58 wasn't prolific for Boston, but I would again take my chances with this pattern near you guys 100% of the time. it was definitely more of a NYC/MA winter verbatim

not a big sample size given the lack of triple -ENSOs, but it's a pretty good sign that we could see a big boy soon. just gotta be a bit patient 

for this winter, I'm probably leaning near or slightly below average snowfall. nothing looks particularly promising w/ -ENSO conditions lingering

[brooklynwx99]

here are the composites of these five winters and their Februaries:

I think these pretty much speak for themselves

[CoastalWx]

7 hours ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Cool. The sloppy phases and saggy double boob events was irritating. I don’t know if it was Tippy’s HC or a function of enso that caused it but I’d like to fire some juice up from the equator, and play with fire.

Booby lows probably not due to Nina. Hell sometimes getting a coastal In Nina is tough, so chalk it up to nuances in the flow. 

[CoastalWx]

Actually that late Jan storm sort of reminded me of the Feb 06 storm in that we didn’t quite have the CCB. It was a lot of mid level magic, but east of that slotted pretty good. The classic ones like Feb 2013 and Jan 2015 had great CCB action east of the mid level goodies. That’s why you had widespread 24-36+”. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

19 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

just wait until we exit the triple -ENSO... I agree with @40/70 Benchmark that either the 2023-24 or 2024-25 winter will be a big one as +ENSO returns

a few winters that were either one or two years after three consecutive -ENSO years (which usually saw at least one moderate/strong -ENSO early on) are:

2014/15, 2002/03, 1977/78, and 1957/58!

1986/87 is also in there. this was a big MA winter, and I would take that pattern again

57/58 wasn't prolific for Boston, but I would again take my chances with this pattern near you guys 100% of the time. it was definitely more of a NYC/MA winter verbatim

not a big sample size given the lack of triple -ENSOs, but it's a pretty good sign that we could see a big boy soon. just gotta be a bit patient 

for this winter, I'm probably leaning near or slightly below average snowfall. nothing looks particularly promising w/ -ENSO conditions lingering

2009-2010, too.

Its 2023-2024....my guess a moderate modoki el nino with above average snow from VA through ME.

[40/70 Benchmark]

12 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Booby lows probably not due to Nina. Hell sometimes getting a coastal In Nina is tough, so chalk it up to nuances in the flow. 

The lack of activity in December was due to the compressed flow the big negative anomaly  out west, and the transient neg NAO node later in the month.

I think the imperfect phases later in the season were cyclogenesis defects that are prominent in the absence of high latitude blocking.

[brooklynwx99]

4 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

2009-2010, too.

Its 2023-2024....my guess a moderate modoki el nino with above average snow from VA through ME.

i was thinking of including 2009-10, but the only issue with that in my mind was that there were only two -ENSO years with an immediate flip to a moderate +ENSO... looks like we're getting a gradual transition to a cold neutral instead

since there was a strong -ENSO event in 07-08 it wouldn't be the worst analog, but it's out of my set for now. definitely not out of the question, though

the next +ENSO event we'll get should be Modoki, and given past winters, it should be a really good one for almost all on the EC. exciting stuff

[40/70 Benchmark]

48 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

i was thinking of including 2009-10, but the only issue with that in my mind was that there were only two -ENSO years with an immediate flip to a moderate +ENSO... looks like we're getting a gradual transition to a cold neutral instead

since there was a strong -ENSO event in 07-08 it wouldn't be the worst analog, but it's out of my set for now. definitely not out of the question, though

the next +ENSO event we'll get should be Modoki, and given past winters, it should be a really good one for almost all on the EC. exciting stuff

Yea, we aren't getting that kind of drastic flip....also true that it was "only" a double dip la nina, but that is certainly not prohibitive of a similar type of modoki el nino for the 2023-2024 winter season. I don't expect it to remain a weak el nino because we haven't had a significant warm ENSO event since the 2015-2016 super el nino.

[weathafella]

CFS albeit at a long lead so caveats obviously apply is decent for the winter of 2022-23.

[StormchaserChuck!]

Unfortunately we have a strong +QBO coming. With La Nina, even weak, that's a really strong 10mb vortex, normally. 

 

The last 2 times we have kind of cheated a little at the surface

even 3

[WarrenCtyWx]

On 7/6/2022 at 1:40 PM, brooklynwx99 said:

just wait until we exit the triple -ENSO... I agree with @40/70 Benchmark that either the 2023-24 or 2024-25 winter will be a big one as +ENSO returns

a few winters that were either one or two years after three consecutive -ENSO years (which usually saw at least one moderate/strong -ENSO early on) are:

2014/15, 2002/03, 1977/78, and 1957/58!

1986/87 is also in there. this was a big MA winter, and I would take that pattern again

57/58 wasn't prolific for Boston, but I would again take my chances with this pattern near you guys 100% of the time. it was definitely more of a NYC/MA winter verbatim

not a big sample size given the lack of triple -ENSOs, but it's a pretty good sign that we could see a big boy soon. just gotta be a bit patient 

for this winter, I'm probably leaning near or slightly below average snowfall. nothing looks particularly promising w/ -ENSO conditions lingering

57-58 was actually pretty epic in interior New England as well, just not on the coast.