Winter 2022-2023 Conjecture

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah basically inside of 128 got screwed with BL temps. But even out in ORH where we stayed all snow, we got dryslotted horribly after 10 inches. 
 

It was a good storm but nothing amazing…and seeing the deformation band out in E NY down to NNJ made it less appealing too. 

I had like 5-6", then some sleet and slot.

[MJO812]

15 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I think he was saying “horrible” in that he didn’t want to experience that winter again down where he is. 
 

Despite the March ‘01 debacle down there, it actually wasn’t a bad winter for NYC. They got the big 12/30/00 storm, though 2/5/01 there was excruciating (big snow just to the west) and of course the March bust. 

March 2001 was horrendous here

[MJO812]

13 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Eastern Mass got screwed in 12/30/00.

12 inches here

[CoastalWx]

15 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I had like 5-6", then some sleet and slot.

That was a horrific event and I share Jerry’s hatred for it.  

[mreaves]

29 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I think he was saying “horrible” in that he didn’t want to experience that winter again down where he is. 
 

Despite the March ‘01 debacle down there, it actually wasn’t a bad winter for NYC. They got the big 12/30/00 storm, though 2/5/01 there was excruciating (big snow just to the west) and of course the March bust. 

I still have wet dreams about March '01 up here

[ORH_wxman]

7 minutes ago, mreaves said:

I still have wet dreams about March '01 up here

What did you get there? About 30 inches in that storm? There were other storms that month too which were good over the interior. 

[mreaves]

7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

What did you get there? About 30 inches in that storm? There were other storms that month too which were good over the interior. 

We had a least 3 sizable storms in the first 10 days of March. I’m not sure what the total was but the plow guy didn’t have much room to put snow.  My boiler died and they could get the old one out of my basement until April because the basement bulkhead was inaccessible. 

[snowman19]

12 hours ago, stadiumwave said:

 

The number is basically irrelevant at times & this is absolutely one of those. As the other poster said overa it is a -PDO by official measurements. But if you're looking at this & thinking typical -PDO at the moment ...then . 

This is fall & fall SST's can change quickly. So it's not indicative necessarily for winter. However if the warm waters remain in N. PAC & off Cali coast during winter there's going to be a lot of ridging out west regardless if it's "official" -PDO or +PDO. That's the point. 

 

 

Those warmer waters near the west coast are the result of a transient pattern, they aren’t causing or forcing anything nor are they anywhere near warm enough to cause a positive feedback loop. All you need is a -PNA and they go bye bye real fast 

[George001]

On 10/16/2022 at 12:07 PM, snowman19 said:

I’m going to go out on a limb and say it’s the exact same thing that he’s predicted for winter on the east coast every single year for more than the last two decades……

And you aren’t biased? You always call for a blowtorch winter with no snow which makes no sense. Hedging warmer than average when 50/50 due to climate change? Yeah that’s reasonable, and most of the long range guys I follow are hedging that way. But calling for a 2011-2012 type winter every year or downplaying every storm threat makes you just as biased as Bastardi. Some winters like 2015-2016 the signals were overwhelmingly pointing to a blowtorch, others like 2014-2015 they overwhelmingly pointed towards an icebox. This fall is in between, with signs pointing towards neither a blowtorch or icebox, just an average New England winter that will be decent for some areas, bad for others (like the past couple winters).

[snowman19]

8 minutes ago, George001 said:

And you aren’t biased? You always call for a blowtorch winter with no snow which makes no sense. Hedging warmer than average when 50/50 due to climate change? Yeah that’s reasonable, and most of the long range guys I follow are hedging that way. But calling for a 2011-2012 type winter every year or downplaying every storm threat makes you just as biased as Bastardi. Some winters like 2015-2016 the signals were overwhelmingly pointing to a blowtorch, others like 2014-2015 they overwhelmingly pointed towards an icebox. This fall is in between, with signs pointing towards neither a blowtorch or icebox, just an average New England winter that will be decent for some areas, bad for others (like the past couple winters).

No that’s not what I do 

[George001]

Just now, snowman19 said:

No that’s not what I do 

Well I’ve never once seen you bullish on a winter or specific snow threat. That’s fine, you are entitled to your opinion but whether you realize it or not your bias is as obvious as Bastardis. You actually make good posts and seem to know your shit, but like Bastardi in my opinion your bias is so strong it negatively impacts your forecasts. I agree with you on Bastardi though, the big issue I have with Bastardi is his climate change skepticism. He is very knowledgeable about meteorology but his refusal to incorporate AGW into his forecasts is making them worse and worse as climate change accelerates. Ignoring climate change when making a winter forecast is like trying to build a championship baseball roster while ignoring pitching (This is why the Red Sox sucked ass this year).

[Great Snow 1717]

13 hours ago, cleetussnow said:

To his credit, that is a conservative outlook for him.  

true but that is the preliminary forecast...real forecast comes out soon

[EastonSN+]

Down here in SW CT would do cartwheels for a similar 2000/2001 outcome given the potential this year. Received 42 that year. 15 for the December event and 5.5 for the March Event. Was living in Norwalk at the time.

[FPizz]

2 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Down here in SW CT would do cartwheels for a similar 2000/2001 outcome given the potential this year. Received 42 that year. 15 for the December event and 5.5 for the March Event. Was living in Norwalk at the time.

Was well above average where I am in NJ with 45".  I'd take that in a heartbeat.  

[tamarack]

14 hours ago, mreaves said:

I still have wet dreams about March '01 up here

55.5" here that month; only Dec. 1976 (61.5") in Fort Kent have I had a snowier month.  Farmington co-op recorded 58.3", their 4th snowiest month in 130 winters - the other 3 were all in Feb.  They measured 14" in the early March event while we had 9.5", which was a bit odd.  The 2 storms during the month's final 10 days brought 35", with the 19" on 30-31 bringing the pack to 48".  Even in our northern Maine winters there was never 4 feet OG at the end of March, and only 1984 was close.  The April 1-2 Newfoundland blizzard had been forecast for another 12"+ here the day before it was to hit, but that one got away to the east and the snow season was done.  There were dire flood forecasts due to the tall and dense pack, but April turned dry and cool until the 4th week, so all that snow went downriver without even sniffing flood level.

[Great Snow 1717]

11 hours ago, George001 said:

And you aren’t biased? You always call for a blowtorch winter with no snow which makes no sense. Hedging warmer than average when 50/50 due to climate change? Yeah that’s reasonable, and most of the long range guys I follow are hedging that way. But calling for a 2011-2012 type winter every year or downplaying every storm threat makes you just as biased as Bastardi. Some winters like 2015-2016 the signals were overwhelmingly pointing to a blowtorch, others like 2014-2015 they overwhelmingly pointed towards an icebox. This fall is in between, with signs pointing towards neither a blowtorch or icebox, just an average New England winter that will be decent for some areas, bad for others (like the past couple winters).

coming out with a forecast that calls for a warm and dry winter doesn't generate website hits and subscriptions...

[Typhoon Tip]

56 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

coming out with a forecast that calls for a warm and dry winter doesn't generate website hits and subscriptions...

Right you get a couple of confused emoji’s while the other person gets 20 likes and has a gifted insight …

Nothing can hold a candle to the objective mental responsibility of the masses lol.  If it meant their mortgage payments or whatever they’d smarten up and give credit where it’s due real fast. So you get what you get and this is a past time/recreation.  oh well

[Terpeast]

52 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

coming out with a forecast that calls for a warm and dry winter doesn't generate website hits and subscriptions...

Real question is do subscribers stay when it turns out he was wrong… and if they do, why? 

[Great Snow 1717]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Right you get a couple of confused emoji’s while the other person gets 20 likes and has a gifted insight …

Nothing can hold a candle to the objectivity of the masses lol

Similar to "hot takes" for sports websites..

[Great Snow 1717]

Just now, Terpeast said:

Real question is do subscribers stay when it turns out he was wrong… and if they do, why? 

As the old saying goes" People hear want they want to hear"

[Terpeast]

1 minute ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

As the old saying goes" People hear want they want to hear"

Even if they were smart enough to leave after a busted winter forecast, he can still use the “churn n’ burn” strategy and still keep the lights on.

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Even if they were smart enough to leave after a busted winter forecast, he can still use the “churn n’ burn” strategy and still keep the lights on.

Like the rev says, "hype sells".

[Typhoon Tip]

4 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

Similar to "hot takes" for sports websites..

I think it’s also kind of a state of cultural aspect, too. You know it’s like the Internet +20 years? People used to be a little bit timid about their approach to using the Internet especially in these social media platforms… It took a while for the general population to become brazen and realize they could operate in the anonymity on the web and act like total assholes. That’s definitely going on/more ubiquitous right now in these “wired” societies.
 

As far as what it means for this forum …I mean not a lot of people in here are really assholes but there is still some of that kind of tendency to ignore the person who is saying what they don’t want to hear.  Heh.
 

Contributing in here to hopefully gain recognition as somebody who’s got some insights to offer, left, right and up or down you’d better make sure you are angling your delivery otherwise as was said in Caddyshack, “Oh ho well an you ain’ geddin no coke!”

[ORH_wxman]

Hype sells, but reverse psychology is also rampant on here. Just downplay and poo-poo every event so you can convince yourself that you are not "invested emotionally" in a winter or a storm threat.

[Great Snow 1717]

1 minute ago, Terpeast said:

Even if they were smart enough to leave after a busted winter forecast, he can still use the “churn n’ burn” strategy and still keep the lights on.

Any meteorologist with a website, Facebook page, or twitter handle realizes many weather enthusiasts are fans of winter weather. In order to generate "traffic" it is best to target that audience. .."East is in for a brutal winter"....that will drive the weather enthusiasts and the non weather enthusiasts to the site......as opposed to "East is in store for a very mild winter"...

Right now if you went to the SNE subforum and you posted a forecast calling for a mild and dry winter....well your forecast would be "poo pooed"...BUT if you posted something like " I think New England is in store for a severe winter".....your post would receive numerous positive comments and likes..

 

[Great Snow 1717]

11 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Even if they were smart enough to leave after a busted winter forecast, he can still use the “churn n’ burn” strategy and still keep the lights on.

Marketing 101

[Typhoon Tip]

5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Hype sells, but reverse psychology is also rampant on here. Just downplay and poo-poo every event so you can convince yourself that you are not "invested emotionally" in a winter or a storm threat.

That too.

but you know I guess it really only matters if you invest a lot of time and energy into using this as a primary or a very important social outlet for oneself. Because it really shouldn’t matter whether somebody’s doing that or not – so why does it? logically, people are really pretty deeply invested in site shenanigans. Maybe even more so than they are the actual weather ha ha.. Something like that

[Great Snow 1717]

4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I think it’s also kind of a state of cultural aspect, too. You know it’s like the Internet +20 years? People used to be a little bit timid about their approach to using the Internet especially in these social media platforms… It took a while for the general population to become brazen and realize they could operate in the anonymity on the web and act like total assholes. That’s definitely going on/more ubiquitous right now in these “wired” societies.
 

As far as what it means for this forum …I mean not a lot of people in here are really assholes but there is still some of that kind of tendency to ignore the person who is saying what they don’t want to hear.  Heh.
 

Contributing in here to hopefully gain recognition as somebody who’s got some insights to offer, left, right and up or down you’d better make sure you are angling your delivery otherwise as was said in Caddyshack, “Oh ho well an you ain’ geddin no coke!”

It is near impossible to make a counter argument to the bolded.

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

That too.

but you know I guess it really only matters if you invest a lot of time and energy into using this as a primary or a very important social outlet for oneself. Because it really shouldn’t matter whether somebody’s doing that or not – so why does it? logically people are really pretty deeply invested in site shenanigans. Maybe even more so than they are the actual weather ha ha.. Something like that

Both the reverse psychology and the over-zealous positive hype are manifestations of emotion over science and objectivity. They both degrade the integrity of the discussion from a scientific standpoint.

Everyone is susceptible to it, but controlling it as much as possible will lead to more accurate forecasts and better dialogue.

[CoastalWx]

8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Hype sells, but reverse psychology is also rampant on here. Just downplay and poo-poo every event so you can convince yourself that you are not "invested emotionally" in a winter or a storm threat.

And then miraculously surprised when it occurs?