512high Posted October 5, 2022 Share Posted October 5, 2022 On 10/3/2022 at 8:34 AM, MarkO said: How are the snow depths in Siberia? Speaking of which, has Judah Cohen spoken about this winter? He waits about another month or so for Ray's outlook then he gives his thoughts lmao 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 5, 2022 Author Share Posted October 5, 2022 12 hours ago, 512high said: He waits about another month or so for Ray's outlook then he gives his thoughts lmao I agree Judah is a better researcher than forecaster, but what I like about him is that he presents on social media as very humble and engaging....he is also a snow weenie, which guys like Fisher are not, and it irritates me. I am sure Judah has an ego, but he does a good job of not being condescending like so many big names are. Not arrogant at all and very responsive. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 5, 2022 Author Share Posted October 5, 2022 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Looks just like December 2000: 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 5, 2022 Share Posted October 5, 2022 Another ratter. Fantastic 1 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted October 5, 2022 Share Posted October 5, 2022 28 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Another ratter. Fantastic Dec 2000 led into a good-to-great winter. Maybe "another ratter" refers to a different winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 5, 2022 Share Posted October 5, 2022 11 minutes ago, tamarack said: Dec 2000 led into a good-to-great winter. Maybe "another ratter" refers to a different winter? Most thinking is a decent Dec this year and a furnace Jan/ Feb. We’ll see but for now not much is pointing to a good snowy winter . At least in SNE. Nina’s stink 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stadiumwave Posted October 5, 2022 Share Posted October 5, 2022 European model updated Nov & Dec look good. Strong -NAO NOV DEC We might have a fun Dec afterall if that verifies. Jan & Feb look like crap but plenty of time for that to change. I'm as optimistic for an earlier start to winter as I've been in a long while. This kind of enhanced my thoughts over the last month. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted October 5, 2022 Share Posted October 5, 2022 7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Most thinking is a decent Dec this year and a furnace Jan/ Feb. We’ll see but for now not much is pointing to a good snowy winter . At least in SNE. Nina’s stink I think 10-11 was a Nina…that was a fabulous winter. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stadiumwave Posted October 5, 2022 Share Posted October 5, 2022 1 minute ago, WinterWolf said: I think 10-11 was a Nina…that was a fabulous winter. MJO is similar to that fall although that MJO wave was much stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCloser24 Posted October 5, 2022 Share Posted October 5, 2022 2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: I think 10-11 was a Nina…that was a fabulous winter. It was also accompanied by a strong -NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 5, 2022 Share Posted October 5, 2022 I would say the Pacific doesn't look like Dec 2000....that's a -PNA look with the huge heights near the Aleutians and some subtle troughiness near western Canada. But that is still a great look with big poleward Aleutian ridge and -NAO....reminds me a bit more of Dec 2010, though obviously 2010 had pretty extreme blocking. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 5, 2022 Author Share Posted October 5, 2022 10 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I would say the Pacific doesn't look like Dec 2000....that's a -PNA look with the huge heights near the Aleutians and some subtle troughiness near western Canada. But that is still a great look with big poleward Aleutian ridge and -NAO....reminds me a bit more of Dec 2010, though obviously 2010 had pretty extreme blocking. Not as amplified as Dec 2000 out west, sure, but that doesn't look like much of a -PNA to me. December 2000 was a monster PNA, so I agree in that respect, but its not December 2021, either. Its closer to 12/2000 than 12/2021. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry's Weather Posted October 5, 2022 Share Posted October 5, 2022 Nov certainly looks neg PNA according to the charts above. Just positive anomalies everywhere shrouds the underlying isobars Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 5, 2022 Author Share Posted October 5, 2022 1 minute ago, Henry's Weather said: Nov certainly looks neg PNA according to the charts above. Just positive anomalies everywhere shrouds the underlying isobars Agree. Some signs Novie could get mild...at least for a time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry's Weather Posted October 5, 2022 Share Posted October 5, 2022 November looks like a gradient look, not super (anomalously) cold. December looks better. Both look wintry 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 5, 2022 Author Share Posted October 5, 2022 1 minute ago, Henry's Weather said: November looks like a gradient look, not super (anomalously cold). December looks better. Both look wintry A gradient look in November isn't very wintery for most highly populated areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 5, 2022 Author Share Posted October 5, 2022 Can anyone post January, Feb and March? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 5, 2022 Author Share Posted October 5, 2022 30 minutes ago, stadiumwave said: European model updated Nov & Dec look good. Strong -NAO NOV DEC We might have a fun Dec afterall if that verifies. Jan & Feb look like crap but plenty of time for that to change. I'm as optimistic for an earlier start to winter as I've been in a long while. This kind of enhanced my thoughts over the last month. December doesn't look that cold to me.....I think the coast/lower elevation could struggle some... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 5, 2022 Share Posted October 5, 2022 4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Not as amplified as Dec 2000 out west, sure, but that doesn't look like much of a -PNA to me. December 2000 was a monster PNA, so I agree in that respect, but its not December 2021, either. Dec 2021 is the most negative PNA on record for a monthly value....so yea, people shouldn't be associating a conventional -PNA with December 2021. It's like people associating a conventional -NAO with February 2010. Euro's -PNA is a pretty good look for us since the Aleutian ridge is very poleward and it's couple with a -NAO/AO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 5, 2022 Author Share Posted October 5, 2022 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Dec 2021 is the most negative PNA on record for a monthly value....so yea, people shouldn't be associating a conventional -PNA with December 2021. It's like people associating a conventional -NAO with February 2010. Euro's -PNA is a pretty good look for us since the Aleutian ridge is very poleward and it's couple with a -NAO/AO. Yea, hyperbole on my part to accentuate the point, but that is a pretty marginal -PNA IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 5, 2022 Share Posted October 5, 2022 19 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Can anyone post January, Feb and March? They probably aren't very good because the composites look like this.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 5, 2022 Author Share Posted October 5, 2022 56 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: They probably aren't very good because the composites look like this.. Yea, I have those...meant the single months from Wxbell. Thanks, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 5, 2022 Share Posted October 5, 2022 That composite blows. Hopefully wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 5, 2022 Author Share Posted October 5, 2022 7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: That composite blows. Hopefully wrong. I think DJF is serviceable with a cold source region, but JFM is pretty rough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 5, 2022 Share Posted October 5, 2022 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I think DJF is serviceable with a cold source region, but JFM is pretty rough. If January sucks, I'll become a joint Litchfield Libations and Torch Tiger type poster...with a little Fisher sprinkled in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 5, 2022 Share Posted October 5, 2022 16 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: That composite blows. Hopefully wrong. He does it every year like clockwork. JB Jr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 5, 2022 Share Posted October 5, 2022 18 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: He does it every year like clockwork. JB Jr Who? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted October 5, 2022 Share Posted October 5, 2022 December into early Jan still looks good... there's a legit signal for blocking, particularly in the NAO region I do agree that it looks gross as we head into Feb though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stadiumwave Posted October 5, 2022 Share Posted October 5, 2022 JAN...keep in mind it's a monthly mean. So, that particular run is probably the tail of 2 halves of JAN by looking at FEB. Probably 1st half of Jan similar to periods of DEC & 2nd half of JAN with periods FEB looking. Keep in mind this is simply seasonal guidance & absolutely none of them have massively high skill except for OCT. Next month NOV & so on. However, we can spot strong signal features that may be hints of something to consider. JAN FEB 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted October 5, 2022 Share Posted October 5, 2022 I never put any stock in those looks this far out….even when they look good. Feb is 4 months from now…my god just flip a coin at this point/range. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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