Winter 2022-2023 Conjecture

[George001]

Im extremely bullish on this coming winter for our region, I’m not buying the mild Jan and Feb at all. The late increase in tropical activity this fall is leading to us avoiding a low ACE season. The early Siberian snowcover data, La Niña peaking in the fall instead of later in the winter like last year, ect makes me think we have a good chance at getting buried. It will likely have its mild periods as all winters do, but the rapid weakening of the Nina I think could lead to a monster Feb and or March. Nina climo is favorable during Dec and Jan, and unfavorable during Feb and Mar so the early peak of the Nina could mean that we are getting the typical Nina Dec and Jan, but not the mild Feb and Mar. It’s weather so there’s never any guarantees, but I like our chances right now. I’ll take this look over a moderate or strong nino any day.
 

 

 

[snowman19]

20 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, its off to a good start, but lets see where we are at near the end of October.

The amount of people already spiking the football on twitter on 10/7 is crazy. One meteorologist from PA (no, not JB or Henry) is calling for the coldest and snowiest winter ever in history for the east coast. I’m not a fan of this index or Cohen and I think it has lead to monumental busts over the last 10 years, but you have to wait until 11/1 to really judge how well or not well Siberian snowcover ended up. It’s the entire month averaged out like you said 

[40/70 Benchmark]

44 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

The amount of people already spiking the football on twitter on 10/7 is crazy. One meteorologist from PA (no, not JB or Henry) is calling for the coldest and snowiest winter ever in history for the east coast. I’m not a fan of this index or Cohen and I think it has lead to monumental busts over the last 10 years, but you have to wait until 11/1 to really judge how well or not well Siberian snowcover ended up. It’s the entire month averaged out like you said 

I will use it as kind of an aside, ancillary tool, like the QBO. For instance, here is how I incorporated it last season:

While it is clear that the polar vortex should not be overly consolidated early on in the season, a major disruption is far from imminent, and in fact, quite unlikely any time in the near future. Climatology dictates that any early season warming of the polar stratosphere is relatively unlikely to propagate downward and result in a severe disruption of the vortex. There are also a couple of notable metrics that imply that the vortex should endure any early assaults. According to research conducted by  Dr. Judah Cohen, the Eurasian Snow Cover Extent (SCE) and the Snow Advance Index (SAI), which are both measures of the snow build up in Eurasia, are positively correlated to subsequent disregulation of the vortex. This season, the SCE is merely near normal and below that of many recent seasons.

According to Cohen, the Snow Advance Index (SAI) is a paltry -1.4, both of which are suggestive that any major disruption of the polar vortex will occur later in the season rather than sooner. Thus its likely that any perturbations in the near future that aid in a wintery onset to the season are likely to be followed by a recovery and re-consolidation of the vortex as we approach the new year. However, there are mixed signals from Eurasia in the sense that during the month of October, a Eurasian snowfall dipole materialized that has been linked to a weaker polar vortex during the winter.

 

Courtesy of Judah Cohen

 

Although the piece also implies that such a phenomenon needs to be sustained throughout the month of November in order for the correlation to be viable, so this is something that bares watching. 

Given the preponderance of evidence between extended guidance and an already modestly perturbed polar vortex, confidence is above average that there will not be a strong vortex from the middle portion of November and into the holiday season, although there will likely be periods of recovery. It will ultimately persevere.

This outcome is also supported by the analog composite, which in hindsight accurately predicted one of the warmest months of October on record throughout the northeast.

 

Note that while I incorporate it into my conceptualization of how the season will evolve, its not the center piece of my outlook. I think it has value like any other tool does, but it was likely misused several years back, when it first came out and its value was probably overstated.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Society today is so geared towards instant gratification, which fuels this incessant crusade for that "silver bullet" with respect to seasonal forecasting that just doesn't exist. Its a puzzle and you try to gather as much info in order to properly fit as many pieces as you can in order to provide the clearest and most accurate picture.

[40/70 Benchmark]

10 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Society today is so geared towards instant gratification, which fuels this incessant crusade for that "silver bullet" with respect to seasonal forecasting that just doesn't exist. Its a puzzle and you try to gather as much info in order to properly fit as many pieces as you can in order to provide the clearest and most accurate picture.

Its like that scene from Tommy Boy, when he explains how he gets too excited and kills the  sale/deal...that is the met community with respect to new seasonal forecasting tools like the SAI. lol

[CoastalWx]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Its like that scene from Tommy Boy, when he explains how he gets too excited and kills the  sale/deal...that is the met community with respect to new seasonal forecasting tools like the SAI. lol

"Oh God I'm burning alive!!!!"     

[Ginx snewx]

6 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Society today is so geared towards instant gratification, which fuels this incessant crusade for that "silver bullet" with respect to seasonal forecasting that just doesn't exist. Its a puzzle and you try to gather as much info in order to properly fit as many pieces as you can in order to provide the clearest and most accurate picture.

Don't care how we get there but my call is 83 inches here. Good retention year as well.

[Typhoon Tip]

"It doesn’t hurt here.  I doesn't hurt here.  It hurts riiight here"

[SnoSki14]

Raindancewx winter forecast has an epic torch this winter (2011-2012 style) with well below normal snows for the east 

[CoastalWx]

13 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

Don't care how we get there but my call is 83 inches here. Good retention year as well.

Beer?

[forkyfork]

my forecast is in

[snowman19]

57 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

my forecast is in

If this eastern IO convection continues into winter that might not be far from the truth. So far this fall we have seen very persistent and consistent eastern IO/Maritime Continent forcing, really since August. If that’s where the forcing is going to set up this winter, once the wavelengths change, we are in big trouble 

 

[SnoSki14]

6 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

If this eastern IO convection continues into winter that might not be far from the truth. So far this fall we have seen very persistent and consistent eastern IO/Maritime Continent forcing, really since August. If that’s where the forcing is going to set up this winter, once the wavelengths change, we are in big trouble 

 

Ok but you also think every winter will be a torch. It's like JB saying every winter will be cold & snowy. 

Eventually one of you will be right though much heavier lean on the warm side for obvious reasons. 

[snowman19]

3 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Ok but you also think every winter will be a torch. It's like JB saying every winter will be cold & snowy. 

Eventually one of you will be right though much heavier lean on the warm side for obvious reasons. 

That is not my opinion, that is fact. If the main forcing is in the eastern IO, it’s lights out. New England may be ok with Maritime Continent forcing, but everything south of there is screwed. A lot can change between now and December however 

[WinterWolf]

On 10/8/2022 at 11:35 AM, snowman19 said:

That is not my opinion, that is fact. If the main forcing is in the eastern IO, it’s lights out. New England may be ok with Maritime Continent forcing, but everything south of there is screwed. A lot can change between now and December however 

Oh boy….winter is toast before we’re even half way through October.  Raindance and Snowman 19 on the same page.  Color me skeptical though.
.   

[MJO812]

On 10/8/2022 at 11:27 AM, SnoSki14 said:

Ok but you also think every winter will be a torch. It's like JB saying every winter will be cold & snowy. 

Eventually one of you will be right though much heavier lean on the warm side for obvious reasons. 

Clockwork

[MJO812]

On 10/8/2022 at 11:35 AM, snowman19 said:

That is not my opinion, that is fact. If the main forcing is in the eastern IO, it’s lights out. New England may be ok with Maritime Continent forcing, but everything south of there is screwed. A lot can change between now and December however 

It's October and long range predictions have sucked.

[dryslot]

Voodoo doo doo.

[George001]

2 hours ago, MJO812 said:

It's October and long range predictions have sucked.

Yeah it’s way too early to write winter off. The La Nina = bad thing is nonsense, we have had plenty of great winters in La Nina’s. Even if the La Niña is moderate instead of weak that doesn’t mean it’s going to be a blowtorch with no snow. 2010-2011 was a strong La Niña, much stronger than this one is expected to be and had several monster blizzards.

[thunderbolt]

On 10/8/2022 at 11:35 AM, snowman19 said:

That is not my opinion, that is fact. If the main forcing is in the eastern IO, it’s lights out. New England may be ok with Maritime Continent forcing, but everything south of there is screwed. A lot can change between now and December however 

Just curious what is your opinion on How winter is going to turn out

[40/70 Benchmark]

On 10/8/2022 at 4:21 AM, SnoSki14 said:

Raindancewx winter forecast has an epic torch this winter (2011-2012 style) with well below normal snows for the east 

Normally I'd drop in that thread to compliment his work and try to spark some discussion, but I'm just done. It's a lost cause.

[snowman19]

6 hours ago, MJO812 said:

It's October and long range predictions have sucked.

Really? Because you seem to love when Joe Bastardi puts out his yearly Groundhog Day winter wishcast…sorry, I mean forecast for a cold and snowy winter in the east

[Typhoon Tip]

On 10/6/2022 at 5:17 PM, cleetussnow said:

It is.  Its the Snow Advance Index.  The problem with it is there is no correlation to anything in terms of winter afaik.  Its was the speed of the snow advance or something like that meant something supposedly.  Not exactly sure.  

The concept makes sense at a glance so seems plausible but doesn't appear to have any skill.  
 

 

Yeah I wasn’t asked but … the notion of its usefulness being that it characterizes early behavior of the field is essentially right.

At a somewhat more discrete level… from what I gather, lagged statistic correlation to winter suggests that whatever the environmental factors producing early proficiency are, … they tend to last. Think of the study as exposing the tone setter - It just doesn’t really delve deeper into what those factors are the last I had looked into the matter… The correlation like all correlations in nature are not one to one, either. There’s that… plus without knowing what the factors are makes the correlation in general rather shaky as a predictive guide. 

[Typhoon Tip]

16 hours ago, WinterWolf said:

Oh boy….winter is toast before we’re even half way through October.  Raindance and Snowman 19 on the same page.  Color me skeptical though.
.   

Considering that 70 or 80% of the months since the year 2000… during the recency of a climate change’s “hockey stick“ rise…, have all ‘winded’ their way to being above normal (however extreme notwithstanding) it’s a safe bet that demonstrative trend would continue.

As winter weather enthusiasts we naturally hold out for that 30 or 20%…lol.  But, it becomes even less likely to total glorious winters when needing 30 or 20% return rate to succeed all three months of DJF. 
 
Taller order

But that is in deference to temperature.  Most involved in this engagement are actually after the experience of snow… And I would argue just based on my own experience interacting over the years that it’s mostly they are after the drama in the cinema as it’s provided by models and meme, preceding the snow - but that’s another discussion.   

As far as appealing to that motivation…we can also be decimals above normal and still have a very severe winter with some nested extreme cold outbreaks… couching significant winter storms.  To that end  we really only need five or six decent events if not two juggernauts, to get a snow total above seasonal normal. In a lot of ways February 2015 nicely illustrates this concept when considering that winter as a whole … But in this era of elevated pwat due to climate change, helps that.  
 

So there’s some interpretive argument there where enough in between days are warmer than normal that a month or winter mean on whole may statistically belie the experience. 

[weathafella]

On 10/8/2022 at 4:21 AM, SnoSki14 said:

Raindancewx winter forecast has an epic torch this winter (2011-2012 style) with well below normal snows for the east 

I just read the whole thing and that’s not what he said.  He did allude to October 2011 and mild for New England but snowfall not far from normal (80-90% for most of us).   2011-12 brought about 20% of normal snow for much of SNE.

[snowman19]

32 minutes ago, weathafella said:

I just read the whole thing and that’s not what he said.  He did allude to October 2011 and mild for New England but snowfall not far from normal (80-90% for most of us).   2011-12 brought about 20% of normal snow for much of SNE.

Snowski loves doing this. He deliberately misquotes people and greatly exaggerates. He also flip flops like a fish out of water. He has been doing this in the NYC forum for years

[SJonesWX]

15 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Snowski loves doing this. He deliberately misquotes people and greatly exaggerates. He also flip flops like a fish out of water. He has been doing this in the NYC forum for years

he also apparently doesn't realize that a shitty winter in NJ usually does not translate to a shitty winter in New England

[SnoSki14]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

Snowski loves doing this. He deliberately misquotes people and greatly exaggerates. He also flip flops like a fish out of water. He has been doing this in the NYC forum for years

And you think every winter will be 01/02 & 11/12

59 minutes ago, SJonesWX said:

he also apparently doesn't realize that a shitty winter in NJ usually does not translate to a shitty winter in New England

That's true just saying raindancewx had very warm anomalies for the east. Doesn't mean he'll be right though. 

Warm anomalies could still generate near normal or even AN snows in the right pattern 

[tamarack]

2 hours ago, SJonesWX said:

he also apparently doesn't realize that a shitty winter in NJ usually does not translate to a shitty winter in New England

And vice versa.  A recent NNE winter that stunk in NJ was 2007-08, about 160% of normal snowfall at the nearby co-op in the Maine foothills and the snowiest winter on record at CAR but <50% in NJ.  The best converse might be 1960-61, which dumped a few inches past 100 at my place.  The 3 biggies, 12/11-12, 1/19-20 and 2/3-4 brought a total of 42.5" at NYC, 56.7" at EWR and 60-65" at Jersey Highland sites including mine.  The same co-op that had 160% snowfall in 2007-08 totaled 5.5" from those 3 blizzards and finished well BN for the season.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

And you think every winter will be 01/02 & 11/12

That's true just saying raindancewx had very warm anomalies for the east. Doesn't mean he'll be right though. 

Warm anomalies could still generate near normal or even AN snows in the right pattern 

At least this will be one season in which I won't have to deal with him passively aggressively insinuating that I copied his forecast.